Monday, July 12, 2010

Peak Oil: Lloyd's adds its voice to dire 'peak oil' warnings TNR.v, CZX.v, LI.v, RM.v, LMR.v, CLQ.v, WLC.v, TSAL, BYDDY, NSANY, HEV, AONE, F, BMW, DAI




"Will we wait until it is too late? You would expect that with all recent news from the Gulf about Oil Spill there will be a very intensive discussion about alternative way of powering our lives and Green Revolution in transportation will in focus of mass media. It is not the case yet - there will be a tough road ahead of us.


"This report: "Global Energy Crunch: How different parts of the world would react to a peak oil scenario" by Joerg Friedrichs is a must read for all investors and Obama administration. We guess that actually Obama knows better than many others that there is NO More Cheap Oil Left. With Oil Spill in the headlines and late realisation about the scale of this catastrophe all dreams about cheap oil will vanish, but question remains open: what Obama will be able to chose? Are we grown up enough to push him to endorse new technologies and get off from the Oil addiction or we will witness the Crash of Empire fighting wars which will benefit only few and destroy lives of billions?"



New presentation of data in figure 20 of http:...Image via Wikipedia

We have another report on Peak Oil situation in UK. With rapidly falling oil production from North Sea UK knows at first hand about real cost of oil now. Initiatives to move London at the forefront of Electric Mobility have a very practical meaning with gas prices already more than twice as high as they are in U.S.




Lloyd's and Chatham House report "Sustainable energy security: strategic risks and opportunities for business".



guardian.co.uk:


Lloyd's adds its voice to dire 'peak oil' warnings
Business underestimating catastrophic consequences of declining oil, says Lloyd's of London/Chatham House report
Terry Macalister guardian.co.uk, Sunday 11 July 2010 15.28 BST


One of the City's most respected institutions has warned of "catastrophic consequences" for businesses that fail to prepare for a world of increasing oil scarcity and a lower carbon economy.

The Lloyd's insurance market and the highly regarded Royal Institute of International Affairs, known as Chatham House, says Britain needs to be ready for "peak oil" and disrupted energy supplies at a time of soaring fuel demand in China and India, constraints on production caused by the BP oil spill and political moves to cut CO2 to halt global warming.

"Companies which are able to take advantage of this new energy reality will increase both their resilience and competitiveness. Failure to do so could lead to expensive and potentially catastrophic consequences," says the Lloyd's and Chatham House report "Sustainable energy security: strategic risks and opportunities for business".

The insurance market has a major interest in preparedness to counter climate change because of the fear of rising insurance claims related to property damage and business disruption. The review is groundbreaking because it comes from the heart of the City and contains the kind of dire warnings that are more associated with environmental groups or others accused by critics of resorting to hype. It takes a pot shot at the International Energy Agency which has been under fire for apparently under-estimating the threats, noting: "IEA expectations [on crude output] over the last decade have generally gone unmet."

The report the world is heading for a global oil supply crunch and high prices owing to insufficient investment in oil production plus a rebound in global demand following recession. It repeats warning from Professor Paul Stevens, a former economist from Dundee University, at an earlier Chatham House conference that lack of oil by 2013 could force the price of crude above $200 (£130) a barrel.

It also quotes from a US department of energy report highlighting the economic chaos that would result from declining oil production as global demand continued to rise, recommending a crash programme to overhaul the transport system. "Even before we reach peak oil," says the Lloyd's report, "we could witness an oil supply crunch because of increased Asian demand. Major new investment in energy takes 10-15 years from the initial investment to first production, and to date we have not seen the amount of new projects that would supply the projected increase in demand."

And while the world is gradually moving to new kinds of clean energy technologies the insurance market warns that there could be shortages of earth metals and other raw materials needed to help them thrive.

Lloyd's also calls on manufacturers, retailers and the wider business community to reassess global supply chains and their just-in time models because the "current system is increasingly vulnerable to disruption."

The report says government needs to do much more to bring additional price stability and transparency if the global carbon market is to become a reality.

Richard Ward, chief executive of Lloyd's, said the failure of the Copenhagen climate change talks last December has helped lull many business leaders into a false sense of security about the challenges ahead. "We are in a period akin to a phony war. We keep hearing of difficulties to come, but with oil, gas and coal still broadly accessible – and largely capable of being distributed where they are needed – the bad times have not yet hit ... all businesses ... will be affected by energy supplies which are less reliable and more expensive."

• This article was amended on 12 July 2010. The original referred to Chatham House as being the Institute of Strategic Studies. It is the Royal Institute of International Affairs."
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