Monday, December 25, 2006

Google update, Tenke mining chart, TNR gold development.

I can not post my usual format now so you have to make some work, few notes:
- after last post on Daily GOOG slipped under MA50which is now became resistance;
- on Weekly GOOG developed SELL with MACD crossover;
- stock is just above support of previous tops of shoulders in FIRST TOP in Jan 2006 and Second Top in Triangle at 450.72;
- Point-and-Figure chart is pointing to Reversal with TP of 416, which will be only temporary resistance on its way back in my opinion.
Tenke mining - spot the difference: consolidating on Daily with solid support in 15.0-15.3 CAD, break out on Weekly with testing the resistance level, P&F TP is 24CAD short term. Many new developments will be in the next 1Q 2007:
TNR Gold just in the beginning of Argentina exploration season we will be for an update and latest news from Minera Andes are encouraging: this is North Property which belongs to TNR.V optioned to Xtrata and then to MAI.V, Minera Andes is making new drilling on combined property and initialized scoping study to evaluate potential of the deposit:
New PP at CAD0.20 and Warrants at 0.25 is making nice floor for good news acceleration in stock Value Recognition.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to Everyone.

I am on vacation and will post only ocationally.

Thursday, December 14, 2006

Google is officially preparing to the Crash

We are talking about new incentive plan here, apart from usual "world spread" innovation I can find only one Real reason: stock is not going much higher and Insiders are the best people to know it and are not ready to work just for salary and worthless stock options. Apart from latest hype Google did not make much this year as stock, slowing growth and rising Capex will compress Free Cash Flow and stock will fall, technical picture is telling about it very loudly.
Needless to say I am in agreement with Scott Cleland:
"Analyst Scott Cleland weighs in with a list of negatives. I don't agree with any of them.
Cleland says the new plan will enable employees to "rush for the exits", creating a short-term culture in which employees don't care about the company's long-term value. He says a restricted stock plan would be much better, because it is long-term focused. What he may be missing is that the new options vest on the same schedule as the old ones and on the same type of schedule that "restricted stock" would vest. Employees will not be able to sell the new options sooner than the old options. They will just be able to collect some of the "time value" of the options that they would otherwise give up if they did not hold the options to term. This feature might encourage employees to sell earlier, but it should not trigger a rush for the exits any more than a cash salary would trigger one.
Cleland says the new program tells us that Google is having trouble hiring enough smart people because the stock price is so high (implication: they know it's overvalued). This may be true, but it doesn't undermine the idea of transferable options.
Cleland suggests that the program will lead to even more dilution for shareholders. This is only true if Google grants more options than they would have under the old program. They will probably do exactly the reverse: grant fewer options (because each option will be worth more). What Cleland may be missing is that by "transfering" their options to an investment bank, the employees will NOT be exercising the options. They will merely be selling them to another party (which may or may not exercise them at some future date). What matters is the number of options granted, not whether/when they are transferred.
Cleland says Google is arrogantly "innovating without permission" and should have checked with the SEC. According to Google, they DID check with the SEC. And, again, it's hard to see why the SEC would have a huge beef with an idea that's better for both shareholders and employees.
More alleged negatives? (I'm sure there are some--I just haven't heard any good ones yet)."

Monday, December 11, 2006

Tenke Mining made solid New High on Rising Volume

While Google is fighting with Common Sense, few guys are busy buying undervalued assets of Tenke mining ( CAD18.1), maybe they are the same guys which are advising you to buy...Google with Target Price of 600. I have been there...with strong Buy on Enron, Worldcom, Tyco...etc. We have got only one luxury in exchange for slipping away Time and our ability to Judge and make Decisions, it is Wisdom and life becoming History which can always teach something because nothing is really changing...

Google to Be afraid or Not to Be afraid?

Will or will not Big guys create competitor to YouTube will be dictated not by their ability to do so but by potential of the video market and their fight with mortal enemy to their copyrights: Google, which is violating any possible IP rights. Google is not more than very good index of Library, you can easely find any book, but you are coming for a book, and those who write them will prevail. Technical picture is predicting deteriorating fundamentals: monetising of YouTube will take much longer time and its "juicy business" at the first glance will turn out to be Capital Flash System which will become one more constrain on slowing growth of revenue and Free Cash Flow.

Sunday, December 10, 2006

Google: Mark Cuban: Online Video Ad Market Will Collapse

How much Deal with YouTube and "Explosive Growth of Video Ads" priced into Google stock valuation?!%20%20You%20are%20now%20logged%20in.

Media Giants Plot to take on YouTube

", China's huge search engine, may soon announce an agreement with Microsoft. So it begins. China and Microsoft: A scrappy duo that's the world's last hope against the evil they call "Google." "

Investment Thesis: Google will bring markets down, USD will depreciate, Gold, Silver, Uranium, Energy and other Things will prevail. CS

"If you would like to discuss USA economy go to China this week" - USD is melting down, take a break read "Empire of debt". No solutions, it is needed: to inflate out Debts, but move Must be gradual otherwise Financial shock will be unsustainable. I do not believe and hope that it will not happen - "the end of the world". Chinese are sitting on the Bomb of bursting USD so they will cooperate to the extend of Common Sense, so the move will be "gradual" but it will be enough to Explode Tiny PGM markets and particularly Juniors. In order to hedge themselves and to sustain explosive growth of new SuperPower China and Bricks (Brazil, Russia, India, China) are securing with available dollars Real Assets all over the world. It is government policy and they are acting very aggressively. Look no further then Tenke mining ( the project will rely on Chinese building railroads in Africa, be sure not for charity, but to be able to ship goods smoothly into the Dragon hungry mouth. The real War I hope will be prevented with changing Power in USA, but the WAR for Assets is just in its infancy. Changing of power in USA could coincide with Bear market important Low in General market. Study a lot, be the first to secure Mud in the Ground with Gold/Silver/Uranium/Copper Hope in it, management is crucial, discipline and common Sense. According to Jim Paplava reinflation will prevent markets from crash and reinflation means deteriation of USD and explosive growth in Gold and Silver. He used to be in the "Crash Camp" and from Spring changed his position to Reinflation. I still personally think that we should not take it for Granted and Mr Market will show its maniac depressive stance. So part of my positions are in Puts on Tech, Google - Indicator of Irrational Exuberance, Housing and Retail. If crash will not happen I will consider it as insurance and unrealized opportunity to increase my Core position. If something will Trigger Crash of any magnitude all markets could dip in the beginning and it will be good opportunity to increase Juniors positions with money made in Puts. All these are incredible risky and you should not trade your lunch on it. Just think for a while and decide for your Money the place to be: overinflated in Hopes of Saving the world ADVERTISEMENT Company which is advertising to overburden in Debts Consumers Things that they Are Not Needed or Things itself in the Raw State of Mud with Guys who knows how to find them and have proven record to turn this Mud into cash and this Mud itself is First Necessity for everyone who just flushed the toilet first time in their life with joy and wonder. (No offence here fox - you are the driving force of the New Economy in Real Things).

HUI place to be, particularly Juniors with most OZ in the ground

Google weekly Second Top in Reversal Double Top pattern

Google daily Reversal Head-and-Shoulders

Friday, December 08, 2006

Tenke mining Conference Call

This one is going to be Hard Currency, ultimate ATM machine to sell slowly at much higher levels to acquire juicy juniors:
Mention number of Analyst and Argentina properties outline...

Uranium Juniors

Couple of days ago Uranium gang looked weekly overbought to me, taken profit on few positions STM.v,, half of JNN.v, ALS.v, some Australian will sell half. Down the road will be very good opportunity to reEnter the sector. Rotated money into silver gang which is at weekly buy at the moment.

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Tenke Mining Receives Construction Approval From Phelps Dodge

This is what was discussed here "as fireworks" and Bull Market: Tenke Mining broke through previous MAY Top, new highs to come now...
"The initial project will focus on 103 million metric tons of oxide ore reserves. It is expected to be in full production in late 2008 or early 2009. During the first 10 years of mining, total annual production is projected to be approximately 250 million pounds of copper and 18 million pounds of cobalt. The life of the initial project is anticipated to be approximately 40 years." (!)
Few things to consider:
- PhD has approved construction meaning financing without further feasibility study release;
- if Freeport-McMoRan's Acquisition of Phelps Dodge will go as expected they are "told to be" even more aggressive;
-only half of the property explored, BHP was talking about ... 1.5 billion ton resource with Cu grade 3.0%, in all calculations for TP and their presentation accounted "only" 500 million tons;
-no Argentinean projects' value in this current price, action to be taken by management to unlock that value...

Google Clickfraud Issue is not going away

"There is little about Google's business that is more closely guarded than the issue of click fraud. Company officials say they take the issue seriously and have zero tolerance for fraudsters who generate bogus clicks on ads in order to profit. The search giant says it detects most fraudulent clicks before advertisers are ever billed and that industry concerns are overblown. But Google won't discuss specifically how it detects bad clicks or what percent it deems fraudulent, only that it's "less than 10%," saying such information could be helpful to would-be scam artists."

"Marketers are already anxious about fraud. A study by the Search Engine Marketing Professional Organization (SEMPO) slated for release on Dec. 4 found that 71% of advertisers are "worried" about click fraud, or describe it as a "moderate" or "significant" problem. That's down slightly from a year ago, but still a sizable issue. "

Monday, December 04, 2006

Disclosure and Strategy

The most important: you must stay solvent long enough for your Idea to be realized. (Google is perfect example)
Core positions hold throughout MAY sell off, increased with taken profit before blast and leverage: debt and/or options. Core Juniors GOLD/Silver/Uranium alternative energy, all bought much lower, portfolio back to May high (with Losses in Google Puts accounted) with Major Buy in HUI. Leverage is going down, profits from SNDK puts, SSRI calls rolled over into juniours. Short Google, SEMIS, Housing, Retail, General Markets. Watch out major development in WWAT.ob very risky but with new financing this baby is going sing.
Stop wasting your time here if:
1. You believe that Market is Efficient.
2. You feel very confident - Sell OUT right now and take a break for 1 month.
3. You think that USD is going up and Oil down.
4. You think that Chinese are stupid buying with USD all possible resources OIL/COAL/URANIUM/OIL Sands/Metals and not your beloved GOOGLE which will feed everybody on Mother Earth in Couple of years.
Until recent time from June Short strategy on Google is losing money and working as hedge to Major melt down in the Markets. Only Core positions and Counter trade in SSRI calls at bottom in May/June counterweight time mistakes in Google Trade. Could decisions be less emotional - for sure: then I would stop this excises, enjoy if it is up to your Vibe - a lot of money paid for this education.

Gold, Silver, Uranium, Tenke mining, Silverstone Resources only tiny amount of panicking GOOGlers' money will blow up "golden" Sector

GOOGLE: fighting Gravitation