We are following Toby Connor with his very interesting concept of The Great Inflation in 2014. Gold was in a breakout mood this week and finally has broken to the upside from $1270 level with intraday high on Friday at $1,322 and close at $1,319. We have now the massive short squeeze in action in Gold and Silver. Silver has broken to the upside as well on Friday closing at $21.51. Gold mining shares are making the very good progress as well.
On the chart above you can see that Gold has crossed the very important level on daily chart and moved above its 200MA at $1,309. It will bring a lot of attention of traders and shorts will be running to the exit now. Mass media will be picking up the Gold story as well now. CNBC is talking about Gold and Miners already and Jim Cramer advises to watch GDX - Gold miners ETF. Next levels in Gold to watch is $1,360 and $1,420 to complete Double Bottom Reversal pattern on weekly chart.
Silver had its massive breakout as well following the Gold footsteps this week. Next levels to watch here are $22.75 and $25 to confirm its Double Bottom Reversal pattern on weekly chart. The most important here that Silver has broken to the upside above its 200MA at $21.13 and closed above it at $21.49.
Gold Breaks 1,320: The Mother Of Short Squeeze Has Arrived TNR.v MUX GDX GLD SLV RGLD ABX GG
"Gold is sending its Happy Valentines to all Gold Bugs today and breaks $1320 on the massive short squeeze. Gold shorts will have their Blood Friday now. The real reason for this move is the realisation of the groundbreaking shift in the structure of the Gold market with the unprecedented demand of 2,181 tons of Gold from China in 2013. Janet Yellen testimony has opened the possibility To Taper The Taper and James Rickards is calling for the Taper Pause in June. US dollar is going down very close to 80.00 level again. This level will be protected, but should the US Dollar break down below 80.00 Gold and Silver will go vertical towards $1,500 and $25 respectively.Our short Squeeze watch includes McEwen Mining and TNR Gold. McEwen Mining had 26.8 million shares sold short or 8.6 days to cover, according to NASDAQ. MUX.to has rocketed from December low of CAD1.80 to CAD3.27 close yesterday. Gold breakout will push shorts into the corner, but explosive move in Silver will have even more effect on this company.
TNR Gold is still day dreaming, but move in McEwen Mining should pull out this junior out of its misery. Los Azules Copper development will be next to watch on the back of recent M&A activity in the sector and CRB - commodity index breakout to the upside."
Koos Jansen: January Chinese Gold Demand All-Time Record, 247 Tons TNR.v MUX GLD GDX RGLD
Koos Jansen reports on continued unprecedented appetite from China for Gold, according to his information, after the unprecedented demand of 2,181 tons of Gold from China in 2013 Chinese Gold demand hits All-Time record of 247 tons in January. Now Gold today's breakout above $1,322 level can be put in another perspective.Toby Connor: The Great Inflation Of 2014 - Gold And Silver To Rise TNR.v, MUX, GDX, GLD, SLV
"Toby Connor provides very interesting technical view on the general markets, Commodities, Gold and Silver. Nobody can find inflation these days and his take on the final rise and bust in the general markets is very intriguing. Our own observations confirm the CRB - Commodities Index breakout and that Gold is knocking on the $1270 with huge break out to the upside after that. Supply and Demand picture provides further support to the technical observations in Gold and Silver markets these days. Where the Gold will come from in the future with China record buying continued? M&A activity will be driving the next Bull market in Gold and Silver miners."
Gold Scents:
Toby Connor
Today another piece fell into place in my Great Inflation scenario that I'm expecting for 2014.
Before I begin let me recap. My overarching driver for the Great Inflation scenario is that the dollar would have some kind of crisis, or semi-crisis late this year as it drops down into its major three year cycle low. All other stock and commodity movements will be driven by this impending currency crisis.
For stocks, I'm expecting a final bubble phase parabolic spike over the next 4-5 months, followed by a devastating crash as the parabola collapses in June or July.
For commodities, I'm expecting a stealth rally for another month to a month and a half, followed by a super spike inflationary phase in the latter half of the year as the dollar collapse reaches maximum intensity.
Today the dollar broke through its intermediate trend line confirming that an intermediate degree decline is now in progress.
Since this intermediate cycle topped on week two in a left translated manner, the odds are very high that the dollar is going to break below the October low before this intermediate cycle bottoms. I'm actually expecting another test of the megaphone topping pattern trend line before this intermediate cycle bottoms sometime in March or early April.
The real damage is yet to come later in the year though.
The next component is the stock market. The movement in stocks over the next 4-5 months is a very important component for the Great Inflation to unfold. Stocks must enter a final parabolic melt up, bubble phase during the first half of this year. The very mild intermediate cycle low that bottomed last week has set the stage for this scenario to begin. In only five days the NASDAQ 100 has already moved back to new highs. This confirms my expectation that we are going to see the NASDAQ test the all-time highs above 5000 before this cyclical bull market comes to an end.
At that point the parabolic advance in the stock market will experience its initial collapse, and I expect the S&P will crash at least back to the 2000/2007 support zone at 1550. This is another critical component for the Great Inflation to unfold as it will cause Yellen to panic, reverse the taper, and probably initiate QE5 & 6. This won't reflate the broken parabola but it will trigger a reaction rally before the collapse continues into a massive bear market that will bottom below 666 sometime in early to mid-2016.
QE 5 & 6 will be the final nail in the coffin for the dollar, and will trigger a full break of the megaphone top. I expect a move below the 2011 and 2008 bottoms before the dollar completes its final three year cycle low.
Commodity markets have already begun the stealth rally that I was looking for during the first half of this year. They successfully tested the 2012 three year cycle low and have now broken through the multiyear downtrend line. The Great Inflation has begun.
During this stealth rally I'm expecting gold to test the initial April breakdown at 1520 over the next 1-2 months.
That should push sentiment levels to bullish extremes from their current depressed levels, triggering an intermediate degree profit taking event into May or June as the stock market finishes its final parabolic blow off top.
As you can see silver sentiment is already recovering nicely and today's move will likely push sentiment to levels next week requiring the metals to pull back and take a breather.
Over the next 4-5 months the easy money is going to be playing the final bubble phase in the stock market. Bubble tops don't come around very often, but when they do traders can make an obscene amount of money in a short period of time.
Once the stock market bubble pops, and Yellen starts QE5 that's the point at which the Great Inflation will begin in earnest, and I believe gold will probably rocket from an intermediate bottom of around 1350-1400 this summer, to test $2000 by the end of the year. This is the phase where the metals become the "easy trade".
Over the next couple of months everything should generally rise together. But once the dollar puts in an intermediate bottom sometime in March or April, commodities and gold will move down into an intermediate correction as the stock market completes its final blow off top. After the stock market parabola collapses later this summer it will be time to put the pedal to the metal in the commodity markets, and especially the precious metal markets as the Great Inflation begins in earnest.
If you are interested in reading my daily and weekend commentary on the movement of the markets, along with accessing the changes in my portfolio positions in real-time and conversing with other investor/traders via my blog, please consider purchasing a $10 trial subscription."
Before I begin let me recap. My overarching driver for the Great Inflation scenario is that the dollar would have some kind of crisis, or semi-crisis late this year as it drops down into its major three year cycle low. All other stock and commodity movements will be driven by this impending currency crisis.
For stocks, I'm expecting a final bubble phase parabolic spike over the next 4-5 months, followed by a devastating crash as the parabola collapses in June or July.
For commodities, I'm expecting a stealth rally for another month to a month and a half, followed by a super spike inflationary phase in the latter half of the year as the dollar collapse reaches maximum intensity.
Today the dollar broke through its intermediate trend line confirming that an intermediate degree decline is now in progress.
Since this intermediate cycle topped on week two in a left translated manner, the odds are very high that the dollar is going to break below the October low before this intermediate cycle bottoms. I'm actually expecting another test of the megaphone topping pattern trend line before this intermediate cycle bottoms sometime in March or early April.
The real damage is yet to come later in the year though.
The next component is the stock market. The movement in stocks over the next 4-5 months is a very important component for the Great Inflation to unfold. Stocks must enter a final parabolic melt up, bubble phase during the first half of this year. The very mild intermediate cycle low that bottomed last week has set the stage for this scenario to begin. In only five days the NASDAQ 100 has already moved back to new highs. This confirms my expectation that we are going to see the NASDAQ test the all-time highs above 5000 before this cyclical bull market comes to an end.
At that point the parabolic advance in the stock market will experience its initial collapse, and I expect the S&P will crash at least back to the 2000/2007 support zone at 1550. This is another critical component for the Great Inflation to unfold as it will cause Yellen to panic, reverse the taper, and probably initiate QE5 & 6. This won't reflate the broken parabola but it will trigger a reaction rally before the collapse continues into a massive bear market that will bottom below 666 sometime in early to mid-2016.
QE 5 & 6 will be the final nail in the coffin for the dollar, and will trigger a full break of the megaphone top. I expect a move below the 2011 and 2008 bottoms before the dollar completes its final three year cycle low.
Commodity markets have already begun the stealth rally that I was looking for during the first half of this year. They successfully tested the 2012 three year cycle low and have now broken through the multiyear downtrend line. The Great Inflation has begun.
During this stealth rally I'm expecting gold to test the initial April breakdown at 1520 over the next 1-2 months.
That should push sentiment levels to bullish extremes from their current depressed levels, triggering an intermediate degree profit taking event into May or June as the stock market finishes its final parabolic blow off top.
Source: sentimenTrader.com
As you can see silver sentiment is already recovering nicely and today's move will likely push sentiment to levels next week requiring the metals to pull back and take a breather.
Source: sentimenTrader.com
Once the stock market bubble pops, and Yellen starts QE5 that's the point at which the Great Inflation will begin in earnest, and I believe gold will probably rocket from an intermediate bottom of around 1350-1400 this summer, to test $2000 by the end of the year. This is the phase where the metals become the "easy trade".
Over the next couple of months everything should generally rise together. But once the dollar puts in an intermediate bottom sometime in March or April, commodities and gold will move down into an intermediate correction as the stock market completes its final blow off top. After the stock market parabola collapses later this summer it will be time to put the pedal to the metal in the commodity markets, and especially the precious metal markets as the Great Inflation begins in earnest.
If you are interested in reading my daily and weekend commentary on the movement of the markets, along with accessing the changes in my portfolio positions in real-time and conversing with other investor/traders via my blog, please consider purchasing a $10 trial subscription."
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