Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Lithium and REE: Cnooc Group May Set Up Electric-Car Battery Network TNR.v, CZX.v, SQM, FMC, ROC, WLC.v, CLQ.v, AVL.to, RES.v, QUC.v, LI.v, RM.v,

"Nissan-Renault CEO Carlos Ghosn is on a road show, after USA promotion tour he is in Beijing and the chart above tells you why. Electric cars are serious this time and people involved means business investing billions in new disruptive technology - with further technological development cost will go down and electric cars will be within reach most of the consumers even without government subsidies. Now we can say that we have a very serious effort on the part of Nissan-Renault group to make electric cars happen for real this time after so many false starts. Our Lithium Demand model needs to be adjusted with Nissan-Renault production figures from 250000 to 500000 and his estimation of 10% share by electric cars in global auto sales by 2020 could translate into 2.4 times increase in global demand for lithium."

It is just an idea at the moment, but it could be the most dramatic one for electric cars' mass market development : oil companies could be left behind if Green mobility revolution will take a sizable cut into transportation market - who would care about 2% of BEVs on the street? Now add here the the idea about Peak Oil and if it is true, who can know it better than oil companies themselves? We have always assumed that oil companies will be fighting against electric cars - what if we are wrong? What if, at least in some countries, they will take a part in the new market? Even in the Western world Oil companies are those, who are with the money and their aggressive move could bring our Bull market into the new dimension. According to our estimations electric cars with 30% in sales by 2020 will increase Demand for lithium by fivefold. Most forward looking Oil companies could position themselves very nice now to rip benefits of both markets: rising Oil prices with declining production and ongoing electrification of the fleet.

"Bloomberg Cnooc Group May Set Up Electric-Car Battery Network

By Bloomberg News
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- China National Offshore Oil Corp. may build a network of battery-changing stations for electric cars in China, the world’s second-biggest automobile market.
Cnooc Group is considering the plan after the company invested 5 billion yuan ($732 million) in July for a stake in closely held Tianjin Lishen Battery Joint-Stock Co., a mainland battery maker for electric vehicles, Shan Lianwen, director of corporate strategy at China’s third-largest oil producer, said in an interview today.
“It’s just an idea at the moment. We have not carried out a feasibility study,” he said. If oil goes over $80 a barrel for “a long period,” discouraging the use of gasoline, the idea could prove feasible, Shan said. Benchmark oil in New York has risen 76 percent this year to more than $78 a barrel.
China has supported automakers’ investments in alternative- energy vehicles to curb oil imports, reduce pollution and to help the local industry challenge General Motors Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. overseas. Chery Automobile Co., China’s largest maker of own-brand cars, will start selling its first plug-in electric model around June next year.
“Electric cars are unlikely to prove popular for at least five years in China,” said Vivien Chan, a transport analyst at SinoPac Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. “There are questions marks over whether the technology is mature and if the infrastructure needed is in place. The petrol engine will rule for sometime to come,” she said.
Plug-in Cars
Chery expects to sell about 30,000 S18s electric models within three or four years, Fang Yunzhou, vice president of Chery’s new energy vehicle operations, said in an interview on Sept. 3.
The S18 can travel as far as 150 kilometers (93 miles) using just its batteries. Plug-in cars can be recharged from standard household powerpoints.
BYD Co., the Chinese automaker backed by billionaire Warren Buffett, started selling the world’s first mass-produced plug-in hybrid in December.
China is on track to surpass the U.S. as the world’s biggest automobile market by year end, according to official car sales data. China’s monthly passenger car sales passed one million vehicles for the first time in September.
GM, the largest overseas automaker in China, more than doubled September sales from a year earlier to 181,148 vehicles. In the first nine months, it sold 1.29 million, surpassing the tally for the whole of 2008.
Cnooc Group, the parent of Hong Kong-listed Cnooc Ltd., wants to expand its major businesses to include renewable energy and infrastructure construction within 10 years, President Fu Chengyu said in April 2007.
The company said December last year it had agreed to invest 15 billion yuan in renewable energy products and to expand sales in the northern city of Tianjin.
-- Wang Ying, John Duce. Editors: Ang Bee Lin, Jane Lee."
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