Sunday, November 14, 2010

Peak Oil: Lithium Drive with REE spin: It Will Take 131 Years To Replace Oil, And Time Is To Act Now! tnr.v, czx.v,, lmr.v, tsla, rm.v,,,, jnn.v, abn.v, res, mcp,, quc.v, cee.v, sqm, fmc, roc, li.v, wlc.v, clq.v, lit, nsany, byddf, gm, dai,, hev, aone, vlnc

What Peak Oil?

For how long will we allow to the fat cats to distort our vision and prevent us all from necessary action?

(Authors mean no offence to these lovely animals - cat is, actually, in a very good shape)

  C.S. It is very interesting - University of California Davis becomes the mass media darling, finally, on Peak Oil issue and its crucial application to our lives in the nearest future. We have recently published Peak Oil 101 Explained: Geophysicist Kenneth Verosub, Distinguished Professor of Geology at the University of California, Davis. - one of the best presentations on Peak Oil with more information on this hot subject available here.
Engines of the Chevrolet Volt at a public exhi...Image via Wikipedia

  We will not join those who suggest to panic - that time has come in 2008 and is gone already - it is too late to panic. We need to put all resources together and move forward like China is doing now
  GE with its purchase of 25000 Electric Cars is the first, but very important step in electric cars mass market creation. 
  There is a technology available to us to preserve our way of life: Electric Cars - any shortcomings like price, range and others, written and posted on every corner by mass media under the light from the Kerosine lamps - will be nothing compare to Oil Shock and the matter of survival with Oil price above 100 USD/barrel again. Technology will deal with a lot of things: battery price, range, safety - Nissan Leaf and GM Volt are already on the streets today! U.S. grid, which needs modernisation by all means, even in its today's state can support recharging of 50 million EVs overnight. Start-Ups like DBM Energy from Germany can move our expectations from Lithium technology further even today - what would you say about 375 mile rage on one charge?
  We need the political will for just a few things to put together: 

1. Government support with the State-Level electrification plan of transportation  - like China has now - we will be lucky just to catch on, particularly with the situation with REE and Lithium coming next
2. Corporate Peak Oil survival guide like the one implemented by GE and supported by others in order to address economy during stagflation, when profitability could be based on low electric cars operational cost; 
3. Nation-wide educational campaign to bring the awareness to the public about Electric cars. Here is the right time to drop a line about the fat cats and other animals from the Farm: Plug In America used volunteers to produce Electric Cars PSAs, with a budget of 160k - BP has spend millions buying search advertisement links during Oil Spill in The Gulf on Google.

  We are living in an insane time by all means measured by common sense, we have suggested once - that Deflationists are missing the point and General Bernanke, who is fighting our last war against Deflation, can print and send to the every household 1 million dollar bill tomorrow, erasing deflation as a definition during FIAT currency system and killing US Dollar value all together. We have called it: The End of Money: Why and How to invest in Lithium? It is coming, but it does not mean that there is nothing could be done - Mr Bernanke is chopping the wood anyway - just send more money to the productive part of the population. 
"The car is the second largest purchase after the house for the middle-class. It is never 
The Nissan LeafImage by Tom Raftery via Flickr
really an investment in contrast to the house (according to the logic before the Crash - a house was an investment). Electric cars allow to sell the second biggest item in the household "second time". Family gets an instant cash flow adjustment with electric cars economics: 2.5 cent cost per mile against 12 cents in conventional vehicle (CV). The government gets the opportunity to send money to consumers to fight the Deflation Death Spiral and take it away into the value food chain, hopefully belonging to the domestic production cycle.   The way of doing it - stimulus for production in order to bring prices down, like today, and direct Tax Rebates on purchases of EVs - which are already in place. With the GM Volt battery strategy, the price for EVs will quickly reach the same level as for a CV, and in this situation the Electric Car could become an investment in the household balance sheet as it will be producing "an alternative income" relative to cost of ownership of CV. Here is our "adjusted" cash flow.  Third, why do we think it could happen at all? About it Obama, here."
   Why not to make rebates on every EV build and purchased in U.S. at 15k - 20k USD and tomorrow GM will be retooling all plants to produce Chevy Volt, Nissan will be pleading to build more factories on US soil and other automakers will be standing in the queue to get to the party - it means thousand of Jobs coming back to U.S. 
  The very important part of the plan should be a long term program to Secure Supply of strategic commodities for Electrification of our Economy - Lithium and REE.

"With all this inflation unfolding we have another ground breaking, tectonic shift: Peak Oil multiplied by inflationary pressure on prices of all commodities. If gold at 5000 USD/oz will affect only very small part of our society - oil prices above 100 USD/barrel will affect everyone and can tear apart the canvas of our society. Here where Electric Cars and new oil - Lithium and REE are coming into the picture with it's new generational bull mega trend - Next Big Thing in action. We did pretty good with "old and barbaric" in the Google age asset - Gold - we dare to put our money in the age of Twitter and Facebook on the future again and start to think in advance how all these kids are going to drive their kids to the soccer games."

  Will Government Sachs consider such a proposition? They are already investing themselves in Lithium with Talison Lithium and REE with Molycorp. When Empire will fall, palaces on the garbage fields and security detail 24-7 will not make you happy any more - you can trust us at least on this one. We have time still, but it is running out very fast...

"We have another warning on Peak Oil situation - this time it is the report from New Zealand Parliament "The New Oil Shock?" This year we have a staggering number of reports and warning on the looming Peak Oil situation. It takes time for reality to settle in, particularly, when nobody knows what to do with it. We have put REE in the headline and only few months ago we would have to explain, what is it all about - now suddenly everybody is talking about REE and stocks involved in Rare Earths are all making new highs. It takes a crisis for us to realise that fundamentals are driving the real trends. Sudden realisation that China controls more than 90% of REE market and their reserves maybe will last only for another twenty years, created the catalyst in the market place. What will it take to realise that we are running out of cheap oil? Another crisis?

  We are talking here about the powerful mega trend Inflation multiplied by Peak Oil situation - we have to move and readjust our society. Our Energy diet is not sustainable any more. We are lucky in a sense that there is technology available to us to survive the Oil Shock if we will all move fast - Electric Cars. It is our Next Big Thing and at the heart of this disruptive technology lie strategic commodities: REE and Lithium.

  Today everybody is exited about REE, tomorrow Peak Oil time will come and Lithium will make the headlines again. During excitement stage it is easy to make the wrong decision and chase the mini bubbles only to see them to pop - do not mistake the mega trends, Next Big Thing and parabolic rises. There is time to buy and time to sell. REE gives us a very good example - what can happen with a very small sector, when the all world depends on it. Peak Oil realisation will be next. With GM Volt and Nissan Leaf on the streets you will see the future - The Future is Electric."

New Zealand Parliament: The Next Oil Shock.


Dian L. Chu, Economic Forecasts & Opinions | Nov. 13, 2010

It seems the panic time for both green enthusiasts and peak oil pundits.
According to a new paper by two researchers at the University of California – Davis, it would take 131 years for replacement of gasoline and diesel given the current pace of research and development; however, world's oil could run dry almost a century before that.
The research was published on Nov. 8 at Environmental Science & Technology, which is based on the theory that market expectations are good predictors reflected in prices of publicly traded securities.
By incorporating market expectations into the model, the authors, Nataliya Malyshkina and Deb Niemeier, indicated that based on their calculation, the peak of oil production could occur between 2010 and 2030, before renewable replacement technologies become viable at around 2140.
Wind turbines (Vendsyssel, Denmark, 2004)Image via Wikipedia
The estimates not only delayed the alternative energy timeline, but also pushed up the peak oil deadline. The researchers suggest some previous estimates that pegged year 2040 as the time frame when alternatives would start to replace oil, could be “overly optimistic".
As I pointed out before, despite the excitement and hype surrounding a future of clean energy, a majority of the current technology simply does not make economic sense for regular consumers and lack the infrastructure for a mass deployment….even with government subsidies, tax breaks, and outright mandates.
In addition, the supply chain of renewable technologies is not as green as people might think. Most alternative technologies rely on rare earths for efficiency. However, the radioactive waste produced by rare earths mining process makes oil sands look like a green energy. This overlooked (or ignored) fact just now received some attention due to the sudden shortage caused by China’s embargo and export quotas on rare earths.
Another case in point – In China, the city of Jiuquan in Gansu province needs to build 9.2 gigawatts of new coal-fired generating capacity as backup power of the 12.7 gigawatts wind turbines due to be installed by 2015. So more wind farm would need more coal-fired power plants, with little or possibly no carbon reduction.
Capitalism means the investment naturally flows to the more profitable proposition....and vice versa. With more data and information becoming available, not much could go unnoticed by the markets, particularly in a relatively new sector such as renewable energy. And this harsh reality is clearly reflected in this new study.
Now, in its latest long term outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that oil demand, prices and dependence on OPEC all set to continue rising through 2035, and that global oil supplies near their peak in 2035 as China, India and other emerging economies keep on trucking.
So the world needs to come to a common understanding that
The alternative energy is not mature enough to replace fossil sources any time soon.
Energy security means a diversified and balanced portfolio inclusive of every bit of resource, fossil as well as renewables, just to meet the projected demand.
Real "green" energy is easier said than done.
Furthermore, the increased rare earths dependency, and the latest food vs. fuel debate when the food industry slapped a law suit against the EPA over E15 ethanol serve as examples illustrating that implementing policies without thorough planning and research often times has unintended and nasty consequences. (In this E15 case, the EAP is an easy mark with one in eight Americans on food stamps.)
That requires a balanced and unbiased government policy to guide exploration and development of technologies to unlock the new fossil fuel reserves, expanding the R&Ds of emerging technologies, while effectively practicing and promoting energy efficiency and conservation.
Otherwise, we may literally witness $300 a barrel oil before the electric vehicle even makes one percent market penetration, and unfortunately there's no easy fix.
This post was published at the author's blog"

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