Thursday, May 07, 2009

Lithium: Bull market Supply, Demand and Economics. TNR.v, SQM, GOOG, RIMM, AAPL, ESLR, WLC.v, CLQ.v, HUI, XAU, BYD, TTM, F, GM, CDNX, OIH, OIL, FXI,

Our next Bull market must be with solid fundamentals based on Supply and Demand, be in today's fashion and produce a favorable economics. Only then our Next Big Thing will have a chance to survive, but nothing will be for sure until it will become the fairytale of taxi drivers. Expect a lot of doubts and paid upfront hesitation: it is still Stage One of the Bull - destructive technology in action against vested interests.

"Total Global Resources & Reserves of Lithium - At present noted Geologist Kieth Evans estimates total global resources and reserves of Li at 30,120,000 tonnes (160,000,000 tonnes Li carbonate equivalent). The following chart shows the estimated break down according to source types:

More data in presentation Lithium

"The Economics of Lithium, 11th edition 2009 Roskill
Consumption of lithium increased by over 8%py between 2003 and 2007 but growth slowed in 2008 to just 4%. The major industrial markets for lithium - ceramics, glass, aluminium, greases and rubber - have all benefited from high rates of GDP growth in emerging markets, increasing overall lithium consumption. However, the main driver of lithium demand has been its use in rechargeable batteries. Demand for portable consumer goods in both developed and developing countries accelerated in the middle part of the decade and production of lithium secondary batteries grew by 25%py between 2000 and 2007. Consumption of lithium in batteries increased in-line with battery production and now accounts for 20% of total lithium consumption, up from 6% in 2000.What the report gives you
Independent, in-depth research and analysis
Essential market intelligence for successful business planning
Detailed survey of production and processing in 40 countries
Up-to-date profiles of the activities of 58 producing and processing companies
Forecasts for end-use consumption and world supply and demand
Report highlights
World production of lithium reached 22,800t Li in 2008, up from 13,000t Li in 2000. Most of the growth in output has come from three countries: Argentina, Australia and Chile, which together accounted for 82% of total lithium production in 2008. Supply of lithium is dominated by producers of lithium from brines in the Americas - SQM, Chemetall and FMC Lithium - and by the sole lithium mineral producer in Australia - Talison Minerals. China has increased its domestic production of lithium minerals and lithium from brines by 15%py since 2000, as new projects have been developed, although China accounted for only 8% of total global lithium production in 2008.
Tightness in available brine production capacity in South America in the mid-2000s, and problems with ramping-up production from brines in China, prompted a resurgence in the conversion of lithium minerals to compounds. Lithium compounds produced by conversion from lithium minerals satisfied 15% of lithium compound demand in 2008. China has become the major source of lithium compounds produced by this method, using both domestically produced and imported lithium minerals.
The higher cost of the lithium minerals conversion process compared to brine production of lithium has impacted on lithium prices. Prices for lithium carbonate more than doubled between 2004 and 2008 to just under US$5,500/t. The outlook for lithium consumption to 2013 is optimistic, particularly as lithium secondary batteries for automotive uses are now reaching commercialisation. Nevertheless, as the global economic downturn continues there is likely to be an impact on the supply, demand and price fundamentals for lithium in the short-term."

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