Saturday, May 02, 2009

Jim Rogers: "I am not selling my gold," TNR.v, RMK.v, CGH.to, SBB.v, OK.v, MGN, FVI.v, BTT.v, GBN.v, VTR.v, RVM.to, HUI, XAU, ASM.v, EPZ.v, KTN.v

Are you selling Gold?
We are taking threat with Swine Flu seriously here, so always check your temperature before any financial decision, but if you think: it is scary on this Gold chart - wait until we talk about treasuries. Some people with vested interests will try to talk you into a Double Top in Gold on the chart above, but we see the Gold in a Cup and Handle formation, as we have mentioned before, and it is a consolidation pattern before the move to the next level.
Here Green Fellow is just falling apart, bearish flag and rolling top are all over the place. Unusual high altitude resulted in dizziness and he is pleading to come down. General Bernanke and his One Thousand and One relatively honest methods: how not to repay in full on outstanding IOUs - are not helping either.

It is on this Long Term Treasuries' chart where the scary things are coming together: panic about Swine Flu must be taken over all Pension and Insurance Funds managers: after rush into treasuries in December 2008 at precise Top - this phase looks like total meltdown. All these guys are sitting on huge paper losses and their solvency is under very big question for our unsophisticated taste. Now, after some meditation on all these pictures of what is really going on in the market place, IMF loud discussions about selling Gold are getting a new meaning and Jim Rogers as usual gives us hint or two on the real matter of things from his must be gold plated bunker in Singapore.

We have already mentioned that US Dollar is seriously in doubt about its own future, last week, apart from Swine Flue scare, was the week when Treasury was selling more then 200 billion new IOUs. Dollar went under pressure and Treasury Bubble continues its musical chair game on the way down. It is important to understand that all those money, which came into treasuries in December, 2008 at the top will be a dead wood until maturity. Pension Funds and Insurance companies are sitting on huge losses after their flight to "safety" of US Treasuries. Now all this talk about helping poor nations is melting under our sceptical eye: timing is very convenient to bail out banks, which are shorting Gold on Comex and not able to deliver it ever. We do think that Gold is just before the next very important move and should they actually sell part of IMF gold and suppress the price - it will be the last sale of the century. Please, anyway, before you will decide to buy all IMF gold to be sold check out that it is not your lunch money and otherwise enjoy our investment simulator ride on this blog in safety of your own house and lunch will be still available for you when you will get hungry.

"Legendary global investor and chairman of Singapore- based Rogers Holdings, Jim Rogers said he is concerned some institutional gold reserves may be sold, affecting prices in the short term.
In an interview with Bloomberg radio, Rogers said: “I own some gold, but I am not buying at the moment because the IMF, which is one of the largest owners of gold in the world, is desperate to sell its gold.”
“I’m not selling my gold,” Rogers said.
The IMF “is trying to get permission from everybody,” Rogers added.
“If and when they sell their gold, they may set a bottom. Who knows? It may go down to US$700. They got a lot of gold to sell. If it does, I hope I’m brave enough and smart enough to buy more.” In an earlier interview Rogers said whether the IMF sells gold or not, the world is expecting them to sell it.
G20 leaders agreed earlier this month that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should sell gold from its reserve to help stimulate the world economy.
"Additional resources from agreed sales of IMF gold will be used, together with the surplus income, to provide US$6 billion additional concessional and flexible finance for the poorest countries over the next 2-3 years," a G20 statement said.
The IMF’s board approved a proposal in April 2008 to sell 403.3 metric tons of bullion as part of a plan to close the Washington-based lender’s annual deficit.
The IMF is the third-largest holder of gold reserves after the US and Germany, with 3,217 tons in deposits, according to the World Gold Council (WGC)
Rogers has spent a career being one step ahead of mainstream investment thinking. Amongst his many accomplishments, Rogers was co-founder with George Soros of Quantum Fund. During his ten years with the fund, the portfolio gained more than 4,000%, while the S&P rose less than 50%.
Rogers retired from Quantum in 1980 and became a guest professor of finance at Columbia University Graduate School of Business and in 1989 and 1990, the moderator of The Dreyfus Roundtable and The Profit Motive with Jim Rogers. In 2002, Rogers became a regular guest on Fox News' Cavuto on Business. In 2004, Rogers wrote Hot Commodities.
In 1998, he founded the Rogers International Commodity Index and in 2007, the index and its three sub-indices were linked to exchange-traded notes under the banner ELEMENTS. The notes track the total return of the indices as an accessible way to invest in the index. In 2008, Rogers co-founded the Rogers-Van Eck Hard Assets Producers Index, an equity index focusing on pure play commodity producers."
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