Monday, January 19, 2009

JIm Rogers on US Dollar. DXY, GDX, AUY, SLW, TNR.v, CZX.v, SST.v, MGN, ABX

Jim Rogers Says Worried About Dollar, Favors China (Update1)

By Chua Kong Ho and Nipa Piboontanasawat
Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore- based Rogers Holdings, said investors should be “worried” about the U.S. dollar, and recommended selling government bonds and buying raw materials, China stocks and the yen.
“If I were you, I would be worried about the U.S. dollar,” said Rogers, 66, in a speech at the Asia Financial Forum in Hong Kong today. “The Americans are printing U.S. dollars. The Americans are going to do whatever they can to revive their economy, even if it means destroying the U.S. dollar.”
The Dollar Index on ICE Futures, which tracks the greenback versus six major U.S. trading partners, fell 11 percent since Nov. 21, when it reached 88.46, the highest in 19 months. The Japanese yen climbed 12 percent against the dollar over the past three months as investors reduced holdings of higher-yielding assets.
Holding government bonds is a “big mistake” and is going to “end badly,” he said. Investors should favor agriculture, power generation and China shares if they want to make money, said Rogers, who correctly predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999 and has written books including ‘A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World’s Greatest Market.’
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, which tracks 19 commodities, has declined 3.7 percent this month after dropping 36 percent in 2008, its worst annual performance on record.
China Slowdown
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks 43 stocks of Chinese companies traded in Hong Kong, has declined 8.2 percent this year.
China, the world’s third-largest economy, may have expanded at the slowest pace in seven years in the fourth quarter, with gross domestic product rising 6.8 percent from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before a government report due this week.
China’s government unveiled a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package in November, which included spending on roads and bridges.
Rogers said in a Dec. 17 Bloomberg Television interview that he planned to sell the dollar. In a Dec. 31 interview, Rogers said he had been buying Chinese agricultural stocks to benefit from state efforts to bolster economic growth.
Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd., recommended investors buy “anything to do with the Asian consumer, infrastructure, alternative energy and technology.” He made the comments at the same forum.
To contact the reporter responsible for this story: Chua Kong Ho in Shanghai at; Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at Last Updated: January 19, 2009 04:28 EST
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