Sunday, September 13, 2009

Electric cars market: Essent sees 1 million Dutch electric cars by 2020 TNR.v, CZX.v, SQM, ROC, FMC, WLC.v, CLQ.v, LI.v, AVL.to, RES.v, TTM, TM, DAI,


Everybody will go electric once they see the new BMW plug-in diesel hybrid in Frankfurt.
"Total EVs estimation: 1,635,000. With global car sales estimations of 80 mil in 2015 it will represent 2% of total sales. It is hardly a revolution, but it will bring new demand in lithium space of 40000 t LC, which is an increase of 33% from current level. To put things in perspective 5% adoption rate by 2015 will amount to 100000 additional LC demand and will almost double the market. You can see that our estimations are dependent on advance of a few major players in EV market and Tata's entry into Electric auto space will be very important. Coming auto shows this year will bring us more information.
Our Green Mobility Revolution definition stays for 30% of the market by 2020 which means 24 Mil EVs produced with global auto sales stable at 80 Mil it will account for 600000 t of LC - fivefold increase in Lithium Demand. Next two years will show which scenario will be in place. Catalyst for this structural market shift will come with Peak Oil thesis confirmation and rising oil prices, more government incentives to combat climate change and China's ability to organise a nation wide transition to the new technology and introduce Green Mobility as standard of transportation."
By Catherine Hornby
AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Dutch utility Essent expects to see one million electric vehicles on the roads in the Netherlands by 2020, its head of new energy said on Thursday.
Alexandra van Huffelen said Essent was working with other Dutch companies to stimulate the industry, lobbying the government to speed up the introduction of electric cars and launching demonstration projects around the country.
She expected the first rollout of electric cars on Dutch roads in 2010-11, with more widespread usage around 2015, when advances in battery technology were likely to have reduced costs.
"Battery companies say they expect to improve the batteries, but that will take some time," she said. "That is also why we need a subsidy scheme and tax schemes (to help consumers)."
The one million cars by 2020 would include plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles and match a figure the German government wants to see on its roads by the same date.
The Dutch government introduced a system of incentives earlier this year to encourage companies and individuals to buy electric cars, such as financial support and tax exemptions and has said it will buy electric cars for its own fleet.
Earlier this week, a group of Dutch companies including mail company TNT (TNT.AS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and utility Eneco launched a tender to buy 3,000 electric cars in the next three years.
Grid operators have agreed to build at least 10,000 charging stations around the country by about 2012.
Essent, part of which Germany's RWE (RWEG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) is buying, is developing wind energy plants and looking at ways to use more biomass in power generation as part of its new energy strategy, Van Huffelen said.
She said the ramp-up of electric transport made it even more important for the Dutch government to support and subsidize renewable energy projects such as wind farms.
"If we are going to use even more electricity, then we need to have even more renewable sources than we have today," Van Huffelen said."
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