CS. After Janet Yellen's testimony fundamental picture for Gold is very bright, QE is assured "until the economic data will justify the opposite". Even after The Taper, we will have the credit expansion in the monetary base ongoing and, maybe, velocity will increase finally with money flowing through financial system.
Question of Taper is still more than open - with Bernanke in office until Jan 31, 2014 we are very doubtful that he will make any decision on part of the FED. With Janet Yellen coming into the picture we can expect even more accommodation until economy will provide the clear signs of improvement in the real economic growth. The main take out for us from Janet Yellen's testimony is that "There Are No Bubbles And More To Be done."
In all normal circumstances Gold will be flying over $2000 long time ago, but we do not have the luxury of free markets with "The FED's 100-Year War Against Gold." Market can not be manipulated forever, particularly when underlining Demand is growing with the suppressed Gold price. China and other Asian countries are more than happy to accumulate cheap Gold and it is flowing from The West To The East at the disturbing record rate. COMEX is running on fumes now and LBMA banks are exposed to the Gold Bank Run with all-time-high leverage of 69 owners per ounce of deliverable Gold.
In all normal market circumstances the Gold chart above will provide a good formation for the higher prices with Bullish free white candles coming out from the very important support - which can confirm the higher low - and momentum indicators turned to the Upside. The reason for it is the US Dollar chart below with very strong Bearish Reversal candle formed last week. Despite very weak data from Europe US Dollar was not able to overcome the reversal so far and its momentum indicators are turning Down. The follow up next week will be very important.
There are a lot of calls for Gold to go down to $1000 level and it could be another very good contrarian indicator. Basically all the events are confirming the ongoing US Dollar debasement case: reduced buying by foreigners of US Treasuries, record level of buying US Treasuries by the FED. Taper talk - which means less Bid from FED for USTs, less demand in the market and higher interest rates and Janet Yellen on the mission with More To Be Done. Debt Ceiling debate entertainment is coming back very soon and Raised Debt Ceiling Does Mean More Debt, whatever spin you would like to put on it.
Frank Holmes provides another insight into the drivers behind the Gold market this days. There is no surprise that China is taking the central stage in this developments.
"We are monitoring the situation with Gold demand from China as it is the main driver for the Gold market now. So far this demand has backed Gold to withstand the numerous attacks in the paper market to allow Janet Yellen to implement even more aggressive easing polices at the FED.
Rising Gold price indicates FIAT currency debasement, pushes real interests up, which economy and fiscal budget can not sustain at the moment. These official Gold holdings numbers are already out of date and the question is how much Gold China really already holds now and you can add to it the state level encouragement for citizens to accumulate Gold in China."
“The past 24 months for precious metals investors has been brutal, but I feel like we’re nearing a bottom,” McEwen said on the call. “We had a brief and explosive rally in August, which I see as a good indication of a potential for large gains going forward.
“And despite a decidedly ugly mood amongst investors, analysts and market commentators, I believe it is an excellent time to be a contrarian,” he added."
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