Thursday, September 24, 2009

Lithium and REE: Report predicts shift to Electric Cars TNR.v, CZX.v, SQM, ROC, FMC, WLC.v, LI.v,, RES.v, RM.v, CLQ.v, F, BYDDY, NSANY, FXI,

We spent some time travelling and will share our travel notes later, for today we can say that Electric Mobility Revolution is happening, it is Lithium, it is safe and it is coming fast. We have met with designers and engineers, we have grilled Lithium batteries' developers and driven Tesla - Energy and Drive are Electric and Eco is the main theme at Frankfurt Motor Show this year.

Renault is the Electric Big Bang of the show with four full electric models and their prediction: " In ten years time 15-20% of cars sold in Europe will be electric". Everybody else is on the rush to be up to speed of development in Green Mobility Race with Mercedes, BMW and Audi shows built around centerpiece: Full Electric models and Hybrid cars.

We have put it before as "Investing in Lithium and REE: Hype, Dreams and Economics" - now we can add that Hype for Electric is at its very beginning, Dreams are at the show and the most important left is economics: regarding cars - you can drive 100km for 2 euro in Germany and even less in Austria; and Renault is claiming the price for the car in normal range with battery leased to the customer; regarding Lithium and REE plays - time is to see who has the goods, strong management and access to the capital. Question whether Electric cars will be on the road with Lithium ion batteries and whether they will have utility and safety matching "normal car" is not there for us aItalicny more.

"Applications of this simple statement could transform our way of life dramatically. Once it was estimated that there will be need in maximum six computers in the world. When have you bought CD last time and paid for your mobile phone? Magnitude of this change in energy space will be even more dramatic socially and economically."

"A COMPREHENSIVE REPORT by international consultancy Deloitte predicts that the future automotive landscape will feature more streamlined production, more rapid adoption of new technologies, and a shift to electric vehicles.
Manufacturing operations will also become concentrated in lower production-cost countries such as China, India and Eastern Europe.
Development costs, environmental concerns and corporate restructuring will be the main issues for the world’s automakers, while consumers will see more platform-sharing in new car line-ups.
Global platforms and cars will be adopted more widely by large automakers such as Toyota, General Motors and Ford, replacing myriad region-specific models and different chassis architectures.
Vehicles like the Holden Cruze represent the first wave of this new trend. Globally-developed and distributed vehicles will be able to recoup development costs quicker due to higher overall sales volumes.
The bulk of car manufacturing is also anticipated to move away from countries with high labour costs such as the USA, Japan and Germany, and migrate to emerging economies in China and India.
The report said that increased investment in production line technology will keep quality levels high, no matter the country of manufacture, and parts suppliers are expected to move overseas too.
According to Deloitte, new markets in developing countries will increase demand for new cars, with China and India to account for most of this new uptake.

The emergence in both countries of a significant middle class should drive sales of private vehicles, and luxury vehicle sales in these markets are also expected to rise.
The report said that car buyers around the world - not just those in developed countries - will become more safety-conscious, and will also demand new high-tech devices in their cars.
Electric vehicles are expected to become prevalent over the next decade, however the high cost of EV battery packs and the continued availability of oil means uptake will be slow to start with.
According to the report, hybrids will be more popular than EVs, but beyond 2020 all-electric vehicles are predicted to be the urban commuter’s conveyance of choice.
Alternative fuels like natural gas and ethanol will likely continue to be flirted with, the report said, but EVs are expected to become more mainstream than hydrocarbon fuels in the long term."
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