Copper, Zinc and Cobalt: Freeport-McMoran Lured in Equinox Lowball Bid for Lundin Mining: Real M&A lun.to, czx.v, tnr.v, ngq.to, fcx, eqn.to, bwr.to, cs.to, imn.to, ncu.to, tko.to, wrn.to, qux.to, rio, bls.to, tck

  Let's the bidding game begin! We have mentioned quite a few times that Tenke Fungurume is a crown jewel for any mining company with its high grade Copper and cobalt deposit. Equinox has basically confirmed it in one of the interviews by its CEO - they are going after the Tenke Fungurume stake which belongs to Lundin Mining. We should not discount the egos involved as well: Lukas Lundin was trying to buy out Equinox before and now "the table has turned" - Equinox will be the least option for him to sell the company with his name.
   How long Freeport McMoran will be waiting to enter the game?

"We have discussed yesterday Lukas Lundin and his companies, which could be affected by this bid. We have a nice 26% premium to the Friday's closing already, but we will be very surprised if Lukas Lundin will let this company slip out of his hands for anything less than CAD10.0 per share.

   Now speculation will begin this week whether he will be able to defend the company and stay with Inmet together. The obvious choice will be to change the Inmet merger arrangements and provide some premium to Lundin Mining shareholders - more than Equnox is offering. Can the new suitor materialize as well - we will see it shortly. Freeport McMoRan can step in and consolidate Tenke Fungurume stake, but so far this company was not in a hurry. Equnox bid can change the situation as Lundin Mining team was developing the Tenke Fungurume project in Congo and there is no any benefit for FCX to lose the stake in Tenke Fungurume to another company.

  We will be watching Canada Zinc Metals today and NGeX Resources. We have covered CZX.v yesterday and NGeX is the Global Exploration Company of Lukas Lundin - should he decide to sell Lundin Mining at one point this company can get more of his capital and attention."

Bloomberg:

Freeport-McMoran Lured in Equinox Lowball Bid for Lundin Mining: Real M&A
By Christopher Donville and Tara Lachapelle - Mar 3, 2011

Equinox Minerals Ltd. (EQN)’s counter offer for Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN) is so low that it’s leaving an opening for Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) to enter the bidding war.

Lundin, a Toronto-based copper and zinc producer, was 1.2 percent above Equinox’s average cash-or-stock offer of C$7.77 a share as of yesterday, signaling traders who bet on mergers and acquisitions expect a competing bid. Equinox, owner of Africa’s largest copper mine, made its unsolicited C$4.6 billion ($4.7 billion) proposal Feb. 28, a month after Lundin agreed to a takeover by Inmet Mining Corp. (IMN) Equinox has offered a 14 percent premium, the lowest counter bid for a diversified-minerals company, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Freeport, the world’s largest publicly traded copper producer, is likely to make a rival proposal as it seeks to increase its stake in a copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo jointly owned with the government and Lundin, said WallachBeth Capital LLC’s Yemi Oshodi. Companies are competing to acquire mining assets amid a dearth of new projects after demand from China pushed copper prices to a record last month.

“The market is betting that if Lundin gets sold, it’s going to be at a higher price than the first price Equinox bid,” said Oshodi, managing director of M&A and special situations trading at New York-based WallachBeth. “The speculation that Freeport is going to come in is a no-brainer.”

Eric Kinneberg, a Freeport spokesman, declined to comment.

New Company Symterra

Inmet of Toronto announced an agreement Jan. 12 to purchase Lundin for 0.0954 of a share for every Lundin share, the equivalent of a 2.2 percent premium above the 20-day trading average, to create a new company named Symterra Corp. Inmet, with operations in Turkey, Spain and Finland, has the right to match any other offer and is entitled to a breakup fee of C$120 million if the deal falls apart.

“Inmet recognized the risk that someone else comes in with a better deal,” said Raymond Goldie, an analyst at Salman Partners Inc. in Toronto who recommends buying Inmet shares. “If someone else does come in with a better deal, Inmet gets compensated for it.”

Equinox countered the agreement this week by offering investors C$8.10 in cash or 1.2903 shares and 1 cent for each Lundin share. The proposal is capped at a maximum cash portion of C$2.4 billion. Based on half stock and half cash, the takeover was worth an average of C$7.77 as of yesterday. Equinox has fallen 8.1 percent since the bid was announced. The West Perth, Australia-based company trades in Toronto.

Competing Premium

The competing premium of 14 percent more than the 20-day trading average before Inmet’s original offer is the lowest ever for a diversified-minerals company, Bloomberg data show.

“It’s not a particularly huge premium, so it does leave the door open,” said Timothy Parker, who manages $8.5 billion in natural-resource stocks at T. Rowe Price Group Inc. in Baltimore, part of the firm’s $482 billion under management globally.

Equinox Chief Executive Officer Craig Williams said it’s possible there will be another competing bid for Lundin.

“It’s quite late in the day, but you can’t discount it,” Williams said yesterday in a telephone interview from Toronto. “On the basic metrics, it’s a pretty clear-cut decision for the Lundin shareholders in favor of our deal.”

Phil Wright, Lundin’s CEO, said in an e-mail that the company’s special committee is reviewing the offer from Equinox and will respond after it’s been “properly considered.” Jochen Tilk, Inmet’s CEO, didn’t respond to a message left at his office in Toronto.

Rival Bids

In the last 12 months, companies that stepped in with rival bids had to pay a competing premium of at least 49 percent to prevail in deals greater than $1 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Avis Budget Group Inc. (CAR) in Parsippany, New Jersey, paid a 49 percent premium to the 20-day average before the bidding war in its $1.33 billion takeover of Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group Inc. to fend off Park Ridge, New Jersey-based Hertz Global Holdings Inc. (HTZ) Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ), based in Palo Alto, California, pushed the competing premium for the $2.1 billion acquisition of storage-systems maker 3Par Inc. to 235 percent in August, beating out Dell Inc. (DELL) in Round Rock, Texas.

Lundin owns 24 percent of Tenke Fungurume, a copper mine in the south of the Congo that is scheduled to produce 290 million pounds of copper this year.

Prepared for Acquisitions

Freeport, with a 56 percent stake in the $2 billion project, said Jan. 20 that it’s evaluating expanding copper output there by as much as 200 million pounds within three years. Phoenix-based Freeport is “prepared to make acquisitions if opportunities come to us,” though it’s not part of the company’s strategy, CEO Richard Adkerson said at an analyst conference this week in Hollywood, Florida.

The company is boosting output at mines in North America and Africa to offset lower copper and gold sales at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world’s largest combined copper and gold mine. Freeport has dropped 13 percent this year, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Materials Index is little changed.

Orest Wowkodaw, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity Inc. in Toronto, said in a research note this week Freeport may join the takeover battle because of its joint interest in the Tenke mine.

Gecamines, Congo’s state-owned mining company, holds the remaining 20 percent of Tenke, which was completed in 2009. The project has an expected mine-life of more than 40 years, Lundin’s website said. That’s longer than Lundin’s projections for its other operations, including the Neves-Corvo copper and zinc mine in Portugal and mines in Sweden, Spain and Ireland.

‘Just Walk Away’

The Equinox deal values Lundin at 9.6 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, in line with the median for deals greater than $500 million in the diversified- minerals industry since 2006, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Inmet’s all-stock deal valued Lundin at 8.3 times Ebitda.

“I really think Inmet will just walk away,” said George Topping, a Toronto-based analyst at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. who rates Equinox “hold” and Lundin “buy.” “They cannot afford to offer cash, and without cash they’re not going to succeed. Investors just want the money.”

Any of the suitors for Lundin may boost shareholder value. Lundin’s return on equity, a measure of how much a company earns for each dollar it invested, was 10 percent last quarter, trailing Freeport’s 46 percent return, Equinox’s 19 percent and Inmet’s 14 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Electric Cables, Plumbing

The price of copper, used in electric cables and plumbing, has climbed 32 percent in the past year after demand rose in China, the largest user of the metal. Global consumption exceeded production by 34,774 tons in the first 11 months of last year, according to Bloomberg data.

Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange traded at a record $10,190 a ton on Feb. 15. The metal will average $9,725 this year and $10,000 in 2012, according to the median of analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Mining companies haven’t kept pace with demand because new reserves are becoming harder to find and the quality of ore is declining, meaning less copper is extracted from each ton of rock.

Equinox said it will finance the cash component of its offer through a $3.2 billion bridge loan arranged through Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) of New York and Zurich-based Credit Suisse Group AG.

“We have a very healthy cash flow,” Equinox CEO Williams said in the interview. “And when you look at the cash flow of the combined entity, it’s a very healthy equation that gives us the ability to finance the acquisition.”

High Debt Level

Lundin CEO Wright criticized the Equinox offer at an investor conference Feb. 28, saying Lundin-Inmet is a superior portfolio combination and that the Equinox bid should be all cash to make it easier for investors to evaluate. The Equinox deal would create a “very high level of debt,” he said, according to a transcript.

“Do you want to be in the hands of your lenders? Have we learned really nothing out of the last three years?” Wright said. “I have to tell you from my point of view, it’s been an uncomfortable experience back through 2008, and it’s not something that I would like to see our assets re-subjected to.”

Freeport has long-term debt of $4.66 billion, and cash and equivalents of $3.74 billion. The company is rated A1L by Bloomberg’s Company Credit Ratings, the seventh-highest level of investment grade. Even if the company paid for Lundin entirely with debt, its ranking would only fall one level, according to Bloomberg’s ratings, which analyze borrowers based on their indebtedness, profitability and other financial ratios.

Overall, there have been 3,893 deals announced globally this year, totaling $394.7 billion, a 31 percent increase from the $301.7 billion in the same period in 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

To contact the reporters on this story: Christopher Donville in Vancouver at cjdonville@bloomberg.net; Tara Lachapelle in New York at tlachapelle@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Simon Casey at scasey@bloomberg.net; Daniel Hauck at dhauck1@bloomberg.net; Katherine Snyder at ksnyder@bloomberg.net."

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Lundin Mining Announces Successful Completion Of Tenke Fungurume Contract Review Process LUN.to, FCX, CZX.v, TNR.v, BHP, MAI.to, RIO, BWR.to, CS.to, IMN.to, NCU.to, TKO.to, WRN.to, QUX.to

  

  It seams to be only yesterday and it is so far away - we are living now in the "new normal", but old values are still here. Decoupling is happening these days after the financial crisis. Lundin Mining after years of waiting - and near death experience with stock price at one point below 0.6CAD  in 2009 - has finally received approval of contract for Tenke Fungurume mine from DRC government. 

    As one of our loyal readers from those days mentioned - we have spent a lot of time writing about this project. We came into it after the war in DRC, when Tenke mining was trading at 0.6CAD and we have seen it sold to Lundin Mining at above 20CAD - sweat memories. Then political uncertainty has taken its force in DRC over the project and we visited the story again only a few times. We are writing here mostly about the companies we are interested in and which we own or have owned before as our investment. We never give any investment advise here - only share our journey and travel notes with you. You have to decide always by yourself: what and when to buy, sell or just enjoy the scenery we are writing about. Always consult with qualified financial adviser, who shares you views and investment goals.

Tenke Fungurume is back and so we are with our pen and paper to share with you this story again. We have another M&A target in the Copper market now back in business. We would expect a new coverage issued on the company and more investment research from Canadian financial institutions, with potential upgrades on valuation. Company is up today on volume - chart shows the cup and handle formation - break out to the upside is in the cards with high copper prices. The share price will have to reflect new valuation with settled political uncertainty over this huge copper project in DRC. Country discount will always be there, but the fact that Tenke Fungurume is now producing and will expand its production rate at these prices will drive the valuation.

Lundin Mining presentation: 2010 Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Mining Conference

Tenke Fungurume Video

Lundin Mining will present now a sizable opportunity as a target itself with market cap at 4 billion now. According to CIBC "Be Long What China's Short. M&A will drive this sector activity and we have just a few quality juniors with large copper deposits to go after."

Lundin Mining is in no way a junior mining company, will have attention from Majors in the Copper sector. Freeport McMoran - J/V partner on Tenke Fungurume - will be a natural suitor for this Jewell. In our logic it have to attempt at least to buy out the share of Lundin Mining in Tenke Fungurume - otherwise it will be done by others and Chinese, who are very active in DRC, will be backed by the DRC government in this case. An outright bid for all Lundin Mining operations could be in the cards as well.

We believe that Lukas Lundin will have to make his move and show that now - with cash flow from Tenke Fungurume and further expansion of production in DRC - he can build value in Lundin Mining itself. Realisation of the facts, described above, by the market could bring the share price north of CAD10.0 (we will not be surprised to see a target price of this magnitude with company's book value at around CAD5.2 now and E/P at CAD 0.13 in Q2 2010). Lukas will be again in a very favorable position after these very tough few years for the company. He can and should use his currency - shares in the company above CAD10.0 to buy another companies with sizable projects at still undervalued valuations among juniors. He should definitely, in our opinion, to study well opportunities for acquisition in CIBC report. His another company - NGeX Resources is a part of that M&A list with its properties in Argentina, Chile, Africa and Canada is moving up nicely in price these days as well. TNR Gold has a few J/V projects with NGeX Resources in Argentina. Lukas Lundin was buying recently NGeX Resources in the market.



We won't speculate about Lundin Mining involvement, potentially, in Los Azules story, but will point to the few facts, which are keeping us guessing about the future move.  Lukas was personally involved in TNR Gold as an investor at one point, knows management there very well and Paul Conibear - Senior Vice president of Lundin Mining corporate development - served on the Board of TNR Gold for a few years. By the way - Tenke Fungurume is his baby - we would like to congratulate Paul and all team at Lunidin Mining with this ground breaking achievement for the company. Lukas was investing in Minera Andes before as well, at least before Rob McEwen came into the picture. We do not know, what stake he has now, but he knows the story about Los Azules very well. Rob is more of a gold guy and Lukas knows the basic metals commodity story very well, particularly copper. Will it make sense for Rob to sell Los Azules to Lukas Lundin at the right price after settlement with TNR Gold and clearing the property title?  We do not know at this moment, but any twist in this direction can bring a new dynamic to the all situation regarding Los Azules and its development. It is too early to say more about it at this moment.

Another interesting move by Lundin Mining could be in its core zinc business with Canada Zinc Metals still in the M&A picture. Even after Chinese involvement, company is still at the very attractive levels of valuation. Its Akie deposit represents one of the largest zinc and lead deposits in the world and based in  Canada. With recent financing from Tongling, Chinese giant will have more than 30% in Canada Zinc Metals, Lundin Mining is the second largest shareholder after Tongling now in that company. We were thinking that Mandarin will be the only language for all presentations in that company, but found recently information on the bullboard about Lundin Mining visits to the Akie property - it could be easily confirmed by the management.

"As I have a large shareholding in CZX I stay in regular communication with management. A team from Lundin Mining was up at the property not too long ago. Apparently the visit went very well...don't forget Lukas Lundin is a wheeler and dealer. Trust me - others are knocking too.
Any sophisticated investor (and I know you are one) knows that all it would take is a large pp with another mining company (including Lundin Mining) and the playing field is levelled."

We have mentioned before: 

"Among the other developments today, we have mentioned that Lundin Mining has increased its loan facility and the maturity of the loan - will Lukas Lundin go shopping one day to increase his resource base for the next leg up in this commodity bull? He still maintains stake in Canada Zinc Metals along with all Chinese participants - should someone decide to chase this dragon - story could become very interesting."




The nearest future will show how our Value Web in a very close and interconnected sector will play itself out. Today we can say only one thing - that Lukas Lundin is back after the crisis and he is stronger then ever, our big picture view is the ideal world for his Midas touch. We will expect him making headlines in the nearest future on a different M&A fronts.

Please, do not forget, that we own stocks we are writing about and have position in these companies. We are not providing any investment advise on this blog and there is no solicitation to buy or sell any particular company here. Always consult with your qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

Lundin partner completes positive Tenke review

2010-10-22 07:12 ET - News Release

Mr. Phil Wright reports

LUNDIN ANNOUNCES SUCCESSFUL COMPLETION OF TENKE FUNGURUME CONTRACT REVIEW PROCESS

Lundin Mining Corp. has learned the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. have successfully concluded the review of Tenke Fungurume Mining's (TFM) contracts. The joint news release reports as follows:

QUOTE

KINSHASA, DRC and PHOENIX, AZ, October (22), 2010 - The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) announced today the successful conclusion of the review of Tenke Fungurume Mining's (TFM) contracts. The conclusion of the review process by the DRC government confirms that the Tenke Fungurume contracts are in good standing, and acknowledges the parties' continuing commitment to the rights and benefits granted under the existing TFM contracts.

In connection with the review, the parties will incorporate clarifying language that its rights and obligations are governed by the mining convention. TFM's key fiscal terms, including a 30-per-cent income tax rate, 2-per-cent mining royalty rate and 1-per-cent export fee, will continue to apply and are consistent with the rates in the DRC's current mining code.

His Excellency the Minister of Mines of the DRC and FCX chief executive Richard Adkerson issued the following joint statement: "We are pleased to announce completion of the contract revisitation process for Tenke Fungurume Mining. The parties worked cooperatively to reach a mutually satisfactory conclusion of the issues raised during the process. This important milestone provides the basis for future cooperation and enables TFM to pursue additional investments to develop this massive project to its full potential."

Mr. Adkerson expressed his appreciation to His Excellency the President of the DRC, His Excellence the Minister of Mines and the Minister's staff for their efforts in completing the review. Mr. Adkerson stated: "We are committed to continuing our positive partnership with the DRC government and providing significant benefits to the Congolese people for decades to come. We look forward to continued development of Tenke Fungurume into one of the world's premier copper and cobalt operations, using world-class standards for environmental management and social programs. The project will provide large and sustainable benefits associated with employment, infrastructure development, taxes, royalties and other benefits to the government and Congolese people over its long life."

TFM agreed to several additional commitments, including an increase in Gecamines ownership interest in TFM from 17.5 per cent to 20 per cent; an additional royalty of $1.2-million for each 100,000 metric tonnes of proven and probable copper reserves above 2.5 million metric tonnes; additional payments totalling $30-million to be paid in six instalments upon reaching certain production milestones; conversion of $50-million in intercompany loans to equity; and a payment of $5-million for surface area fees. In addition, TFM has agreed to expand Gecamines's participation in TFM management and reiterated its commitment to the use of local services and Congolese employment. In connection with the agreed modifications, the parties have agreed to increase the annual interest rate on advances from the current rate of LIBOR plus 2 per cent to LIBOR plus 6 per cent. These terms have been agreed to by TFM, its shareholders and the DRC government and will be incorporated into the related agreements.

The Tenke Fungurume mining concessions are located in the Katanga province of the DRC approximately 110 miles northwest of Lubumbashi. Copper production commenced last year on the approximately $2-billion initial development project, the largest such capital investment in the DRC in recent years. Current operations are designed to produce approximately 250 million pounds of copper and 18 million pounds of cobalt per year and the operation is currently being expanded to approximately 290 million pounds of copper per annum starting in 2011. The initial development project was designed and constructed in world-class fashion, using leading-edge technology and following international best practice standards for environmental management, occupational safety and social responsibility. TFM continues to engage in drilling activities, exploration analysis and metallurgical testing, and has commenced feasibility studies to evaluate the potential of this highly prospective mining district that will enable significant future expansion and enhance the long-term partnership with Gecamines, the government of the DRC, and the Congolese people. In the aggregate, through June 30, 2010, tax and related payments to government institutions, transfer bonuses, and social spending within the DRC has totalled approximately $370-million since the project's inception. TFM estimates more than two-thirds of the economic benefits from the project remain in the DRC in the form of taxes, royalties and duties, and the provision of local services."

UNQUOTE

The company notes that the shareholding change benefiting Gecamines will be shared proportionately by Lundin Mining and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. As a result Lundin Mining's equity interest in TFM will reduce from 24.75 per cent to 24 per cent. The company will benefit from the increase in the annual interest rate on advances from the current rate of LIBOR plus 2 per cent to LIBOR plus 6 per cent.

Commenting on the news, Lukas Lundin, chairman of Lundin Mining, said, "We are very pleased to have achieved this resolution which has important benefits as we and our partners continue to pursue the significant potential of the highly prospective mineral district at Tenke Fungurume."

We seek Safe Harbor."

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Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC "'s calling..."

"Lundin's calling

Despite the runup in prices of various base metals, Lundin Mining's stock has been stuck in park. Then, when it told investors last month that analysts were being way too optimistic about its production levels, the stock price collapsed. Where other miners like BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) and Teck Cominco are up 20% to 60%, Lundin's shares sit more than 20% below where they were last March.
There could be reasons to hope for Lundin's future performance. Although zinc prices were soft in the fourth quarter and squeezed Lundin's profit margins, they've jumped 11% in the last week alone. Nickel's up even more at 17%. Yet investors might still want to be cautious. With commodities driven by demand, and a slowdown in the U.S. deepening, metal prices may very well sag again.
More than 700 investors have weighed in on the metals company, and less than a dozen think it's a canary in a coal mine. As many as 98% believe it will outperform the market. Top-rated CAPS All-Star UncommonSense, with a 93.96 player rating, viewed Lundin almost a month ago as not only a valuable long-term play in its own right, but thought its current depressed prices make it an outstanding acquisition target:
Lundin Mining ... mines copper, zinc, lead, and silver. They operate 5 mines, 4 of which regularly increase production levels every quarter (and usually by double digits yoy). Copper prices are firming up. ... They just finalized a deal to buy a major copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and they are in the process of developing a major surface mine in Russia. ... They have virtually no debt and ample room to expand in coming years as commodity prices continue to rapidly outpace inflation. ... Even if LMC is not taken over by an ambitious private equity group or a hungry metal conglomerate, its own individual growth prospects seem to shine.
CAPS investor MUGNUS agreed, writing in late January that growth prospects based on demand for what Lundin is pulling out of the ground suggests up is the only way for the stock to go:
Global buildout should prop this company up along with continued use of metals in more and more 'stuff.' Mines are in shorter and shorter order and the demand for the metals continues to rise annually. "

http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2008/03/10/tomorrows-monster-stocks.aspx

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC insiders are buying again

It is important to note it is not Lundin Mining Buy back, but Lundin family is buying another 1.6 million shares at the recent market prices:


Feb 24/08
Feb 13/08
Ellegrove Capital Ltd.
Indirect Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
1,000,000
$7.830
Feb 24/08
Feb 12/08
Ellegrove Capital Ltd.
Indirect Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
300,000
$8.510
Feb 24/08
Feb 11/08
Ellegrove Capital Ltd.
Indirect Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
300,000
$8.136

http://canadianinsider.ca/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=LUN

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC Tenke Fungurume

Nothing is new here, DRC government would like to get bigger cut, the most important news are that contracts are valid and Tenke Fungurume NPV can sustain bigger payout to DRC.

"Without going into the exact demands made, the common themes identifiable from the statements released thus far seem to be:
More for the DRC government;
More for local communities;
No need to disrupt operations so long as companies accept the new terms."

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=40694

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC Tenke Fungurume

"Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc said on Wednesday it was confident a review of foreign mining contracts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo would allow it to go ahead and develop the Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine project in the African nation."

http://www.mining-journal.com/Breaking_News.aspx?breaking_news_article_id=4455

How much is Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC Value?

It depends on who is calculating and what information is availible to you. Recent drilling results after 18 months of drillng will be very handy.

With recent price at USD7.8 market cap of Lundin Mining is 3.1 billion. Tenke Fungurume reported almost 500 mln t of 2.6% Cu and 0.2% Co (lowest in inferred category splited almost 50%/50%). It was mentioned once that mineralised material is in the region of 1.5 billion t. If it could happen that resources will be reported at 1 billion t with 2.6% Cu and 0.2% Co it means 57 bil Lb Cu and 4.4 bil Lb Co with price for Cu in the ground of 0.1USD and Co 1.5USD rock value of Tenke Fungurume is 12.3 bil USD. Lundin Mining share is 24.75% (now before DRC resolution) it is 3.0 bil USD. So if this calculation could be true Lundin Mining now is worth only its Tenke Share.

Who will be the best to know whether there is really 1 billion t of 2.65 Cu and 0.2 Co?

Move of Freeport-McMoRan after DRC resolution will be very interesting.

You can put any discount here, slice it and dice it - the price will be determend by those who are ready to pay.

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC Merrill Lynch launched coverage with a buy rating and a $12 target.

"Lundin Mining climbed 20 cents to $8.27 after Merrill Lynch launched coverage on the Vancouver-based global mining company with a buy rating and a $12 target. Shares of Lundin have dropped by half since July and by 40 per cent since October as the commodity rally faded and traders worried over the licensing status of the Tenke copper mine in the Democratic Republic on Congo."

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/story.html?id=1aac6af4-62b7-457e-aeb0-30692ae07aaa&k=75525

Lundin mining LUN.to LMC Tenke Fungurume

Lundin mining and Freeport-McMoRan are ready for a run - I do not expect any material changes to thier contracts, removed uncertainty will bring both stocks back onto uptrend.

Congo mining review results in two weeks - minister

By Joe Bavier
KINSHASA (Reuters) - Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will announce the results of a long-delayed review of mining contracts in two weeks' time, the central African country's deputy mines minister said on Thursday.
The former Belgian colony set up a commission to review some 60 mining contracts last year after a new government was named following the first democratic elections in more than four decades in 2006.
The process, which aims to clean up deals agreed during the chaos of a 1998-2003 war and ensure a fair share of mining revenues for the state, has been repeatedly delayed.
The contracts include deals with international firms such as Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc, BHP Billiton and Nikanor.
"It is in the interests of DRC and its investors that the elements of contracts that need to be adjusted are dealt with quickly and clearly," Deputy Mines Minister Victor Kasongo said in a statement.
Companies with contracts under review would receive a summary of the commission's findings in two weeks, the statement said. They would then be consulted on any changes or renegotiation of the current agreements.
On Tuesday, Kasongo announced during the Indaba mining conference in Cape Town that the commission was planning to fast-track the review process.
"Our task is to get these contracts through the process, and to ensure as a result that the mining companies in DRC combine high profits and shareholder value with absolute political and legal security," Kasongo said.
Last year the country's mines minister reassured investors, saying most mining companies operating in Congo would remain in the long term despite the review.
However, in November, a leaked preliminary report from the commission said that all the contracts under review should be cancelled or renegotiated and that no contract it saw was considered "viable" in its current form.
Interest in the former Belgian colony's once mighty mining sector -- a potential treasure trove of unexploited concessions -- has boomed since the 2006 elections, meant to draw a line under years of conflict and decades of mismanagement.

http://africa.reuters.com/business/news/usnBAN824493.html

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC "$900mDRC copper mine to come on stream in '09"

"It was announced on Wednesday that mine production at the $900-million Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt project in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) would begin next year.Lundin Mining Senior vice president of projects Paul Conibear stated that the Tenke Fungurume project, which had an inferred resource of 235-million tons of copper, would mine the world’s largest and richest deposit of copper-cobalt.Lundin Mining held a 24,75% interest in the Tenke Fungurume project while the company's operating partner, Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold held a 57,75% interest and La Generale des Carrieres et des Mines, the DRC State-mining company, held the remaining 17,5% interest.Conibear stated that construction of the initial phase of operations was well under way, although he admitted that production start-up was slightly behind the initial schedule of the fourth quarter 2008.This was due to due to delays in construction works. Nevertheless, he said that to date approximately 55% of design and 70% of procurement had been completed.In addition some 15% of the construction work has been completed, which included the bulk earthworks at the plant site and shop areas as well as the concrete work.Conibear said that the project was about 40% complete overall."

"Conibear also stated that aggressive exploration work was in progress on the Tenke Fungurume mineral concessions with the aim of upgrading resources to reserves to support expansion plans. To date, 31 000 m had been drilled and nine rigs were currently active across the concession."

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/article.php?a_id=126247

"Fast-track" is what we need now to remove uncertainty:

DRC to launch "fast track" appeal for mining review

http://www.mining-journal.com/Breaking_News.aspx?breaking_news_article_id=4403

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC my voice in the desert.

Dear Sophia,

Please forward the following message to Chairman of Lundin Mining Mr Lukas Lundin.

Dear Sir,

I think it is very good time to break the silence and bring some positive news to the market in light of latest negative news about restatement and uncertainty about the company.

I still strongly believe that you are building one of the most interesting companies in the resource sector, but if company fails to outline active damage control strategy at the very important resistance level at 7CAD, stock will fall and Company will be bought for peanuts of its real value.

Even most devoted shareholders of your company can not find answers about recent negative developments and are waiting for your active role in current crises.

http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2008/02/lundin-mining-lunto-lmc-major-risk-is.html

Sincerely yours,

Sufiy.

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC major risk is To Be Sold at Low Price

Lets shareholders voice to be heard! We need to wake up those guys.

Send this chart by email or by fax to attention of Mr Lukas Lundin Chairman of Lundin Mining:

Vancouver Office: 2101-885 West Georgia Street Vancouver BC, Canada V6C 3E8

Tel: +1-604 689 7842

Fax: +1-604 689 4250
sophias@namdo.com

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC Freeport-MacMoRan FCX Hot Commodities CNBC

"Tenke Fungurume is a Major project we are very exited about. Government is encouranging us to move forward, we have begun construction and expecting contract to be approved."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=633485197&play=1

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC and Juniors mining is all about Infrastructure Boom

This is what we are talking about: crazy price from MSFT for YHOO is very important indicator that market is alive and people are ready to overpay for things they think they are need badly. Now have a look at CHINALCO paying for stake in RIO Tinto and Infrastructure Boom in Things that are Nessesary:

http://www.usfunds.com/docs/pdf/InfrastructureWebcast01222008.pdf

Lundin Mining LMC LUN.to To Restate

No positive spinn on this one, it is dissapointing.

Now it is imporatnt to see how the company will manage the damage. It appeared to be rather technical: "(Company) ...advises that it has been informed by its tax advisors in Portugal that there has been misinterpretation of applicable tax legislation relating to certain tax rate reductions that have been claimed by Somincor, the Company's operating subsidiary in Portugal. Because a lower tax rate than allowed has been used, Somincor has under declared past tax contributions in Portugal."

CC will be handy and assurance from NEW CEO that this is the only issue with the company. This is my biggest concern. If it is the case, then from last 4 quaters of Earnings about 367.7 mil we have to substruct 55.o which will bring us to 312.7 "restated" earnings or 0.8USD EPS. With stock at USD7.88 we will be at P/E9.85. So it was hopefully already factored in the current share price. If the Company will keep market in the dark uncertanty will bring stock under pressure. Otherwise as I have stated before company will be bought out for its ASSETS, once Congo Tenke Fungurume will be resolved.

In any case it is not helping, and one more time do not bet your house on this one, as I have mentioned before.

My call is still in place on Tenke Fungurume Assets which are not factored in the price in any case now.

Lundin Mining LMC LUN.to Tenke Fungurume update

Slide 17

Initial Estimates of Reserves 100MM metric tones 2.3%Cu 0.3%Co
Leach Tank construction

Slide 21

Less then half of 600 sq m concession explored, strike length over 80 km

Slide 22

+70km of drilling with 10 drill rigs (!) $ 20 million


http://www.fcx.com/ir/2008present/FCX%204Q07.pdf


Rebel ex-general, armed groups sign peace pact in DR Congo

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/afp/20080124/twl-drcongo-peace-4bdc673.html

As always now we can only speculate who would like to take Lundin Mining out, but it will make sense at least for FCX once the situation will be resolved in DRC.

Institutions continue to accumulate:

http://www.thebuylist.com/default.aspx?Stock=lmc

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC DRC update

BIGGER, FASTER IN THE DRC
Freeport reiterated its previous forecast of achieving first production next year at the Tenke Fungurume mine, in the DRC, despite a mining contract review being carried out by the country's government.
Jitters rippled through the mining community in November last year, after an unofficial report was leaked to the media claiming that almost all of the 60-plus mining contracts in the DRC would be affected by the review.
Since then, however, the government has been largely silent, in the public domain at least, over the status of the review.
“There has been no official word from the government on that process...but ...the government is encouraging us to go forward with the project and to go forward faster and bigger,” Adkerson said in response to an analyst question.
Tenke Fungurume could be the largest, undeveloped, high-grade copper/cobalt project in the world, according to the company, which has budgeted $500-million in capital expenditure for the project this year.
Freeport-McMoRan had also committed to finance an electrical power project that would service the Tenke Fungurume mine, VP for communications Bill Collier told Mining Weekly Online.
He declined to provide further details regarding the project or what costs would be involved.
Freeport-McMoRan owns a 57,75% stake in the mine, while Vancouver-based Lundin Mining holds 24,75% and DRC State-owned miner Gecamines owns the balance.
'the government is encouraging us to go forward with the project '
Adkerson said that the company was pursuing an “aggressive” exploration programme, aimed at identifying further potential for mines on the Tenke Fungurume orebody.
About 22% of the group's exploration budget for this year had been allocated to Tenke Fungurume, and the nearby Kisanfu prospect, also in the DRC. (This will be next catalyst S.)
The current project, which will have its first full year of output in 2010, will produce an average of 250-million pounds of copper and 18-million pounds of cobalt a year.

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/article.php?a_id=125140

Lundin Mining LMC LUN.to Update

Move to appointment of the new CEO should be only first step in recent shake up of the Company. Guys inside looks like understand the situation and new leadership was needed for a change. We can expect few new moves within the company, it is going to reposition itself. Now market is accounting its value as a Zinc company when in fact only around of 25% of its revenue comes from Zinc. From now on much attention will be put to execution and positioning of the company in the investment community. Stock is among 20 top shorted stocks on TSX now and shareholders definitely must demand better communication from new CEO. Actually the guy was brought back from the retirement and he was in charge before for Alumbrera and Tenke Mining during the war after that. The major value which will bring totally new meaning to the company is Tenke Fungurume. PHD was drilling for 20 months now without reporting any new resources, they can not promote it before the official resolution from DRC. They are behind the schedule on time and money, but everything is speeding up now with 20 new guys put in place in DRC and the guy in charge there is from Indonesia development team. Latest reported rout was actually some kind of bogus fraud from locals, somebody promised to villagers employment at that day and even charged them with 30 bucks each. There is no any serious issues at the moment and work is going at full speed. All this information based on rumours and unofficial sources. Shorts will be smashed to the wall as soon as market will realise real asset value in this story.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080117.RLUNDIN17/TPStory/Business

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC H&S Bullish Trend Reversal in the making (?)

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC is at Buy.

Orchestrated rate cuts by Canada, Bank of England and coming rate cut by FED means only one thing: more and more liquidity. Where all these money will end up? Most part will come as payment for goods in China and Oil producing states, they will buy commodities to build infrastructure, silver to produce electronics, gold and silver to protect their wealth from FIAT currencies going down in value with great REINFLATION CYCLE.