Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Sell Off all across the Market. CS

No time for Panic, if you are in Goldies and Commodities, just look at this chart it is NASDAQ Vs HUI from Top of NASDAQ to the present day:
Today all stocks have been punished, the truth is that All Three Major markets NASDAQ, Dow and S&P are due for correction.Chinese are trying to cool off speculation with trade on Margin, same thing that has brought Great Depression in USA and Crash in 1929. But China's economy is still growing and will do so in years to come, this cool off will be the base for the steady growth. They will expand urbanisation and will need commodities for its development. China, India, Brazil and Russia have only get a taste of Consumer Power, middle class is only developing there and will become major driving force for new Power shift. Infrastructure development and rising consumer in these countries will be the most powerful engines for economy in the next decade. To the contrary Western developed economies and USA particularly are close to Recession. Consumers are overburden with debt and country's finance is a total mess. Housing Bubble is reducing consumer's ability to spend and is putting more and more people into Negative saving territory, contrary to Brics countries with rising savings which will become foundation of new investment cycle in those countries. Gold and Foreign reserves are rising in Russia and China as well. People and countries are having more money to invest and spend. While Wall Street was amused with Google China has bought out Half of Africa's resources, Russia is doing the same. With Crashing markets and Housing Bubble in USA rates will go down, USD will go down, Gold and Silver will go up, Juniors will go up, oil will go up, and alternative energy and uranium will follow after correction. Nobody knows the future we can only prepare ourself and think, think, think if we are right we will live the good life...

Sunday, February 25, 2007

Google considering Cash Flow

Very interesting piece from SeekingAlpha by Jeff Fischer:
"...True free cash flow is cash from operations minus capital expenditures minus tax benefits from stock options. Structural free cash flow (what Warren Buffett calls "owner's earnings") is net income from operations plus depreciation and amortization minus capital expenditures. These are two key ways to measure the health and growth -- or lack of it -- at a business. Both can show realities that mere earnings per share often miss. So, when we run the most recent numbers on Google (GOOG), look at what we find.

For the full twelve months of 2006, Google's true free cash flow grew 80% year-over-year, and structural free cash flow was up 89%. At first glance, this is a considerably stronger snapshot of results than we saw after the third quarter, when SFCF was only up 29% so far year-over-year, and the stock was at a heady 130x SFCF.
Today, in comparison to TFCF and SFCF value multiples of 80 and 83, the growth rates for the full year anyway are right on par, up more than 80%. That said, with sales up only 67% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, and FCF trending the same, of course growth has slowed quarterly since 2006 began. In fact, in the fourth quarter of 2006, FCF only increased 31.7% from the year before. And sequentially, fourth quarter operating cash flow was actually down 10% from the third quarter. Finally, for the full year, operating cash flow was up a relatively light 45%.
Given the much slower growth rates that are lurking under the covers, the value multiples given to the stock today will likely continue to contract. So, you can't look at the full year's 80% TFCF growth rate and assume that the 80x multiple is right-on, when you know that in the latest quarter the FCF growth rate was actually in the 30% range year-over-year. In other words, compared to the growth taking place today, the stock still has a very high premium attached. Therefore, our earlier argument, when the stock was at $505, still stands: Google is likely going to face a long period of value-multiple contraction, meaning: a flat-stock for at least a few years, when all is said and done.
This may unfold over time despite the fact that the shares look less expensive today on their P/E: a 47 P/E multiple while EPS grew 98% year-over-year in 2006 (aided in part by a much lower tax rate in the last quarter). Before long, though, growth in EPS will mirror the now slowing sales and FCF growth, growth that could slip into the 50%-30% (respectively) range by the end of this full year.
The challenges appear greater when you consider that last year capital expenditures more than doubled to $1.9 billion from $830 million, permanent headcount continued to vault, up 88% to more than 10,600 employees, and (partly in relation) operating margins on a GAAP basis dipped to 33% last quarter from 35% the year before. Additionally, share dilution ran at a high 6% last year, although management expects it to be 2% or less annually in the future..."

TNR Gold any news with Good Drilling Results will ignite the Rocket

Tenke Mining Cup and Handle pattern before new highs


Insiders including President of TNR have participated in PP in December for this programme:
"TNR Gold Corp. (“TNR”) is pleased to announce that a diamond-drilling program has been scheduled to commence as soon as weather and land conditions permit on its Tyner Lake Copper Project (“Tyner Lake”), located in southern BC, Canada. The program, funded through proceeds raised by the recently closed private placement (see January 25, 2007 news release), will consist of drilling three targets, generated by TNR’s 2006 3D-IP geophysical survey on the property, for a total length of approximately 800m – 900m.
The 2550 hectare Tyner Lake claims are located in the Guichon Creek Batholith area, which hosts the Highland Valley Copper Mine and is expected to average approximately 400,000 tonnes production of copper concentrate per annum (Teck Cominco Limited website). Exploration work in the late 1960s and early 1970s identified several copper-in-soil anomalies in and at the margin of a poorly exposed quartz monzonite intrusive. These copper anomalies, completely covered by overburden, were tested by electromagnetic and magnetic surveys that confirmed the presence of numerous conductive zones, which were never drill tested. TNR’s 2006 survey has provided TNR with numerous drill targets that will assist company geologists in testing the claim’s geology and in determining the exact nature of the anomaly.
To earn its 100% interest in Tyner Lake, TNR agreed to pay a total of CDN$100,000 to the vendor and expend a minimum $35,000 in exploration costs before June 15, 2007. TNR has already met its minimum exploration-costs requirement and has paid the vendor $25,000 thus far. The Tyner Lake Copper Property is subject to a 1% Net Smelter Return held by the vendor upon commencement of commercial production.
This news release has been prepared under the supervision of Paul Metcalfe, Ph.D., P.Geo, TNR’s qualified person on this news release.
On Behalf of the Board,
Gary Schellenberg,Director"


More on TNR Gold

Google against Microsoft, the best Present for Bill

Should Google consider really concentrate on their Core Product - Search and try to diversify Revenue streams within that expertise, Google would stay with us for years to come, with different valuation - lower market cap, but with dominant market share at least in Search. After their recent move on the field of MSFT I am not so sure about Google as Business Entity in the future, from Henry Blodget:
"...by targeting Microsoft's crown jewels, Google is risking not only failure but its own monopolistic dominance of its core business--search. Selling and servicing technology solutions is a fundamentally different business than selling and providing advertising solutions, and will eventually require the creation of an entirely new sales and service organization. No company in history has dominated the hearts and minds of both marketers and IT buyers, although several have tried. Even with Google's awesome talents and power, therefore, success is far from guaranteed. Especially because the opponent in question, a sleeping giant that has so thoroughly dominated its industry that not one but two governments were forced to try to stop it, won't likely give up without a fight."

Google YouTube less and less Value Left after the move from Viacom and CBS.

After the move from Viacom and CBS it is clear that there is no Such Thing as Monopoly in Video on the WEB, when Market will get that there is NO Such Thing as Monopoly in Search Google will be light headed and Sell Off will shave at least half of the market cap of today's level.
"Viacom said on Tuesday hundreds of hours of TV programing from its MTV and BET Networks and feature-length films from Paramount Pictures will be available to Joost users for free under a revenue-sharing deal between the two companies.Joost, which launched in January, was designed from the start to license professionally produced programing whereas YouTube was primarily designed for users to share home videos, though it has evolved into the Internet's biggest aggregator of TV and movie clips."
"On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that talks intended to allow Google's YouTube access to the media giant CBS' (CBS - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) popular clips -- from programs like The Late Show with David Letterman and CSI -- had unraveled, citing sources familiar with the deal.
Disagreements between the two companies included how long the deal would run, and while talks could always resume at a later date, the two companies are planning to collaborate only modestly for the time being. "
As usual FG nailed it pretty clear: From FG
"In a pretty unsurprising move (considering the recent legal demand that Google remove 100,000 of their videos from YouTube) Viacom announced that they were partnering with a new video distribution company called Joost- a small startup founded by the same guys who brought you Skype and Kazaa.It turns out that YouTube doesn't have any earth-shattering technology- there are dozens of sites out there offering the exact same functionality, and you can even buy the code for embedded video flash players on elance or rentacoder for about 75 dollars if you want to make your own YouTube clone. It isn't rocket science, and it isn't patented.
The wet dream in the Wall Street analyst community was that YouTube would become something like eBay - a 100% monopoly where there can only be one market winner. They hypothesized that since YouTube was the first video site to become popular that it would forever hold that title, and eventually command 100% of all video advertising revenue - the internet would have only one TV "channel" and it would be YouTube. Of course, that was just a steaming load of s**t. Everyone..."

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Silverstone Resources New Silver Wheaton in the making

Corporate Brochure



Web site




WorldWater and Power Corp introduction

"NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--A partner of solar-energy components company Emcore Corp. (EMKR) received an $8.26 million contract to build a solar-power facility for a California water authority, sending Emcore shares as much as 15% higher Friday. WorldWater & Power Corp., in which Emcore agreed to acquire a 31% equity stake in November, also is within weeks of inking a final deal to provide solar power to California's Fresno Yosemite International Airport under a state alternative-energy program, an airport official said. Emcore shares recently changed hands at $4.85, up 61 cents, or 14%, on Nasdaq composite volume of 1.71 million shares. Average daily volume is 948,745 shares. Earlier in the session, Emcore shares peaked at $4.89. Emcore, based in Somerset, N.J., didn't immediately return phone calls seeking comment. WorldWater Western Region Director Larry Slominski said directors at the Kern County Water Agency in California voted Wednesday to approve the $8.26 million contract award. An official announcement is slated for next week. WorldWater, of Pennington, N.J., will build the Kern County facility, which will be owned by the water authority, Slominski said. Meanwhile, Fresno Airport Planning Manager Kevin Meikle said WorldWater was selected to negotiate a final deal to build and operate the 2-megawatt solar facility on airport property. A total of three companies responded to the airport's request for proposals. The airport and WorldWater could reach a final agreement to submit to city council within weeks, Meikle said. "We're still working with them on all the details; it hasn't been formally awarded," Meikle said. "(But) the city is very excited about the project...It may be the first time in the state that you're putting in two megawatts (at once.)" Slominkski declined to comment on the Fresno project, citing ongoing negotiations, saying only, "It's significant. It's a leading-edge project." WorldWater Chairman Quentin Kelly reached in Boston also declined comment because of the negotiations. Meikle said the deal, which needs city council approval, would call for WorldWater to build and maintain the solar array. The airport would then enter into a long-term fixed-price power-purchase agreement, which he added typically spans about 20 to 25 years. Construction could begin as early as May on the Fresno facility, which ultimately could cover as much as 50% of the airport's power needs, Meikle said. The energy-cost savings to the airport would be immediate. The airport currently pays about 12.9 cents a kilowatt-hour while initial proposals call for the airport to pay WorldWater about 12.1 cents a kilowatt-hour, Meikle said. -James DeWeese; 201-938-5400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones NewswiresFebruary 23, 2007 14:15 ET (19:15 GMT)"

WorldWater and Power Corp Story to follow

HUI Break Out

Mines Management Break Out of DownTrend Channel

Sterling Mining Multy Year Reversal in the making with Break Out

Avino Silver and Gold mines finaly Break Out is Confirmed

Google is Locked in the DownTrend Channel

Sunday, February 18, 2007

HUI:Gold ratio at Buy Zone, Goldies are positioned to Outperform Gold

My reader from Q thank you for your comment

Of cause you are right that was a wrong entry for Stockcharts, late work, thank you for stopping by...



Saturday, February 17, 2007

Copper Fox Metals introduction

Technical picture is Here.
Latest PP at 0.65 CAD. One of the stocks in Commodities sector with biggest Factor known to me. Factor is defined as Ratio of Potential market Cap to recent market cap. Potential market cap is defined as 10% of Rock value of resources in the ground. Important Teck Cominco has back in right of up to 75% if they will buy they have to pay 4 times CUU.v expenditure before Feasibility study and CUU.v will keep 25% without any financing required from it. It is Silver, Gold, Cu and moly play. Copper Fox has an option to acquire Teck Cominco’s 93.4% interest in the Schaft Creek deposit and controls Rock value of 38.3 billion USD at Cu lb 2.5usd. With following assumptions: 10% of RV=3.8 bil USD, 25% =0.95 bil USD=1.1 bil CAD. 1.1 bil Cad + 80 mil CAD (4 times expenditure)=1.18 bil CAD With financing of 15 mil shares at 1.0 CAD to finish Feasibility Study CUU.v will have FD=87 mil shares. Potential Price Target=13.6 CAD, today price is 0.79 CAD. Factor is 13.6/0.79=17. I am in from 0.51-0.6 so far my Bull case is correct.
Educational purposes only, don't forget to think as usual.

Capstone Mining is before Break Out

Copper Fox Metals Break Out

Sterling Mining is Breaking OUT of Down Trend

Mines Management has Broken Out of Down Trend

Avino Silver and Gold Mines Close to Break Out

Friday, February 16, 2007

Google is losing Desk Search to Microsoft, is WEB Search under threat from Vista as well?

More on Google is here.
Panama and Vista are making life at Google harder and harder by the day. What will happen if customers of Vista will use more build in Search than Google and completely will switch to MSN for search? More and more customers could actually switch for using build in features without going out to Browser from different applications of Vista.
"SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Score one for Microsoft in its battle with Google Inc. Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry says Microsoft's software program to search home or office computers is winning customers away from Google . Chowdhry bases his conclusions on a survey he conducted of owners of Microsoft's new Vista operating system, which includes a desktop search feature. He found that many Vista owners that once used Google's desktop search feature have switched to Microsoft's. "Consumers we spoke with like Vista's search," Chowdhry wrote in a note to clients. "A strategic loss to Vista desktop search may indicate selective vulnerability of Google against Microsoft."


Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Google Read The Lips your business model can not be based on stolen Intellectual Property

It will start from Europe and will continue in Americas and it means that day when you can sell tons of ADS in Copyrighted material taken for nothing will never come. This ruling will open Pandora Box with law suits for Google. Once the guys will understand that Google will be sued by others they will not wait until Google will spend all its cash and sue by themselves, I am talking here about YouTube as well. The pressure on Google to institute more aggressive copyright protections and policies is mounting.
"BRUSSELS, Feb 13 (Reuters) - A Belgian court ruled on Tuesday that Google (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile , Research) may not reproduce extracts from a variety of Belgian newspapers, imperiling one of the web search leader's most popular services if other courts follow suit."
"Following a ruling in September, Google faced a potential 1 million euro per day fine for reproducing articles and was also forced to publish the judgment or pay a further 500,000 euros per day. The court on Tuesday cut the potential fine to 25,000 euros per day."

Google's Second Largest Shareholder Lowers Stake

Same old, same old: "Strong Buy" untill we will sell our shares:
"Google's Second Largest Shareholder Lowers StakeTuesday February 13, 5:41 am ET
Lon Juricic submits: In an amended 13G filing, Capital Research and Management disclosed a 6.3% stake (13.1 million shares) in Google (NasdaqGS: GOOG). This is down from the 14.25 million share stake the firm held for the quarter ended September 30, 2006. Capital Research and Management is the second largest Google shareholder. Fidelity is the largest shareholder with an 11.3% stake.

While one large shareholder selling out is not a major red flag, it should be noted. If Fidelity starts trimming its stake I would be concerned. The same guys that ran Google up and absorbed all the selling from management can quickly leave major footprints in the stock on the way down. Also, Google's decision not to split the stock could end up hurting them if big players want out.
Google has been under pressure since reporting earnings at the end of January.
I love Google, but we all know who controls the market."

Tenke Mining news from African Mining Congress

Mention where these news were posted:
As I wrote before Chinese are very active in the region, they are securing natural resources and other assets for worthless dollars which they have plenty (reserves are around 1 trillion USD). They are building railroads and roads to secure supply lines to feed their Dragon. Tenke mining will be bought out in the end and it is important that all Argentina and Chile properties will be spined off before that otherwise there will be no value for them in the purchase price. Dividend in kind like Capstone Mining did when they spined off Silverstone Resources comes to mind.
Apart from Chinese following the story about 17 investors now attending the Congress and will be visiting Tenke Fungurume site today. Feasibility study must be finished already and should be released in next couple of weeks.
"¡¡¡¡PHELPS Dodge Corp and Tenke Mining Corp expect to secure financing for their Tenke Fungurume project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by September, taking them a step closer to building the continent's biggest copper mine.¡¡¡¡2006Öйú½ðÈÚÄêÈÈËÎï»î¶¯ÆÀÑ¡
The two companies will borrow a "significant" portion of the US$650 million needed to build the 400,000-metric-ton-a-year mine, Tenke Chief Executive Officer Paul Conibear said in an interview in Zambia. Most of the money will be borrowed from export credit agencies and "multilateral" lenders, he said. Multilateral lenders include International Finance Corp, Bloomberg News said.
"We're looking at getting the debt in place in the third quarter," Conibear said at the African Mining Congress in Victoria Falls, Zambia. "There are very few commercial banks at the table."
Record copper prices and the peaceful elections last year have attracted miners back into the country, five years after the end of a civil war that left four million dead. The central African country, as big as western Europe, has about 10 percent of the world's copper reserves.
Phelps, based in Phoenix, and Tenke, based in Vancouver, own a combined 83 percent of the project. They favor multilateral lenders because of longer repayment periods, lower interest rates and their "political clout," Conibear said. N.M. Rothschild & Sons Ltd. is advising them on financing.
Gecamines, the Congo's state-owned copper producer, owns the balance of the project and doesn't have to fund any of its development cost."

Monday, February 12, 2007

Gold and Silver Nobody is interested in them again Kitco.com traffic

After spike in May 2006 with market Sell Off in PGM interest based on Kitco.com traffic came to lowest level compared to 2005 January bottom. I consider it is very positive because crowd is still chasing Technology and Google particularly. When Google Bubble will be bursted we will need just 1% of that money to spike a rally in Silver Juniors to new highs and it will happen as soon as people will realise that BULL in commodities is still very much Alive.

Google against Who Is Who in Hollywood and Broadcast business

"NEW YORK, Feb 12 (Reuters) - A group of major media companies has accused Google Inc. (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile , Research) of benefiting from the sale of pirated movies and providing business support to two Web sites suspected of offering access to illegal film downloads, the Wall Street Journal said on Monday."
What is most interesting here is the list of companies alleging Google of Evil doing:
"The media companies, which the paper said include News Corp. , Viacom Inc. , Sony Corp., General Electric Co.'s NBC Universal, Time Warner Inc. and Walt Disney Co. , allege that Google deliberately directed traffic to Web sites that were engaged in fostering piracy, the paper said, citing people familiar with the matter."
This is serious, as predicted here Content providers will not just sit and watch how their money are stolen with the speed of light in the bandwidth. Just one week ago on Bloomberg Disney CEO has put: we need to draw a line where the marketing becomes something different when actually we must be paid for(phrasing is mine S.). Authors writing books will prevail, not catalogs or even best searching engines in the libraries, all IP industries are threatened by Google approach and it is ridicules to think that it will be sustained in the long term or you can base your business model on it. Google is fighting on too many fronts right now and its core consumer product is deteriorating: any search engine which will be able to bring you really precious relevant results without ad spam will send Google into oblivion. Just look what happen to the web thanks to paid search now, how many percent of it is just parking sites full of ad spam without any original information. Do not go further then my Yahoo! back link counter on this blog: 30% of links are just parking sites with Key Words.

Sunday, February 11, 2007

Tenke Mining Cobalt Focus

From resent TNK.to presentation at the African Mining Congress:

"The cobalt price has averaged about $15/tonne in the last 30 years, but has varied between $30/tonne to less than $5/tonne in that time. This is owing to participation of traders in the market some of whom were “less than transparent”, said Conibear.
But with increased production from listed companies it would be easier to anticipate supply flows. As a result, the cobalt price would also stabilise, if not decline somewhat on average, he said. “It won’t be controlled by traders in favour of consumers and producers,” Conibear said."

"Annual cobalt supply is an estimated 55,000 tonnes/year, but Conibear thinks that’s “a murky figure”. This is partly owing to smuggled cobalt, mostly from the DRC.
Recognition of production in stronger hands, however, buyers would be more willing to buy the product and perhaps stimulate an industrial demand in the batteries of hybrid cars (S.). Cobalt is traditionally consumed in speciality steel and alloys manufacture."

Cobalt facts
Supply and Demand
Use of Cobalt

New Energy Security with GTL Gas-to-liquid use of Cobalt

I think the most exciting story is about growing Demand from hybrid cars

More on Tenke mining

Tenke Mining President Paul Conibear at the African Mining Congress

Technical picture for Tenke mining is here.
"A QUANTUM increase in annual cobalt production from Africa would trigger a structural improvement in the infamously volatile market, said Paul Conibear, CEO of the $700m copper and cobalt exploration company, Tenke Mining Corporation.
“There will be a stability in production that will stimulate demand,” said Conibear in an interview at the African Mining Congress, held in Livingstone, Zambia. “A whole new level of sophistication will come into the market.”

"Tenke Mining Corporation’s copper and cobalt mine, Tenke Fungurume mine, situated in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), is slated to produce about 8,000 tonnes of coblat/year, possibly increasing to 25,000 tonnes/year, said Conibear. And there were other producers also expected to lift production including Katanga Mining (3,000 to 4,000 tonnes), and Nikanor which could produce 25,000 tonnes/year. "

"The $650m Tenke Fungurume mine will see annual copper production beginning at 115,000 tonnes. However, an aggressive expansion plan backed by US firm, Phelps Dodge, which has a 57.75% stake in the mine, could see production increase to 400,000 tonnes/year. “The orebody can completely accommodate such an increase,” said Conibear."


Saturday, February 10, 2007

Canadian Capped Gold Index is before Break Out

Google new Challenge from Powerset on Tired Stock Price

Google's Technical picture is here.
"SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Powerset, a San Francisco-based start-up, said Friday it has signed an exclusive, open-ended license to use Internet search technology touted as a potential challenger to Google Inc.
The 40-employee start-up based in San Francisco licensed the technology from the developer, Xerox Corporation's Palo Alto Research Center. Financial terms of the arrangement weren't disclosed.
Powerset will start begin its first, public test of a search engine using the technology sometime later this year, Powerset Chief Executive Barney Pell said."
The truth is that Search is Commodity, and not in the good sense of this word with recent investment trend, but with its basic qualities which Are Indifferent to any other similar product from Yahoo!, MSN, ASK, Accoona you name it and switch cost is zero for consumer - competitor is just Click away. And now new guys are coming. Google is in free fall from here, Radio is not coming and its gone away founders will be competing with Google, YouTube Video Is No good and pipes are clogged." Will TV chief be sacked for his Own Opinion? CAPEX, Capex and more Capex on slowing growth and declining margins, next quick pit stop 450:

Tenke Mining is just before another fireworks

Apple there is Never one cockroach in the room

Google Close to Pit Stop at 450 but just to change the tires

Friday, February 09, 2007

Tenke Mining Update Gecamines Transparency Issue

"Gecamines Mining Contract Reviews Being Done `Calmly' (Update1)
By Antony Sguazzin
Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Gecamines, the state-owned copper mining company, said its review of contracts with foreign companies won't affect their operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
While the review may be of concern to investors, it is being carried out in a ``spirit of improvement,'' Paul Fortin, the company's managing director, said today at the Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town.

``It will be a review that is done objectively and calmly with discussions,'' Fortin said. ``It should be viewed as something that will not disturb your operations.''
Congo held its first democratic elections in four decades last year and is now trying to revive its economy after civil wars killed four million people and destroyed already limited infrastructure. The country has some of the world's biggest copper and cobalt reserves.
On Oct. 31, Fortin said in an interview that the equity stakes Gecamines holds in project will be looked and claims where little has been done to explore for metals or develop mines may be reclaimed.
Gecamines' accords with Phelps Dodge Corp., Global Enterprises Co. and Kinross Forrest will be reviewed after the World Bank questioned the transparency of the contracts, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 3.
To contact the reporter on this story: Antony Sguazzin in Johannesburg at asguazzin@bloomberg.net . "
I can not find any source with credible information from Liege Belgium where Congo Mining Workshop took place apart this post from StockHouse BB:
"Fortin on Tenke production
Congo Mining Workshop (01/12/2007) Liège-Belgium
Tenke-Fungurume production forecast:Copper in ktCu 2009=40 2010=40 2011=40 2012=65 2013=141 2014=141 2015=60 Cobalt. in ktCo 2009=02 2010=02 2011=02 2012=05 2013=009 2014=011 2015=08
Total for his presentation with Gecamines-partners
: DCP KCC KMT TFM SMK RMbut not CAMEC, AFRICO or Chinese like Covec, Hanrui or Wambao
Copper in ktCu 06=72 07=132 08=196 09=329 10=432 11=515 12=540 13=616 14=616 15=616 Cobalt in ktCo 06=13 07=17.6 08=21.7 09=28.1 10=34.5 11=43 12=46 13=56 14=57 15=52
DCP = NIKANOR = DRC Copper Project ( Tilwezembe - Kananga - KOV)KCC = KATANGA MINING = Kamoto Copper CompanyKMT = FIRST QUANTUM = Kingamiambo Musonoï Tailings SarlTFM = TENKE/PHELPS-DODGE = Tenke Fungurume MiningRM = METOREX = Ruashi Mining (Ruashi - Etoile)"
If it will be confirmed it means that Paul Fortin Managing Director of Gecamines Partner of Phelps Dodge and Tenke mining in Tenke Fungurume project is ALREADY counting production from this project in 2009 (in line with Tenke mining estimates) and question of Transparency in case of Tenke Fungurume Gecamines deal will be resolved and conditions reconfirmed in the nearest future. It will clear hopefully last political hurdle on the way of stock appreciation to its intrinsic value.

Google if you are still wondering about SELLOFF

Maybe this will help, scroll down, read and think, any arguments - ready to learn.

Google another "Revenue Stream" is questioned

I have already wrote about YouTube revelations from Google TV Chief:

"All it means, that day when you can sell tons of Ads in copyrighted material taken for nothing with broadcast quality will never come, YouTube means CAPEX, more CAPEX, and some more CAPEX: blades, electricity without any business model yet."

Now there is another blow from Radio ad market:

"CHAD AND RYAN STEELBERG, THE founders of an automated radio ad placement company purchased by Google in January 2006, have left the company."...
"Google bought dMarc for $102 million in cash plus the possibility of further payouts totaling up to $1.13 billion, if certain revenue targets were met. But last week, Valleywag.com, a blog covering Silicon Valley businesses, reported that a source close to dMarc said management and investors were unlikely to get more than $200 million under the terms of the deal."

Sales are not coming here...nothing apart from clicks was ever created at Google...or sorry here was it Overture?


Thursday, February 08, 2007

Tenke Mining presented by Freeport-MacMoRan

On March 14.03.2007 shareholders of Phelps Dodge and Freeport-MacMoRan will vote on merger and hopefully create World's Largest Publicly traded Copper Company . Tenke Fungurume deposit is presented by FCX (57.75% and Tenke mining 24.75% and DRC Gecamines 17.5%) as:

1. Believed to be largest Cu/Co project in the world today.
2. Less then Half of the concession 600 sq miles explored, cumulative length strike greater than 80 kilometers.


Google and Analysts Romance


Anthony Noto - Goldman Sachs
Mark Mahaney - Citigroup
Brian Pitz - Banc of America
Robert Peck - Bear, Stearns
Dave Joseph - Morgan Stanley
Safa Rashtchy - Piper Jaffray
Ben Schachter - UBS
Imran Khan – JP Morgan
Jordan Rohan - RBC
Capital Markets
Justin Post - Merrill Lynch
Christa Quarles - Thomas Weisel
PartnersHeath Terry - Credit Suisse
Youssef Squali - Jefferies & Co.
Doug Anmuth - Lehman Brothers
Paul Keung - CIBC World
MarketsMark May - Needham & Co.

Guys is Google still BUY? Where are you? Somebody do not listen to you, call Sequoia. Remember House will stay what will happen to you?

Google YouTube and Sequoia are Selling Shares of Google

"Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- YouTube Inc. founders and investors may reap as much as $1.53 billion selling Google Inc. stock they received when the video-sharing Web site was bought last year.
YouTube investors and executives including co-founders Chad Hurley and Steve Chen registered to sell 3.23 million shares, Mountain View, California-based Google said today in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Google bought San Bruno, California-based YouTube for $1.65 billion in November to tap the market for online video advertising. Hurley and Chen, who founded YouTube in February 2005, may each sell shares worth about $326.2 million as of today's closing price. Sequoia Capital, YouTube's largest investor, may sell shares worth $504.4 million. "
Very logical, who need to own these over hyped stocks, but why do not you like to wait until 600 bucks, all your Friends from the Wall Street screaming Buy and putting Price Targets on Google around 600. Do you know something better then them? Or it is all way back to 2000 "hype the staff why we are selling"?

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Google TV chief is not happy with YouTube

I think from track record of this guy Vincent Dureau he knows how to use 1.65 billion USD in more efficient way if you really would like to build TV over the Net and not just please your Funding Masters:
It seems that in so far away from Google headquarters "small" European Amsterdam Mr Dureau spoke from his heart and I believe him. looks like YouTube deal was masterminded before he joined Google, guy must be promised Funds and Freedom to build TV over the NET but then Google just spend 1.65 billion on YouTube, Sequoia does not mind thou. Now growth slows, costs are rising, margins compressed: Operational cash Flow in Q4 down 9% from Q3 and they Cut Capex in Q4 just to stay above the water (FCF is flat 2006 over2005), I bet Video was in the first lines of cutting CAPEX. Vincent does not look happy and as a real proffi he start talking. Clearly Question is: will he be sacked back home, or we will get New Spin to cover up the story. You know how hard the Company which would like "to make information available to everybody in the world" with its own secrets and Blogging there could not be called really this word. I can not believe at the moment that it was authorised Goggle's position.

Google YouTube New Revelations of Strategic Wisdom: Quality will never be close to TV and "Pipes are Clogged".

They spend 1.65 billion just to get it? No quality, no broadband:

"New Internet TV services such as Joost and YouTube may bring the global network to its knees, Internet companies said on Wednesday, adding they are already investing heavily just to keep data flowing. Google (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile , Research), which acquired online video sharing site YouTube last year, said the Internet was not designed for TV.
It even issued a warning to companies that think they can start distributing mainstream TV shows and movies on a global scale at broadcast quality over the public Internet.
"The Web infrastructure, and even Google's (infrastructure) doesn't scale. It's not going to offer the quality of service that consumers expect," Vincent Dureau, Google's head of TV technology, said at the Cable Europe Congress." (WOW! S.)
"One cable chief executive, Duco Sickinghe from Belgian operator Telenet (TNET.BR: Quote, Profile , Research), said it was "the best news of the day" to hear that Google could not scale for video." (I agree, it made my day as well S.)
All it means, that day when you can sell tons of Ads in copyrighted material taken for nothing with broadcast quality will never come, YouTube means CAPEX, more CAPEX, and some more CAPEX: blades, electricity without any business model yet. But Operational Cash flow already squeezed by rising Cost and slowing rate of revenue growth (margins are falling) will not allow to do it and already in Q4 we can witness when they Trimmed Capex just to keep Free Cash Flow above the water (flat with 2005 at least with MC/CFC=95 at 501USD)

Commodities now we can trade them as stocks

Buy and Sell at any time at your discretion, these ETFs allow you to chose particular commodity, sector or even all commodities basket. Same caution and reseach advised before establishing any position as with "normal" stocks.


Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Tenke mining recent developments

These days Paul Conibear is busy promoting Tenke Mining to Investment Bankers at Africa Mining Congress in Zambia, on February 13th, 2007 visit to Tenke Fungurume Copper Project is planed. Paradigm Capital is attending the congress and hosting dinner there. They are the guys who are following TNK.to, participated in PP and conducted Research on the company. Company has now new design of its website and Presentation is to follow, we should expect few positive things:
1. Gecamines issue should be resolved.
2. Definite Feasibility study should be issued by Phelps Dodge.
3. Financing of Tenke's part construction cost should be organised.
4. Argentina properties update where the drilling is under way.


Google and Analysts Romance will continue until the Last Drop

I have already get used to it: that they never ask any Really important questions, about click fraud, source of revenue, operational cash flow or Real Earnings which are below street expectations without Tax deals done in December just before end of the Q4, but this spin on Disaster is really amazing:

"BEIJING (AP) -- China's second-biggest Web portal Sohu.com Inc. said Tuesday its fourth-quarter earnings fell 32 percent, weighed down by higher costs, causing shares to drop in U.S. after-hours trading.
Quarterly earnings dropped to $6.1 million, or 16 cents per share, from $8.9 million, or 23 cents per share a year earlier. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial forecast a profit of 17 cents per share.
Revenue rose 16 percent to $34.4 million from the same period of 2005, but missed Wall Street's expectation for $35.5 million.
Sohu, which trails Sina.com among Chinese Internet content providers as measured by revenue, said the bulk of its sales came from online advertising. Ad revenue grew 23 percent year-over-year.
But results were hurt in part by a sharp rise in advertising costs. Brand advertising costs rose 66 percent to $7.1 million, while search-ad costs increased by 56 percent to $1.7 million over"
Looks for me like rather honest and straight forward reporting of Disastrous Q4 results, but I can not get it right without help from friendly Analyst:
"Analyst Safa Rashtchy of Piper Jaffray & Co. said Sohu's results were sound despite the lower earnings. He said a fall had been expected due to regulatory changes for wireless services that have hit revenues for all Chinese providers.
Sohu is still one of the best-positioned companies to profit from China's booming online ad market, he said.
"I thought it was a good performance," Rashtchy said. "Their advertising business is still very healthy."
The same guys are covering Google - they will see "results were sound despite the lower earnings" right until the last drop in share price.

Monday, February 05, 2007

Google actual earnings in Q4 2006 was only 2.8USD with normalised tax rate

I have already wrote about Slowing Growth, MC/FCF=95 against Yahoo!'s 28.9, falling Operational cash flow by 9% in Q4 over Q3, saturation point in traffic with Down Trend, Technical Damage, trimming of CAPEX to save Free Cash Flow which is barely flat, but everybody was exited about Earnings and how they "beat" the street. Another surprise here: 13% "Efficient Tax rate" was very handy this Q they have reported EPS 3.29. If we will read ER we will find out that Income before income tax was 1184733, we will apply stated by Google 26% Tax (which is also rather interesting rate) and so normalise tax rate within the year without One Time Benefit due to deal with IRS (they call it "APA" :"Our effective tax rate will be greater in 2007 under the APA than it would have been without it." Surprise, Never Sacrify Party for Tomorrow's Morning.) In plane English if this One Time benefit would not happen now Earnings will be ONLY 1184733*(1-0.26)=876.702 mln USD against 313459 mln shares with Q4 EPS=2.80! way below Street expectations. And the price for it - higher Tax rate in the future. If this deal was not stricken in December 2006 (!) stock will be already below 400 today. Very good timing and clever game as usual.

Sunday, February 04, 2007

Google another Blow from Yahoo!

I have posted before about Google Saturation Point and its Down Trend in Daily Reach it is interesting to find conformation:
"By Nathan Weinberg
Nielsen//Netratings has released their search engine market share numbers for December 2006, and their year-over-year gains show that Yahoo, while having just under half the market share of Google, is growing faster than Google is. They show Google with 3.035 billion searches in December, up 22.6% from the year before, and Yahoo with 1.412 billion searches, up 30.1% from December 2005. This is kind of shocking, given that conventional wisdom is that Google is outpacing Yahoo, as the Y! slowly falls behind."


Google Earnings Institutions Media Hype VS Common Sense Meditation. CS

I hope you have already get the idea what we are doing here, we are thinking. We do not hit instantly Buy button when Institutions are issuing Buy recommendation (we do not have one) and we never Trust our money or our Right to make Decisions to Anyone. We treasure this Freedom and grateful for it to exist in our life. It is not that we are so clever or arrogant or happen to know everything, we just have been there already in the land of quick money and Strong Buy recommendations on ENRON, WORLDCOM, TYCO...you name it - right to the edge of the cliff. We know from experience that if we would like to have a nice martini in a nice place we have to put some work into the process, we do not like to see the life in TV with some mad guys enjoying our money (you get the hint who are really Mad) we like TO LIVE the life and not be parted with our money buying on the tips and following investment advice. That is why we like to read, to think and are using very sophisticated software tools like CASIO calculator in our quest for Value and we are really enjoying it, otherwise it will be so boring. We like the BIG TRENDS, we never chasing 20 or 40 percent because we already know that Thousand things could go wrong on our way to "Home Run" and only enough Value Upside Realisation Potential could justify our Entry with Hard Earned Cash at the Right Time. That is why we like to Draw, pause, look from aside and put another line...it is more like Art for us. "It is not possible and everything is Efficient here" - will stop us educated reader, we will leave this battle to PhD at Universities and at Google (if they are not busy Selling). We have never found such thing (it is like with Weapons of Mass Destruction) - we happen to know different guy who would like to call him Sir and Mister Market (he could even prefer to call him Master but time has changed and we are different now and know how to handle his "maniac depressive" character) and he never get it straight, you know all these "Buy" and "contained inflation with all-excluded-inflationary-items", sometimes he gets nasty and Strong Innovative Companies (mostly in the area of accounting practices) are going into oblivion. Even whole economies or countries or their currencies sometimes seize to exist, because as Sir John Templeton has put it "The four most dangerous words in investing are "it's different this time". We have respect for his style and ready to learn, from him and other old wise guys with money and dignity (even Guys from Google are trying to back link to ONE, I always would like to tell them that their share structure is little bit complicated, poor Joe could find one day that even if he will buy all shares Clever Guys are still controlling his company). This guys are good teachers because they have everything and quick buck is not on their mind rather Legacy is keeping them busy giving to us their wisdom. We tend to be critical of all these "Buy" and "Rising Target" and "Estimates" (of Buyers stupidity?) from young analyst from Big Houses, it looks like sometimes they did not invested in CASIO or have tendency to see only part of figures and are using a lot of monkey language messing up with GAAP and NON GAAP on one page. Big Houses always wins and stays, young guys are going, sometimes they are punished, sacked and even baned for life, but you know - it is not easier for you, your money is gone. You do not even ask sometimes curiosity sake how could it happen? Big House could not afford Casio or it just happen to have Big Positions in recommended stock which need to be unfolded. You know already this MR Market trick: for every happy Seller he needs to find a Sucker - called Buyer or Institutional Client (it is easy to find Suckers when you give them due respect or even better when they manage OTHER PEOPLE MONEY like pension funds come to mind). Why it is always We here? I am really think that if you are still here we are thinking alike and just putting these notes together in order to profit from Common Sense and Discipline, because we know already that there is third very important component for Treasure Hunt in line with Value Upside Realisation Potential and Time - it is Discipline in Execution of our strategy in relation to MR Market. He will challenge us first with NON Believers, then he will try to shake us out. Then we will have to come over "wall of worry" and when we will think that everything is right and feel Confident another blow will come, but the most challenge will be in Suckers' time, when everything will be perfect and everybody will be posting comments here and we will feel proud of our wisdom, but we will be prepared: we will look in the mirror every morning for this magic word SUCKER on our forehead, we will talk to taxi drivers and...we will listen to Big Houses. And when taxi driver will tell us that he has sold Google to buy Junior Silver company and we will see on CNBC scream Buy, we will Draw our Lines, calmly pick up the phone (we will not Trust Email by that time) and say Sell. OK, so what about Google? Same old, same old - time to look in the Mirrors, I have already wrote about Slowing Growth, MC/FCF=95 against Yahoo!'s 28.9, falling Operational cash flow by 9% in Q4 over Q3, saturation point in traffic with Down Trend, Technical Damage, trimming of CAPEX to save Free Cash Flow which is barely flat, but everybody was exited about Earnings and how they "beat" the street. Another surprise here: 13% "Efficient Tax rate" was very handy this Q they have reported EPS 3.29. If we will read ER we will find out that Income before income tax was 1184733, we will apply stated by Google 26% Tax (which is also rather interesting rate) and so normalise tax rate within the year without One Time Benefit due to deal with IRS (they call it "APA" :"Our effective tax rate will be greater in 2007 under the APA than it would have been without it." Surprise, Never Sacrify Party for Tomorrow's Morning.) In plane English if this One Time benefit would not happen now Earnings will be ONLY 1184733*(1-0.26)=876.702 mln USD against 313459 mln shares with Q4 EPS=2.80! way below Street expectations. And the price for it - higher Tax rate in the future. If this deal was not stricken in December 2006 (!) stock will be already below 400 today. Very good timing and clever game as usual.