Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Lithium and Rare Earth Elements: The new Bull is born. TNR.v, SQM, ROC, DAI, TTM, NSANY, BYD, WLC.v, CLQ.v, RM.v, AVL.v, GOOG, RIMM, AAPL, FXI, HUI,

  
The new Bull is born, not everybody aware of it yet, but tectonic shift is happening everyday, which will affect everybody on this planet in the future. Our initial ideas have found some confirmation in the market quotes and we need to reflect on nature of things in order to confirm our Trade as an Investment Trend.
We have everything in place to produce the Next Industrial revolution - Financial economy is dead, moral is low and there is no faith in any agents left after Madoff and bailouts under Goldman Sachs supervision. Few have shared the Profits and everybody will share the Loss for decades to come.
It is a matter of survival now, capitalism is under a deadly attack from itself and its corrupt Masters. Forget about any pension promised: if it will come - the purchasing power of it will be far below of your expectations. You have to work and work hard for your money and keep them on a very short leash. We have a structural collapse of financial system and if you ask our opinion: it is totally insolvent.
We have two major scenarios out from this point:
1. Deadly decease with War to follow, when everybody is grateful just to be alive, ready to bring to the altar of "Common Good" all their Freedoms and we have a Fall of Rome for a couple of centuries. It is called fascism, we had it before - we can have it again. We do not know what to do in this case.
2. Universe will give us all a chance and Masters will not chose to spin us into the first option because of.....(you can add any positive thoughts here).
In this case we need to plan how to live during Kondratieff Winter until all loss from derivatives will be absorbed by the system. Here is our Gold and Silver ideas will shine, when government will debase FIAT currencies to inflate out debts and Social Security payments unsustainable with real purchasing power of currencies at the same level. Gold and Silver act like a Real Store of Value.
Next thing is to find a Big Idea around which you can consolidate the nation and its economy. It can not be Wall Street and Prosperity of Goldman Sachs, idea to sell houses to everybody, who can never afford it will be felt by everybody for decades to come. We need something which will affect positively everybody very fast, will be big enough to bring structural change to the whole economy, will use at least something competitive left in US Corp., will unleash positive energy of creation and sustainable living in peace with Nature. From economic point of view it must bring back wealth creation based on spending of what is earned, saving and investing in production goods and services with high added value.
Such a thing is in existence already and we call it Next Big Thing - Green Mobility revolution based on Electric Cars with new oil - Lithium and REE to drive our Green Bull.
We will start our reasoning from the End - it is already happen and US Corp. has to catch up. China is making a leapfrog into electric car next industrial revolution and increasing dramatically its competitive and strategic Power: they are allocating resources where it is matters: high end research applications for everyday life. It is a matter of security - they do not have Oil, they need to keep population happy and bring mobility without destroying what is left out of environment there. Electric cars means New Energy sources, new infrastructure build and new internal consumer demand created.
We have Decoupling here back in play and Two Big Differences: China has Two Trillion dollars in reserve and USA will have Two Trillion dollars in Deficit this year. How to live with it - we let Obama handle it, so far our Gold and Silver positions are happy, but we will not live him alone - he has our full support on Green Agenda and its Mobility side.
Our bullish case for the New Deal: Next Industrial revolution with Mobility revolution based on Electric Cars:
1. Size: Energy economy is estimated at 6 trillion and it is almost half of GDP. Oil Lobby will try to kill the idea by all means, but the country must be stronger this time - another option is to learn Mandarin. When Chinese are buying property in USA they will need domestic staff as well.
2. Everyday life - every family is affected in USA. With Oil prices above 100 USD/b consumers are slowly freezing to death during Kondratieff winter. With Oil above 250 USD/b everything stands still in USA. Economics of Electric cars - 4 cents per mile compare to 13 cents with gas in a very fuel efficient car.
3. Geopolitical situation: Supply - USA is a Net Importer of Oil, depends on supply from outside of its zone of influence. Another war for Freedom (to take their Oil) is out of the Agenda at least for a while.
4. Financial security - with stagnating in real terms equity markets and bear markets in treasuries import of oil above 100 USD/b is unsustainable for current account deficit.
Positive side effects:
1. At least part of bailout's money will be invested in structural changes of the economy effecting positively Variable Costs of USA Corp.
2. Technological and production base is supported and could become the new source of export revenue to make US Dollar collapse manageble.
3. Employment could be positively affected with new infrastructure projects to make this revolution happen.
4. Consumers are stimulated by rebates and tax cut to buy a second electric car or even first supporting new production base in USA.
5. Consumers squeezed by recent financial collapse and Demographic Bubble (Retiring Baby Boomers) will have positive cash flow effect with Electric Cars economics until insolvent government decide to tax it.
Buzz in the air is telling us that it is not our thoughts, but headlines from all around the world, sometimes we feel them before the print, but it is a story for another article. Do not forget that we need to be solvent during all stages of the new Bull to make it a real fun.





-- Deborah Cohen covers small business for Reuters.com. She can be reached at smallbusinessbigissues@yahoo.com --
By Deborah L. Cohen

Chrysler is bankrupt, General Motors is on the verge of bankruptcy and the broader auto industry is in a financial mess. But there are winners emerging from the debris of the industry's implosion. Thanks partly to new standards on emissions, those companies are of a familiar hue: green.Start-up makers of electric car components, lithium batteries, smart technologies and other products designed to help the United States and other developed countries reduce dependence on gasoline are generating a lot of buzz these days.
Last week the Obama administration laid out national emissions standards, which are seen as the latest catalyst for the automotive industry to become more aggressive about exploring new technologies to meet compliance. The standards are seen breathing new life into some companies that had been teetering on the brink of survival due to a slowdown in venture funding.
"By forcing the regulatory part, the government is actually pushing (larger) companies toward more investment, which will hopefully trickle down to companies like ours," says Said Al-Hallaj, co-founder of Chicago-based All Cell Technologies, a maker of lithium-ion batteries with sophisticated temperature controls. The products are designed for use with electric-powered vehicles.
The new U.S. rules, which begin in 2012, impose a national standard calling for vehicles to average 35.5 miles per gallon by 2016. Cars and trucks are expected to be nearly 40 percent cleaner and more fuel-efficient than they are today.These regulations come on top of some $2 billion in federal economic stimulus grants the Department of Energy will award to battery companies, component providers and other developers of green technology for transportation."It does create some interesting opportunities," says David Cole, chairman of the nonprofit Center for Automotive Research, noting that the prospects for companies offering batteries and other parts for plug-in hybrids could likely see the most near-term interest. "The ingenuity of small companies is very important."
But Cole stresses that only those ventures able to fill a gap or provide a complement to products and technologies developed by the big carmakers and longstanding suppliers stand a reasonable chance at success.
"You're in a competitive race with some really fast people," he says, cautioning that new market entrants should have their ideas vetted by an independent third party early on in development. "If you can provide a narrow niche -- that's great. It's very tough to find that."
A GREAT OPPORTUNITY'
Competition is fierce. VentureBeat reported that as of late last year more than 30 companies had been founded just to sell electric cars. Good magazine, which covers altruistic trends, in April released a transportation issue entitled "Reinventing Our Wheels" showcasing more than 100 pages dedicated to alternative forms of transportation.
Investors say the new legislation may generate more participation from the venture capital community.
"Any time there is discontinuity or disruption, there's an opportunity for newer companies or startups to enter the marketplace," says Promod Haque, managing partner of Norwest Venture Partners, an investment firm specializing in technology companies. "This is a great opportunity for money to roll in."
And despite the ever-crowded field, enthusiasm is rising among those start-ups that have already established some staying power, such as Chicago-based All Cell, the lithium-ion battery maker.
The company, which began in 2001 with $2.5 million from friends, family and angel investors, recently increased its staff to 14 and is hunting for manufacturing space. Its customers now include a French maker of electric bikes and two Tier One automotive suppliers that have contracted for early stage research and development.
"We're getting tremendous inquiries," says Al-Hallaj. "The fact that this legislation is in place, if it works, means that now the venture investors and the car companies have to start coming up with strategies to be part of these markets."
Israel-based ETV Motors Ltd, a start-up that is developing alternative power-trains for hybrid-electric vehicles, is another with apparent market momentum. Last month the company raised about $12 million in venture funding and is planning for a second capital-raising round.
"Any regulations or laws that support lowered emissions work in our favor because of our focus on REEVs (range-extended electric vehicles)," says Arnold Roth, ETV's chief operating officer, in an email exchange.
Companies focused on alternative transportation are likely to see some benefit from the new emissions standards, even if it's just from increased public awareness on more environmentally friendly choices for getting around, says David Goldschmidt, chief operating officer for Boulder, Colorado-based Intrago Corp. The early-stage startup is developing logistics systems to manage pools of electric vehicles designed for short trips, such as around town or on corporate campuses.
"As gas prices continue to go back up and the fuel economy and emissions regulations move forward, we think it's great for showing there's still a need to address the economics," Goldschmidt says."

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