Oil Will Be Gone in 50 Years: HSBC
We will not care if Warren Buffett is right and all cars will be Electric in twenty years time, but we need to put a lot of things together to survive this transition and keep our lifestyle affordable in the West. This warning from HSBC this time is one of the many and with ongoing another Peak Oil in Libya all investors should take notice.
Progress in the West so far is very slow - now Japan tragedy will bring its toll to this development, but it can also provide opportunity for the new players to enter Lithium Batteries and Electric Cars markets. Diversity and secure supply of all food chain for the Electric Cars will be the priority now, starting with Lithium and Rare Earths.
"11. Lithium sell off on Japanese battery makers worries will be the great opportunity to accumulate your favorite plays in this strategic sector. Lithium Brine projects are not about only Lithium production, but mostly about Potash production by the output. Here is not only Investment Play on Electrification of our transportation, but the Food play as well.
12. Rare Earths will experience rotation from the leaders in the sector after last year unbelievable run into the underdogs of the sector with solid projects - the future is here in Lithium and REE - the way to produce, store and use the Power in the most convenient form - Electricity. It is all about Electric Cars, Batteries, Solar and Wind now.
You can meditate on our Catalyst thoughts and chose what you like - if the logic will be still in place according to your personal judgement.
CNBC.com | March 23, 2011 |
There could be less than 49 years of oil supplies left, even if demand were to remain flat according to HSBC’s senior global economist Karen Ward.
"Energy resources are scarce," Ward said in a research note. "Even if demand doesn’t increase, there could be as little as 49 years of oil left."
"Gas is less of a constraint, but transporting it and using it to meet transport demand is a major issue," she said. "Coal is the most abundant with 176 years left, but this is the worst carbon culprit."
If supplies were not constrained, the world would see a 110 percent jump in demand by 2050, equivalent to 190 million barrels a day, to fuel growth in the emerging world, Ward said.
But unless someone finds major new reserves this will not be possible and other sources of energy will need to be found.
"Energy security – defined in this instance as domestic energy production per head of population – will be an increasing concern," she said. "Diversifying to natural gas to ease the pressure on the oil market won’t overcome it since its supply is as geographically dense as oil."
Ward said she believes the most "energy insecure" regions are Europe, Latin America and India and predicts Europe in particular will find its energy situation getting worse.
"Europe is the big loser with many countries falling down or out of the league table of economic size," she said. "They could be losing their influence on the world stage just at the time when they are most vulnerable."
No Fast Cars
The threat of global warming is not going away and its impact will be most keenly felt in the developing world, HSBC said.
"The ‘solution’ requires greater energy efficiency and a switch in the mix of energy as well as using ‘carbon capture’ technology to limit the damage of fossil fuel use," Ward said.
"We have become terribly complacent in the way in which we use energy," she added. "The lowest hanging fruit is in the transport sector. Smaller, more efficient cars will get you from A to B, just not as quickly."
As the Japanese authorities work around the clock to avoid a nuclear disaster there is a risk that nuclear power generation will see investment cut back at a time when it was expected to play a far bigger role.
"If Fukushima results in a two-decade freeze on plans, as we saw following the Chernobyl disaster in 1986, then renewable energy will have to play an even larger role, or efficiency improvements would have to accelerate further," Ward said. "A reduced role for nuclear energy would make meeting carbon limits even more challenging."
"Government foresight on a scale not seen for 40 years will be needed to chart the route for the next 40 – at a time when the public sector in the OECD has perhaps the least capacity in decades to make strategic investments in new infrastructure."