Sunday, August 02, 2009

Lithium and REE Bull market - Nissan's Leaf is charging Electric Cars' Mass market. TNR.v CZX.v FMC SQM ROC NSANY TM TTM DAI F BYD XAU HUI GDX

Nissan's Leaf is opening electric car mass market. While i-MiEV was still an expensive toy at the announced price levels, Leaf is a full utility electric vehicle capable of 100 mile range and with pricing at the same level as conventional car. Lithium battery will be leased rather then sold to the customers in order to reduce the cost of initial ownership. Lithium race is now officially at the full speed and we expect more announcements to come about new models, better range and the most important - better prices for safer Lithium batteries coming with economics of scale of a mass market. Do you remember the first bricks called mobile phones with price tag of 10000 dollars? When last time have you actually paid for your mobile phone? Nissan claims to spend 17 years on development of recent range of powerful Lithium batteries incorporated in Powertrain of the Leaf. They invested a lot of time and money and ready to take as much as they can from the new market. Get Big Fast is all over again for those who still remembers hey days of last Next Big Thing - Internet and WWW. Nissan announced before its plans for Lithium plants in UK, Portugal and USA with its electric cars plants in USA and Japan. Demand is estimated at level of 10% by 2020 by the company. We think this estimation is for competitors use only. We are betting heavily on Lithium supply chain with our Juniors involved like TNR Gold TNR.v, which will spin out its International Lithium corp. later this year. Chinese are taking notice on the hot Lithium and REE market: from Australia to Canada they are taking stakes in companies engaged in this market. No wonder TNR Gold TNR.v attracted investment from Canada Zinc Metals CZX.v and for those, who follows the company, there is no secret who is backing it now. Chinese Tongling - one of the largest Copper smelters in China engaged in REE market as well - took a 13% stake in CZX.v at double the market price. Our own estimations are much higher for Electric cars' market penetration - at least thirty percent by 2020. Once it was estimated that there is a place for six computers in the world. Electric cars is the base for the next industrial revolution and will drive alternative energy economy for years to come. China and India will leap frog directly into the Green future and West will have to catch up. Cash constrained, coming of work force Baby Boomers will opt for Electric cars, in our view, once they will be proven to be safe and at the same price level as conventional vehicle. People will be ready to invest in a low maintenance and cheap to run vehicles, which will cover their domestic needs. Electric Cars' economics with 3 cents per mile against very fuel efficient 13 cents per mile of oil driven car will be a selling force for the market place. Demand will be fueled by government rebates, lower taxes and lower other ownership fees like congestion charges in London, UK - which are abolished for EVs. Do not underestimate "Feel Good" marketing factor. People will be able to contribute to the common good by just commuting on a safe full utility Electric Vehicle, which will cost less to run. This recession could be later called by historians as an another factor contributed to structural shift in the world economy and start of next industrial revolution based on electric cars. It is the last chance for the West to rebuild its manufacturing base and continue its wealth creation based on solid values and not just redistribute taxpayer's money to the fat cats from Wall Street. Outrage inflated by recent bonuses on the Wall Street is too strong to ignore it and politicians are taking notice: Electric Cars stimulus is going directly into people's pocket, reducing dependence on oil, positively affecting their disposable income and brings jobs to the states supporting it.
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