
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Google GOOG is sailing in Subprime heavy waters
Before chasing upside of 20% from here, print out two tables with Google financial results and ask yourself: will holders of Google with profits from 200 level sell into next earnings or wait for another confirmation of Slowing trend?
Q2 results 2007:https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisFA1dk0HJnnVngO7N7DhC40BAWQUJjGOO-V8oE1RaHoXHm2iJEWZUsJhPmJTA0I_N9T0UUiSziz_gQ_AL2x6kBTnWjWbrnl3qd8P_B_jIkyaJhBovErXfTPSjYJMRoUhOKGW_Iw/s1600-h/scan0011.jpg
Q1 results 2007:
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglzAWhDysrWoyZlMxNW_3hIb7XQMxvGnsL2DtDLosafeRlWhRPDNvkLXfbwwdJmBrqYg1M5iGSItc_JhqxloGT4435UcWWvKZ387_C0LStCgr2lZyWmut1915BQabVYV8uG5FZ3g/s1600-h/scan0008.jpg
Google and Subprime: http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/09/mortgage-impact-on-google-goog.html
Original posts:
Q2: http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/07/google-goog-earnings-and-growth-are.html
Q1: http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/04/google-earnings-eps-is-falling-and.html
Rainy Continues to Intersect Strong Gold Values
"Strong Gold Values in ODM and 17 Zone Drilling: 30.0 Metres Grading 2.04 g/t Gold, 10.0 Metres Grading 2.73 g/t Gold and 6.0 Metres Grading 5.98 g/t Gold"
Rainy River RR.v is still under recent Private Placement Price:
Rainy River RR.v is still under recent Private Placement Price:
"VANCOUVER, British Columbia, August 2, 2007 -- Rainy River Resources Ltd. (TSX-V:RR) (the "Company") is pleased to announce that the Company has closed its private placement of an aggregate of 5,775,000 units of the Company (including full exercise of an over-allotment option consisting of 1,925,000 units) (the "Units") at a price of $5.20 per Unit and 840,000 flow-through common shares of the Company ("FT Shares") at a price of $6.00 per FT Share for gross proceeds of $35,070,000, as previously announced on July 18, 2007 (the "Offering"), all pursuant to an underwriting agreement between the Company and Canaccord Capital Corporation and Wellington West Capital Markets Inc. (collectively, the "Underwriters") dated for reference July 17, 2007."
You can get piece of action below Canaccord Capital which is worth studying. Development is interesting due to proximity to all infrastructure in the region. Website is here: http://www.rainyriverresources.com/s/Home.asp
Sterling Mining SRLM.ob New Catalysis
August turmoil in the markets put on the second plan a lot of positive developments in Junior sector. Sterling Mining is ready for Run in Silver game. Graduation to Toronto Stock Exchange and start of production this year will move the stock back onto radar screen of investment public.
"August 02, 2007Sterling Mining Completes Private Placements And Receives Conditional Approval For Toronto Stock Exchange Listing"
"In addition, the Company has received conditional approval from the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") to list its common shares on the TSX, subject to fulfilling all requirements of the TSX and filing of customary documentation on or prior to October 30, 2007."
Final Prospectus:
http://www.sterlingmining.com/i/pdf/Sterling_Final_Prospectus_09-05-07.pdf
Monday, September 10, 2007
Hedgers are out of fashion in the Gold market.
First Barrick Gold and now NEWCREST to be Hedged is definitely becoming out of fashion. Additional demand for the Gold will push price higher.
Top Aussie gold miner to close out hedge book, restructure finances
"This latest big de-hedging by a major global gold miner, involves the close-out of hedge contracts totalling 2,049,017 ounces, though the company says it will purchase 2.25 M oz of gold put options equivalent to an average of 500,000 oz per annum over 4.5 years, beginning in January 2008. The strike price is $A800/oz ($US657.6/oz)."
""Newcrest intends to close out all its gold hedging contracts and gold loan embedded gold forward sales contracts totalling 2,323,642 oz for an approximate cost of $A842 M," said chief executive Ian Smith.
"Newcrest has pre-purchased 2.3 M oz at an average price of $A831 per oz to enable settlement of these contracts when the proceeds of the entitlement offer are received."
He said the company plans to temporarily leave the longer-dated gold bullion forward sales contracts in place. These would be closed out within 12 months, subject to the gold price, market liquidity and agreeing the terms with hedge counterparts."
"Newcrest has pre-purchased 2.3 M oz at an average price of $A831 per oz to enable settlement of these contracts when the proceeds of the entitlement offer are received."
He said the company plans to temporarily leave the longer-dated gold bullion forward sales contracts in place. These would be closed out within 12 months, subject to the gold price, market liquidity and agreeing the terms with hedge counterparts."
Lundin Mining LMC LUN.to has graduated to NYSE
"VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--Sep 7, 2007 -- Lundin Mining Corporation ("Lundin Mining" or the "Company") (Toronto:LUN.TO - News)(OMX: LUMI)(AMEX:LMC - News) is pleased to announce that its common shares have been approved for listing on the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE"). The Company expects it will begin trading on the NYSE on September 20, 2007 under the symbol "LMC"."
It is very positive development for the company and its Stock price. Company has met strict NYSE listing standards and will enjoy higher trading volumes hopefully. More fund managers and index funds will have to keep exposure to Lundin Mining and anticipation of this move will bring share price higher. Actual buying will provide new institutional shareholder base and will require more analyst following. Once the story will be told the Market's recognition of actual value of the company assets will be more apparent in rising share price.
"Lukas Lundin, chairman of the board of Lundin Mining, commented: "This is a proud moment for our company as it is a reflection of our growth and maturity as a global mining company. We have a large shareholder base in the U.S. and are very pleased to have received this important recognition of being accepted for listing on the New York Stock Exchange. We will continue to pursue our goal of becoming a major global mining house in the base metals sector and believe being on the NYSE will assist us greatly in our accomplishing this goal."
Saturday, September 08, 2007
Gold is moving Up and USD is breaking down? It is just the begining.
Thank you for coming. Gold is moving Up and everything else: USD, DOW, SPY and NASDAQ - down? If you are not surprised - this is your site. We are thinking aloud and are making some money here. Bad spelling and Grammar are downside, but read between the lines: you know all this stuff already - I am just putting it in one place. Consider it is like a Lab and research for IHPV. Invest your time before your money. Help me to learn. Read, study, share and post your thoughts. I am ready to share mine. First take some antidote from Bubble Media Madness: http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/05/three-most-important-things-in.html and welcome into Common Sense adventure.
I was busy lately buying into small names in Junior sector. After first initial excitement of public with Gold break out above 700 and big names like Newmont Mining NEM, Royal Gold RGLD, Silver Wheaton SLW, money will find its way into tiny Junior mining and exploration sector where the biggest reward for highest risk will be. Join me on the wild ride out of USD collapse and into Brand New World of opportunities:
First sharpen your saw and check yourself whether we are on the same page in big picture:
Secrets of trade to stay alive in the Slaughter House:
Few Research Ideas:
Yes, I think in the end rise in Silver price will be even more dramatic then in Gold due to tiny size of its market.
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Subprime slowly but surely is making its way to burst WEB 2.0 Bubble
"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares in some of the biggest U.S. entertainment and media companies fell on Wednesday after Goldman Sachs downgraded its view on the sector to "cautious" from "neutral" due to concerns about the U.S. economic slowdown."
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Mortgage Impact on Google GOOG
From SAI
"Oppenheimer analyst Sandeep Aggarwal has weighed in on the mortgage-impact-on-online-advertising debate with a careful, lengthy analysis. Despite cutting estimates on Google (GOOG), Yahoo (YHOO), and other Internet leaders, Aggarwal remains "cautiously optimistic" about the mortgage situation. As described here, after performing a similar analysis, we remain cautiously pessimistic. The key differences between Aggarwal's analysis and ours are:
*Conclusion. Aggarwal cut estimates on Google, Yahoo, BankRate, and Valueclick based on the mortgage crisis, even though he believes the mortgage impact on these companies will be small. In our experience, once estimates start going down, they usually keep going down. We believe the mortgage crisis will have a ripple effect on other industries, such as broader financial services and retailing. We believe the full effect will take at least a year or two to play out and could be severe enough to cause Google, et al, to miss estimates in Q4. (Aggarwal, obviously, disagrees.)
*Different "financial services as percentage of online ads" estimates. Aggarwal bases his analysis on an IAB estimate that financial services accounted for only 16% of online advertising in 2006. We used a more recent figure of 34%, based on Nielsen impression counts for the month of July. Because financial services ads grew 79% in 2006 (growth that surely continued into the first half of 2007), we believe that Aggarwal's 16% figure is likely too low. Moreover, because the sector's growth rate was so high, even a slowing of growth (rather than a shrinkage) would affect the overall industry."
*Conclusion. Aggarwal cut estimates on Google, Yahoo, BankRate, and Valueclick based on the mortgage crisis, even though he believes the mortgage impact on these companies will be small. In our experience, once estimates start going down, they usually keep going down. We believe the mortgage crisis will have a ripple effect on other industries, such as broader financial services and retailing. We believe the full effect will take at least a year or two to play out and could be severe enough to cause Google, et al, to miss estimates in Q4. (Aggarwal, obviously, disagrees.)
*Different "financial services as percentage of online ads" estimates. Aggarwal bases his analysis on an IAB estimate that financial services accounted for only 16% of online advertising in 2006. We used a more recent figure of 34%, based on Nielsen impression counts for the month of July. Because financial services ads grew 79% in 2006 (growth that surely continued into the first half of 2007), we believe that Aggarwal's 16% figure is likely too low. Moreover, because the sector's growth rate was so high, even a slowing of growth (rather than a shrinkage) would affect the overall industry."
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2007/09/mortgage-crash-.html#more
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Monday, September 03, 2007
The end of US Dollar as the reserve currency of choice.CS
US Dollar has enjoyed happy times for the most part of last century. In its full glory it was driven by bull market in equities from 1980, economy expansion and most importantly by its safe heaven appearance. After collapse of Soviet Union, nobody could challenge the USA super power and its world’s policemen status. Dollars were welcomed everywhere as official tender for transactions, and entire nations kept their wealth in USD denominated assets. All black markets across the world and emerging economies had only one official currency – American Dollars.
Not any more. First dollars fall out of favor in shady circles: try to buy any real estate in Eastern Europe now: dollars are not welcomed. Now government institutions are ready to accept necessity of diversification out of reserve currency of choice. Dollar as any other FIAT currency is not backed by any tangible assets apart from “solid” government promise to pay back. This promise is based on government's ability to create wealth and spend less then its revenue in form of taxes and its ability to manage cash flow: its trade and current account. The US Dollar's fate is based on trust. Trust that government will repay the same value plus interest on its IOU, trust that government inflation figures are correct and you interest payment or yield on US Treasuries will be above real inflation and provide a positive return.
In August we have witnessed that the trust has gone, first in subprime securities, then in rating agencies. All financial system was put on hold because nobody trusts anyone. The academic approach that derivatives are helping spread and reduce the risk have proved to be wrong. The risk was spread to the least prepared, those who trusted the AAA ratings of subprime engineered junk. When even the risk averse sleeping state owned German banks get hurt in this turmoil, what is happening with risk proactive US banks?
Conservative Swiss UBS was quick to shut down hedge fund with mere losses of few hundred million dollars and CEO gets fired within two weeks after that. In the USA, high profile victim so far is CEO of Standard and Poor’s rating agency, which were given high ratings to tranches of CDO being paid by issuers of these junk paper. There will be more victims to come and losses will be exposed, but the first victim is already apparent. The US Dollar is losing its trust and appeal as reserve of last resort. The dollar is no longer preserving value, nor is it providing security as the most common investment instrument of US treasuries.
Dan Norcini reported: “This is the fourth consecutive week in which Treasury holdings by foreign Central Banks in the US Fed Custodial Accounts have fallen. I am continuing to monitor this development as it seems to be something flying under the radar screen of most analysts in spite of the ramifications involved should it continue and become a serious trend”
You can see the consequences of Stagflation and it's victim – US Dollar. After the subprime shock and the housing melt down, the US economy, in real inflation adjusted terms, will be in stagnation in the best case scenario. The government and Mr Bernanke will try to fight this subprime fire adding more gasoline. All these bubbles were created by easy credit and now they will try to save the financial system by pouring more money into it, creating monetary inflation and eroding value of USD and other FIAT currencies. The long term chart of 30-year US Treasury Yield is in its definite break out from multi year Down Trend after Double Bottom Reversal formation. The appetite for subprime currency and assets denominated in it is falling and in order to sell it even AAA rated you need to raise the premium - yield. In addition, more selling of treasuries by China, Japan and other USA creditors will put more pressure on prices and yield will go higher with USD going down.
Now this process will be accelerated with active role of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF). In order to diversify their reserves from the US Dollar wealthiest countries have created SWFs. According to Financial Times, top ten have a 2.4 trillion dollars cash pile. With biggest Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (UAE) standing at 875 billion dollars. Also important to note that China allocated so far “only” 300 billion to its State Foreign Exchange Inv Corp Central Huijin. This comprises less then 25% of its more then 1.3 billion reserves. In the case of UAE, it is 90% of reserves. Now all these money will be deployed in order to protect their value and secure resources for growth in all these countries.
As falling US Dollar price continues, Gold and Silver will be going up driven by economic fundamentals of supply and demand. All raw materials will appreciate in their value. Demand created by rising population and infrastructure development in BRICs countries will push commodities prices higher. Also, these countries are not experiencing any lack of paper dollars losing their value by the hour, further leading them in their willingness to exchange dollars for the real goods. As more paper money begins chasing the same supply of real goods, it will lead to the higher prices.
PGM and base metals industry will be driven by further consolidation. The trick is that you can not create any new supply of commodities, gold or silver in a split second as you can create supply of new credit in the financial system. Mr Bernanke does not even have to use helicopters for flush of liquidity rescuing markets, just political will and PC in Federal Reserve System. The new commodity supply story is completely different – the cycle is long, boring and risky. You have to find deposit (it is rule of thumb that from 1000 drill holes only 10 will lead to economic discovery and only 4-5 will become mines). You have to secure all permits and financing. You have to build the mine with all necessary infrastructure: water, electricity, safety and environmental issues. You can allow from 6 to 10 years depending on type of commodity, technical issues and permitting process. After 20 years of bear market, the commodities industry is feeling the heat right now with lack of qualified personal, drills and diminishing resources base. Majors are not even exploring any more and are cultivating approach of partnership with Junior mining and exploration companies, spreading the risk and running short on time. Any economic deposit with proven time schedule to become a mine is under constant search in the industry.
Once we identified our major trend: the demise of US Dollar and the end of its status as reserve currency of choice, we can formulate investment approach. In order to put this into perspective just consider that all biggest gold mining companies comprising HUI Amex Gold Bug Index have market cap of a little bit over 100 billion dollars now. Compare it to Google’s 161 billion dollars and the 2.4 trillion of Sovereign Wealth Funds seeking safety from collapsing US Dollar. Big names in the sector will benefit first: they are on the radar screens of investment banks fighting for the right to advise SWFs. Newmont Mining (NEM) could benefit from consolidation by being number 2 in the sector with Barrick Gold (ABX) looking for new resources. Silver Wheaton (SLW) has unique business model of 100% silver revenue stream and fixed cost base, giving the exposure to option on rise in price of silver without time decay. Royal Gold (RGLD) price action historically preceds a move in gold price and it has recently developed buy signal. Tanzanian Royalty Exploration (TRE) is backed by gold prophet Jim Sinclair and recently has entered into contract negotiations with a company from the People's Republic of China. Riskier plays which could bring more reward will be Mines Management (MGN) with silver and copper deposit in Montana and Sterling Mines (SRLM.OB) which is going to produce it's first silver from its Sunshine mine by the year end.
The sector is very volatile and provide one of the best entry point right now after recent sell off. You should stick with the best names in business who will not put their reputation on line for a quick buck. Among them is Lundin Mining (LMC), a diversified base metal producer with phenomenal growth. After recent acquisitions, the company with its commodity mix and strong financial position, becomes very attractive target itself and industry consolidation will drive the share price from recent lows. Voting in confidence of its rapidly expanding business Lundin family trust bought 8 million shares in the company during the recent sell off and the share price is fighting its way back now.
The most impressive returns in this major investment trend of the decade will be made in junior mining and exploration companies. Money will infiltrate into this tiny sector from the industry majors rushing to secure promising projects for development of their resource base. Once the dust will settles and they will understand that demand is not affected by US stagnation or even recession and that financing is available, they will go shopping. The sector is very risky and demands a good industry network and discipline. But once you have found your best shots they will pay off handsomely. Investment approach, risk management and further research ideas can be found on my website.
Sunday, September 02, 2007
USD Subprime currency 30-year Yield Break out of Down Trend

Consider previous post about declining holdings of US Treasuries and you will see the consequences for Stagflation victim - USD. Long term chart of 30-year US Treasury Yield is in definite break out from multi year Down Trend after Double Bottom Reversal formation. Appetite for subprime currency and assets denominated in it is falling and in order to sell this Junk even AAA rated you need to raise premium - yield. More selling of treasuries by China, Japan and other USA creditors will put more pressure on prices and yield will go higher with USD going down. Gold, Silver and commodities will fly.
Saturday, September 01, 2007
Foreign Central Bank Treasury Holdings In US Fed Custodial Accounts Continue To Fall
Author: Dan Norcini
Dear CIGAs,
This is the fourth consecutive week in which Treasury holdings by foreign Central Banks in the US Fed Custodial Accounts have fallen. I am continuing to monitor this development as it seems to be something flying under the radar screen of most analysts in spite of the ramifications involved should it continue and become a serious trend.
Also, take a look at the cost of three month money again. After a short rebound it has resumed falling.
Your pal,Dan
http://jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/5124_Charts_for_8-30-2007.pdf
Dear CIGAs,
This is the fourth consecutive week in which Treasury holdings by foreign Central Banks in the US Fed Custodial Accounts have fallen. I am continuing to monitor this development as it seems to be something flying under the radar screen of most analysts in spite of the ramifications involved should it continue and become a serious trend.
Also, take a look at the cost of three month money again. After a short rebound it has resumed falling.
Your pal,Dan
http://jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/5124_Charts_for_8-30-2007.pdf
Friday, August 31, 2007
Google GOOG and coming Crisis.
From Economist:
"It is rare for a company to dominate its industry while claiming not to be motivated by money. Google does. But it has yet to face a crisis"
"If it goes wrong, how? Beyond its attempts to expand into new markets, the big question is how Google will respond if its stunning success is interrupted. “It's axiomatic that companies eventually have crises,” says Mr Schmidt. And history suggests that “tech companies that are dominant have trouble from within, not from competitors.” In Google's case, he says, “I worry about the scaling of the company.” Google has been hiring “Nooglers” (new Googlers) at a breathtaking rate. In June 2004 it had 2,292 staff; this June the number had reached 13,786"
"Yet for some on the inside, it can look different. One former executive, now suing Google over her treatment, says that the firm's personnel department is “collapsing” and that “absolute chaos” reigns"
"Another Xoogler, who held a senior position, says that by trying to create a “Utopia” of untrammelled creativity, Google ended up with “dystopia”. As is its wont, Google has composed a rigorous algorithmic approach to hiring, based on grade-point averages, college rankings and endless logic puzzles on whiteboards. This “genetic engineering of their workforce,” he says, means that “everybody there is a rocket scientist, so everybody is also insecure” and the back-stabbing and politics are reminiscent of an average university's English department.
Then there is the question of what all these people are supposed to do. “We kind of like the chaos,” says Laszlo Bock, the personnel boss. “Creativity comes out of people bumping into each other and not knowing where to go.” The most famous expression of this is the “20% time”. In theory, all Googlers, down to receptionists, can spend one-fifth of their time exploring any new idea. Good stuff has indeed come out of this, including Google News, Gmail, and even those commuter shuttles and their Wi-Fi systems. But it is not clear that the company as a whole is more innovative as a result, as it claims. It still has only one proven revenue source and most big innovations, such as YouTube, Google Earth and the productivity applications, have come through acquisitions. (S)
In practice, the 20% time works out to be 120% time, says another Xoogler, “since nobody really gets around to those projects for all their other work.” The chances of ideas being executed, he adds, “are basically zero.” What happens to the many Googlers whose ideas are rejected? Once their share options are fully vested they consider leaving. The same phenomenon changed Microsoft in the 1980s, when allegedly T-shirts popped up saying FYIFV (“F**k you, I'm fully vested”). Already some are going to even “cooler” start-ups, such as Facebook or Twitter.
This week George Reyes, Google's finance chief, said he would retire. At 53, he is a multi-millionaire. Mr Reyes has maintained the company's policy of not providing guidance to Wall Street on future earnings, although his comments on growth prospects have moved its share price."
"It is rare for a company to dominate its industry while claiming not to be motivated by money. Google does. But it has yet to face a crisis"
"If it goes wrong, how? Beyond its attempts to expand into new markets, the big question is how Google will respond if its stunning success is interrupted. “It's axiomatic that companies eventually have crises,” says Mr Schmidt. And history suggests that “tech companies that are dominant have trouble from within, not from competitors.” In Google's case, he says, “I worry about the scaling of the company.” Google has been hiring “Nooglers” (new Googlers) at a breathtaking rate. In June 2004 it had 2,292 staff; this June the number had reached 13,786"
"Yet for some on the inside, it can look different. One former executive, now suing Google over her treatment, says that the firm's personnel department is “collapsing” and that “absolute chaos” reigns"
"Another Xoogler, who held a senior position, says that by trying to create a “Utopia” of untrammelled creativity, Google ended up with “dystopia”. As is its wont, Google has composed a rigorous algorithmic approach to hiring, based on grade-point averages, college rankings and endless logic puzzles on whiteboards. This “genetic engineering of their workforce,” he says, means that “everybody there is a rocket scientist, so everybody is also insecure” and the back-stabbing and politics are reminiscent of an average university's English department.
Then there is the question of what all these people are supposed to do. “We kind of like the chaos,” says Laszlo Bock, the personnel boss. “Creativity comes out of people bumping into each other and not knowing where to go.” The most famous expression of this is the “20% time”. In theory, all Googlers, down to receptionists, can spend one-fifth of their time exploring any new idea. Good stuff has indeed come out of this, including Google News, Gmail, and even those commuter shuttles and their Wi-Fi systems. But it is not clear that the company as a whole is more innovative as a result, as it claims. It still has only one proven revenue source and most big innovations, such as YouTube, Google Earth and the productivity applications, have come through acquisitions. (S)
In practice, the 20% time works out to be 120% time, says another Xoogler, “since nobody really gets around to those projects for all their other work.” The chances of ideas being executed, he adds, “are basically zero.” What happens to the many Googlers whose ideas are rejected? Once their share options are fully vested they consider leaving. The same phenomenon changed Microsoft in the 1980s, when allegedly T-shirts popped up saying FYIFV (“F**k you, I'm fully vested”). Already some are going to even “cooler” start-ups, such as Facebook or Twitter.
This week George Reyes, Google's finance chief, said he would retire. At 53, he is a multi-millionaire. Mr Reyes has maintained the company's policy of not providing guidance to Wall Street on future earnings, although his comments on growth prospects have moved its share price."
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Google GOOG WEB 2.0 Bubble is going to burst with Subprime mess.
"After listening to the Bankrate conference call, our conviction is increasing that the mortgage mess is the canary in the coalmine for a cyclical bust in online advertising"
http://www.alleyinsider.com/
We believe most analysts are severely underestimating the impact the mortgage collapse could have on online advertising spending.
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2007/08/why-mortgage-co.html
Add these two to Slowing Growth in Q2 2007:
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/08/george-reyes-to-retire-as-google-cfo.html
http://www.alleyinsider.com/
We believe most analysts are severely underestimating the impact the mortgage collapse could have on online advertising spending.
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2007/08/why-mortgage-co.html
Add these two to Slowing Growth in Q2 2007:
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/08/george-reyes-to-retire-as-google-cfo.html
CEO of Lundin Mining LUN.TO LMC Karl-Axel Waplan, told Reuters the base metals producer sees buying opportunities.
"Elsewhere, the chief executive of Lundin Mining (LUN.TO: Quote, Profile, Research), Karl-Axel Waplan, told Reuters the base metals producer sees buying opportunities in the wake of recent market turmoil, but declined to give specifics."
Rio Raises $40 Billion in Loans for Alcan Purchase
Miners still can get money for expansion. It is very positive news for all sector. Once the dust will settle expect new wave of consolidation. Strong, agressive companies with a lot of potential will be the target. I think now you recognise Lundin Mining profile.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=awzmAPVd3ick&refer=bond
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=awzmAPVd3ick&refer=bond
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC shareholder buys eight million shares
Stock has retested today recents Lows and is ready for Value Play.
Lundin Mining shareholder buys eight million shares
2007-08-28 14:48 ET - News Release
Mr. Aksel Azrac of Ellegrove reports
Ellegrove Capital Ltd., a Barbados resident company, through its joint actors, has acquired eight million common shares of Lundin Mining Corp.
As a result of this acquisition, Ellegrove together with its joint actors, hold as at the date hereof, a total of 59,614,854 common shares which total holdings represent approximately 15.2 per cent of the issued and outstanding shares of Lundin Mining.
Ellegrove and its joint actors acquired the securities of Lundin Mining for investment purposes only and not for the purpose of influencing control or direction over Lundin Mining. Ellegrove and its joint actors will, however, review its holdings in Lundin Mining from time to time and may increase or decrease its position as future circumstances dictate.
Ellegrove is owned by a trust whose settlor is the estate of Adolf H. Lundin.
They were buying almost every single day in this downturn:
http://www.canadianinsider.ca/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=lun
Lundin Mining shareholder buys eight million shares
2007-08-28 14:48 ET - News Release
Mr. Aksel Azrac of Ellegrove reports
Ellegrove Capital Ltd., a Barbados resident company, through its joint actors, has acquired eight million common shares of Lundin Mining Corp.
As a result of this acquisition, Ellegrove together with its joint actors, hold as at the date hereof, a total of 59,614,854 common shares which total holdings represent approximately 15.2 per cent of the issued and outstanding shares of Lundin Mining.
Ellegrove and its joint actors acquired the securities of Lundin Mining for investment purposes only and not for the purpose of influencing control or direction over Lundin Mining. Ellegrove and its joint actors will, however, review its holdings in Lundin Mining from time to time and may increase or decrease its position as future circumstances dictate.
Ellegrove is owned by a trust whose settlor is the estate of Adolf H. Lundin.
They were buying almost every single day in this downturn:
http://www.canadianinsider.ca/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=lun
George Reyes To Retire As Google CFO
Ooops, something happening?! Normally if CFO is "retiring" new one will be already found, what is really going on?
"MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG - News) announced today that George Reyes has informed the company of his intention to retire as Chief Financial Officer. Reyes indicated that he will remain to assist in the search for a new CFO and to assure an orderly transition, which Google expects will occur by the end of the year."
Do I smell ENRON here? Or maybe Mr Reyes invested in ABCP couple of Google Billions of cash?
In any case it is not positive sign for the company experiencing pressure of "Law of Big Numbers" and its inability to sustain implyed growth rate.
There is never one cockroach in the closet...it is only beginning.
There is never one cockroach in the closet...it is only beginning.
Nemont Mining NEM Buy out Rumor is Lundin Mining Next LUN.to LMC?
My calls on NEM are flying today:
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/08/newmont-mining-nem-at-buy.html
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/08/royal-gold-rgld-at-buy.html
If buy out is Real it will ignite the whole sector.
Lundin Mining could be Next:
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/08/lundin-mining-lunto-lmc-should-benefit.html
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/08/newmont-mining-nem-at-buy.html
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/08/royal-gold-rgld-at-buy.html
If buy out is Real it will ignite the whole sector.
Lundin Mining could be Next:
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/08/lundin-mining-lunto-lmc-should-benefit.html
Google and Subprime crunch - it is just the begining.
Google's slowing growth and falling earnings with unsustainable valuation at recent price is just the beginning of fundamentals deterioration in the coming recession. advertisement budgets will be cut first when companies will brace themselves for tough economic conditions.
"Sixteen per cent of all online advertising comes from financial services companies, making it the second biggest source of advertising behind the retailing sector, said Sandeep Aggarwal, an internet analyst at Oppenheimer.
Companies that lent to subprime borrowers relied heavily on the internet to attract customers, concentrating the effect of the meltdown, said Rick Sizemore, an analyst at Multimedia Intelligence.
According to data from Nielsen/NetRatings, mortgage lenders Countrywide and Low Rate Source were two of the 10 biggest online advertisers in the US in July."
Companies that lent to subprime borrowers relied heavily on the internet to attract customers, concentrating the effect of the meltdown, said Rick Sizemore, an analyst at Multimedia Intelligence.
According to data from Nielsen/NetRatings, mortgage lenders Countrywide and Low Rate Source were two of the 10 biggest online advertisers in the US in July."
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Dubai gold sales rise 33% in July despite high prices
Who is buying, who is selling...why they are not buying ABCP instead of gold?
http://www.gulf-news.com/business/Commodities/10149257.html
http://www.gulf-news.com/business/Commodities/10149257.html
How Gold and Silver stocks will behave in new Bear Leg down in Nasdaq?
Just look at this chart: after initial sell off Goldies were quick on recovery path and outpaced Nasdaq during correction and following rebound. All it happen on the face of continuous Fed rate cuts:
This old post is still valid:
Silver Seven Juniors from Summer 2006 and few research ideas.
This is Silver Seven from 1 year ago June 2006, just before the move up. For your home work few ideas at fire sell prices: Mines Management MGN financing closed, repermitting the mine in Montana; Avino Gold and Silver Mines ASM.v new high grade drilling results; Continium Resources CNU.v continuing progress with Fortuna mines and its own drilling programme in Mexico; Silverstone Resources SST.v new Silver Wheaton SLW in the making, after financing, below Lundin Mining deal price limit; Sterling Mines SRLM.ob financing closed, obtaining Canada listing and on the road to production this year; Minera Andes MAI.v close to production with new discovery in Los Azules in the making; Copper Fox Metals CUU.v below financing, funds available to make FS; Baja Mining BAJ.to close to production Copper Mexico story; Mantle Resources MTS.v, Sunridge Gold SGC.v, Sanu Resources SNU.v Lundin Mining strategic investments, all three below recent financing; Rainy River RR.v recent discovery, below financing. Before wasting your time (and money) consider for yourself:
1. Is it end of the world?
2. Subprime crises is building confidence in US based paper assets?
3. China needs its 1.3 trillion in USD to pave the new roads and to fire power plants?
If your answer Yes to at least one of the above, sorry for your time.
Silver Seven Juniors Chart is at Buy
It is always dark before the dawn. Nobody believes in Gold and silver any more. All weak hands and those reckless to be on margin are wiped out. All charts "are broken" and new bear market in goldies is pronounced. If you are first time here - welcome to the club: we are hitting Major bottom in goldies and silver juniors, only those who believe in fundamentals and are not squeezed by margin left - it is solid foundation for new Bull Leg Up. Look for those who just recently made financing and are trading below it: they have resources to deliver results. Next Bull Leg will be acquisition driven and juniors with solid management, properties of merit and sufficient cash will benefit most. If FED is so scared that came to save the market after recent modest plunge in general markets the financial system is rotted to the core. Look at all those European, Australian and Chinese subprime victims of the latest and biggest export from USA: IOU with AAA rating backed by "Liars loans". Who would believe in any rating now? Confidence in USD based assets and USD itself is damaged worldwide. Massive exodus from all that paper assets will bring USD down and part of all those money will find its way into gold, silver and commodities story. Just a fraction of high risk funds availible will ignite junior mining sector. Expect a lot of volatility, retest of recent lows and very explosive move up. For refference I will provide chart from year ago.Majors has reduced exploration budgets: "Juniors will explore for us"
In the mineral world now driven by aquisitions, there is no time for exploration effort, Juniors with the best properties will be winners in the next leg of Bull Market in things:
http://www.falconbridge.com/documents/presentations/Exploration_Strategies_Apr06.pdf
http://www.falconbridge.com/documents/presentations/Exploration_Strategies_Apr06.pdf
Junior mining companies and World Exploration Trends
With a record exploration budgets recent prices of exploration companies are very attractive Entry point:
http://www.metalseconomics.com/catalog/pages/pdac2007.pdf
http://www.metalseconomics.com/catalog/pages/pdac2007.pdf
Friday, August 24, 2007
Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC should benefit from "Fly to Quality" or even become an Aquisition Target.
Known for his own aggressive strategy could Mr Lukas Lundin and his Lundin Mining company (LMC, LUN.to) become a pray in recent consolidation game? This question is not so rhetoric in the industry after turmoil in the market. Recent sell off shaved out 26% or more then 1 billion in Lundin Mining market cap just in a matter of few weeks (all amounts are in US dollars). With solid cash position, diversified asset base with primary producing mines in stable Europe and explosive growth rate Company is becoming very attractive acquisition target. According to conversation with VP and CEO of the company MR Andres Haker Lundin Mining does not have any exposure to Assets Backed Commercial Paper, as of latest reported date Company has 390 million dollars invested in short term investments with majority outside of Canada and all these investments are liquid and Company has not experienced any problems with their withdrawals. After recent acquisitions of Tenke Mining and Rio Narcea Lundin Mining became emerging mid-tier producer with Zinc, Copper, Lead and Nickel portfolio with majority of mines in stable Europe. This asset portfolio is spiced with Silver, 25% in one of biggest in the world developing Copper and Cobalt mine in Congo and 49% in one of the biggest zinc deposits Ozernoe in Russia. Add to the basket investments in few promising juniors and record earnings last quoter. The Company according to Reuters data has ultra conservative Long Term Debt to Equity ratio at 0.02 vs 0.38 in the industry and 0.61 in S&P 500, which is a prise in recent market conditions. Just raising debt to industry's level could fuel LBO of the company. Financial strength of the company measured in Quick ratio is almost double of industry level at 2.87. At yesterday closing quote of $10.81 Lundin Mining is trading at P/E=8.55 vs industry's 12.14 and 19.52 of S&P 500. Its growth after recent acquisitions is really impressive: 183.3% in sales and 303.3% in earnings! Business model is supported by healthy Gross Margin of 67.3% and Operating Margin of 44.1%. It is 52% and 26% above industry averages respectively. Lundin Mining growth story with solid financial foundation should benefit in the case of "fly to quality". With shifting demand to China, India and other developing economies its customers are not exposed to credit subprime collapse, falling US Dollar will support commodities boom according to recent BHP Billiton report. Smart money are still waiting on the side according to industry insiders in Canada. Should they find the full Lundin Mining story company will benefit enormously. On the other hand with recent stockpile of cash mostly unaffected by exposure to commercial paper industry majors will start their move in the consolidation game once the dust will settle. Just consider Freeport-MacMoRan Copper and Gold (FCX) with 2.o billion cash position. FCX is already holding majority position in Tenke Fungurume Copper/Cobalt deposit in Congo, which is promising to become one of the biggest mines in the world starting operations in 2008. Lundin Mining with Lundin family holding under 20% will become very attractive target. Just recently Lundin Trust has increased his position by 1 million shares at Cad 13.2. With insiders buying and industry spotlight company is becoming one of the interesting commodity play for institutional and retail investors. Desjardins' take over price of CAD 25.00 for Lundin Mining based on Spring aquisitions value looks like adream now, but time is flying fast and such bargains a not forever.
Lundin Mining Does NOT Have Any Exposure to Asset Backed Commercial Paper: Cash position is Solid.
After all scare with Canada's Coventry fall out and few miners caught with illiquid assets in ABCP including majors like Cameco, shareholders of Lundin mining will be relieved to know that company has a solid cash position.
Resource Investor reports: "Several Canadian miners with exposure to the asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) market could get hit hard if banks and trusts prove unable to pay up despite the flood of liquidity and credit easing provided by central banks around the world. The latest - and one of the largest - firms to announce its exposure is Cameco Corp. [NYSE:CCJ; TSX:CCO], which said yesterday it has about C$120 million of its C$332 million “portfolio”, or nearly two fifths of the total, invested in the short-term notes."
According to conversation with Andres Haker VP and CFO this morning Lunding mining does not have any exposure to Assets Backed Commercial Paper, as of latest reported date Company has 390 million dollars invested in short term investments with majority outside of Canada and all these investments are liquid and Company has not experienced any problems with their withdrawals. I have suggested that Press Release will be very helpful in this situation and Mr Haker assured that they will look into this matter again.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Remember: Investing is a process of giving away your money to the Stranger hoping that he is more clever then you
Main investment thesis and few ideas for Home work:
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/07/end-of-empire-and-usd-pgm-as-store-of.html
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/07/end-of-empire-and-usd-pgm-as-store-of.html
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Gold - who knows it better than people producing it from Mud?
Gold dehedging hits record high in 2nd quarter: GFMS
Wed 22 Aug 2007, 5:51 GMT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold dehedging hit a new high in the second quarter of 2007, with 5.2 million ounces (161 tonnes) removed from producers' hedge books compared with the first quarter, a quarterly study by precious metals consultant GFMS Ltd. released on Tuesday said.
The study, compiled by GFMS on behalf of Societe Generale, said that the outright elimination of two substantial hedge books, Newmont Mining and Lihir, led the reduction for the quarter. The companies reduced nearly 3.5 million ounces, accounting for nearly half of the total decline among all forward corporate gold sales contracts, GFMS said.
In recent years, mining companies have increasingly reduced hedges to take advantage of the rising bullion prices.
Spot gold was quoted at around $657 an ounce on Tuesday, compared with its 26-year high of $730 set in May 2006.
Total outstanding producer hedge positions was now 34.2 million ounces (1,064 tonnes) in delta-adjusted terms at the end of the second quarter, GFMS said.
Wed 22 Aug 2007, 5:51 GMT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold dehedging hit a new high in the second quarter of 2007, with 5.2 million ounces (161 tonnes) removed from producers' hedge books compared with the first quarter, a quarterly study by precious metals consultant GFMS Ltd. released on Tuesday said.
The study, compiled by GFMS on behalf of Societe Generale, said that the outright elimination of two substantial hedge books, Newmont Mining and Lihir, led the reduction for the quarter. The companies reduced nearly 3.5 million ounces, accounting for nearly half of the total decline among all forward corporate gold sales contracts, GFMS said.
In recent years, mining companies have increasingly reduced hedges to take advantage of the rising bullion prices.
Spot gold was quoted at around $657 an ounce on Tuesday, compared with its 26-year high of $730 set in May 2006.
Total outstanding producer hedge positions was now 34.2 million ounces (1,064 tonnes) in delta-adjusted terms at the end of the second quarter, GFMS said.
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Subprime collapse of credit markets and its application to Gold, Silver and Commodities.CS
Imaging that you have 50 million CAD dollars in cash and blood bath in Junior mining stocks like we had last Thursday. Is it bad for you when "solid names" are selling with 30% off in one day? What has changed from Spring when the same guys were making private placements and YOU can not get it?! I had first hand experience when by the end of the day of financing announcement it was completely sold out to investors. Now the same stocks are selling below PP levels. Almost all juniors completed private placements in record numbers this spring using the opportunity of free flowing money. Now they are busy drilling and news of new discoveries and confirmation of resources are starting to come into the market and stocks are still going down? So you must be very happy with your 50 million - you can accumulate on fire sale the same stocks you have dreamed about last spring with 40-50% discount. Now imaging that you have not 50 million but 1.5 trillion like China. With this amount you will not be able to play in tiny juniors market but look no further then Lunding mining: emerging mid tier producer with Zinc, Copper, Lead and Nickel portfolio with majority of mines in stable Europe and spiced with Silver, 25% in one of biggest in the world developing Copper and Cobalt mine in Congo and 49% in one of the biggest zinc deposits Ozernoe in Russia. Add to the basket investments in few promising juniors and record earning last quoter. And this company now could be bought at P/E=7.9 and forward P/E=6.82? I would dare to say that even if tomorrow China stock market will BE closed completely, its economy will still need commodities for its growth. So recent situation with sell off in Real Things, metals, gold and silver is nothing more than dream for newly appointed managers of SAFE investment agency in China. With temporary bounce in USD triggered by margins calls on loans in USD they can start their duty of diversification from USD into Gold, Silver and commodities needed for their explosive growth. I think now nobody is talking about FED rate hike any more. Financial economy which is now constitute almost all economy in USA is in deep trouble due to sub prime collapse in credit markets, recent shake out in stock markets will deepen consumers wounds already hurt buy housing melt down and its ability to spend will deteriorate further. If you look at the history in 1998 with LTCM bail out we are facing not one but few Fed rate cuts in a row just in order to keep things together in the financial markets. With real inflation still going up real rate will be deep in negative territory like in 2002 and it will propel prices of metals, gold and silver up into a new bull leg. When central banks of Spain and Switzerland were busy selling gold it went no further then to Saudis. India, China and Middle East demand for gold is up in 2nd Q 2007 as high as 30% in Saudi Arabia case. So if you are not squeezed on margin and preserved your capital now it is time to shop for good names with solid management and resources which will be needed always even if USA will be in recession and China will close its stock market. I must add that when insiders are buying and you can get a better deal than their purchase price it is becoming even more appealing. Lundin family just recently in August bought one more million shares in Lunding mining at CAD 13.2, Sterling mining, Mines management, Copper fox metals, Mantle resources are trading below last private placements, Silver wheaton and Tanzanian Gold Royalty companies have taken the hit as well. They are effectively call options on silver and gold price respectively without time decay. New wave of consolidation in the sector will ignite the upside move and these sale prices will not be for long time.
I need to repost One More Time Very Important piece from May
To those who are listening: capital preservation is N1 priority now. CS
I am never saying SELL to my bullish calls: it is always up to you: listen to me, do your thinking and establish position and then sell when it is time. Time is different for everyone, but today I will call for Capital Preservation. Take profit and go to cash at least 30% within next week. Do not rush and destroy your markets, but if decided act boldly and timely and with limits, spreading your orders. Individual charts will be published later. Nothing has changed, but do not forget that we are not marring our stocks - they are the way to create positive energy in the form of capital available for new creations. I should share my positions at the moment for more transparent play: No technology stocks, no big names, puts on GOOG, QQQQ, builders, real estate ETF, first time unleveraged and has taken profit on 30% on my biggest winning position. Reason: I feel definitely uncomfortable with general markets and would like to be in different mode: not trying to get last 20-30% on run up, but to buy value when everybody will be in panic. My value is in commodities: markets are very nervous and any drop back in China because of apparent disaster in USA and its economy could send shock waves across ALL ASSET CLASSES. Downside: Gold and Silver on the wedge of break out, but I think this time it will be VERY Political, just look at gold sales by Central banks this spring. More shake out will come. Time to build cash and build new positions on every desperate sell offs. Check your positions one by one. Fundamentals, management, TA. Will you buy it now again? If all intact: keep. If you are not sure sell 30%. Take profit on those with big run. Kill leverage. We are in the Great Bull market and survive in it. If I am wrong and our juniors will be unshaken we will enjoy further run and build new positions in places where nobody is going, no hype and pump - just value. Remember my very expensive lessons: if you feel too confident, check your cash position - Sell Off is coming. The best strategy so far is to buy when nobody wants and hold if value unchanged or going higher with metal prices and new exploration results. Never go for 50%, thousand things could go wrong - you need very big cushion of Potential value in order that its Realisation by trustworthy team will protect you from downside. What is the difference with juniors? Commodities will be needed - no questions here, if you have resources in the ground which are economical and confirmed by reputation of the Team and Industry Insiders positions - you have value in any market. Nowadays this value is exceptional and you must be prepared for the Next Big Run. Take profit where maybe 100% profit left and go where your next 500% could be. If you can not find it at the moment read some books and think, think, think with capital intact new ideas will come...
I am never saying SELL to my bullish calls: it is always up to you: listen to me, do your thinking and establish position and then sell when it is time. Time is different for everyone, but today I will call for Capital Preservation. Take profit and go to cash at least 30% within next week. Do not rush and destroy your markets, but if decided act boldly and timely and with limits, spreading your orders. Individual charts will be published later. Nothing has changed, but do not forget that we are not marring our stocks - they are the way to create positive energy in the form of capital available for new creations. I should share my positions at the moment for more transparent play: No technology stocks, no big names, puts on GOOG, QQQQ, builders, real estate ETF, first time unleveraged and has taken profit on 30% on my biggest winning position. Reason: I feel definitely uncomfortable with general markets and would like to be in different mode: not trying to get last 20-30% on run up, but to buy value when everybody will be in panic. My value is in commodities: markets are very nervous and any drop back in China because of apparent disaster in USA and its economy could send shock waves across ALL ASSET CLASSES. Downside: Gold and Silver on the wedge of break out, but I think this time it will be VERY Political, just look at gold sales by Central banks this spring. More shake out will come. Time to build cash and build new positions on every desperate sell offs. Check your positions one by one. Fundamentals, management, TA. Will you buy it now again? If all intact: keep. If you are not sure sell 30%. Take profit on those with big run. Kill leverage. We are in the Great Bull market and survive in it. If I am wrong and our juniors will be unshaken we will enjoy further run and build new positions in places where nobody is going, no hype and pump - just value. Remember my very expensive lessons: if you feel too confident, check your cash position - Sell Off is coming. The best strategy so far is to buy when nobody wants and hold if value unchanged or going higher with metal prices and new exploration results. Never go for 50%, thousand things could go wrong - you need very big cushion of Potential value in order that its Realisation by trustworthy team will protect you from downside. What is the difference with juniors? Commodities will be needed - no questions here, if you have resources in the ground which are economical and confirmed by reputation of the Team and Industry Insiders positions - you have value in any market. Nowadays this value is exceptional and you must be prepared for the Next Big Run. Take profit where maybe 100% profit left and go where your next 500% could be. If you can not find it at the moment read some books and think, think, think with capital intact new ideas will come...
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Lundin family bought 1 million shares of Lundin mining LUN.to more
According to insiders report Lundin family has bought via family Trust another 1 million shares at CAD 13.2 in Lundin mining on August 8th, 2007. So now we have some more credibility to my Buy issued few days ago. This unique company is combining assets all over the world in order to become one of the major players in commodity boom. This boom is far from over and now is the time to accumulate your favorite stocks of Juniors hit by waves of redemption's from hedge funds. First they are selling where the profit is and with low liquidity stocks are becoming just bargains.
http://canadianinsider.ca/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=lun
Thursday, August 09, 2007
Lundin Mining LUN.to time to BUY again
Daily chart is at Buy for Lundin Mining stock is right at the support level and today very strong candle is developing:
Gold is in very bullish CUP and HADLE formation
I am totally agree with following chart from JIM SINCLARE web site.
With mounting Subprime meltdown and threat from China to unload their USD bonds holdings USD has a very bleak future and Gold and Silver will make their way to defenite break out:
In July Swiss and Spanish central banks were selling gold and still they can not break the chart. It is battle without rules and stay safe without margin, accumulate good juniors which are on garage sale now, keep watching SubPrime: today French BNP is in trouble...they "can not price 3 of their funds"
Saturday, August 04, 2007
Google GOOG is a barometer of WEB Bubble 2.0
Formula is simple but powerfull: housing bubble/subprime dry out of credit avalible and liquidity; consumers are hurt; spending power is going down (housing, cars, big ticket items, consumer electronics); business revenue is going down - first cut is advertising; GOOGLE growth is going down, it already apparent fact for two Qs in 2007; crowd will be late as usual as it happened with subprime; overextended on margins positions will collapse forcing selling.
Some people are telling that correction is over - not until GOOGLE will correct, as it was sad here before 300.00 range is still rich valuation in recession.
Where to be? Not in financial economy but in real things, fundamentals of which are driven by law supply and demand and powerful rising of the new world.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
The business is a dynamo. The stock is a pipe dream, says Fortune's Geoff Colvin
We have some back up in our Common Sense squad: not everything is lost in insanity so far:
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/08/06/100141308/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/08/06/100141308/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
Once the crowd will realise that they are living on "borrowed future" which will never come hang over will be ugly.
Friday, July 20, 2007
Google Exec to Pay $700,000 in SEC Case
Why do we need enemies if we have such "freinds":
"SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Google Inc.'s top in-house lawyer, David Drummond, has agreed to pay $700,000 to settle a Securities and Exchange Commission complaint alleging he helped mislead investors while overseeing the finances of his previous employer, SmartForce."..."The SEC had alleged Drummond helped SmartForce exaggerate its revenue by $113.6 million and its profit by $127 million during a 3 1/2-year period ending in mid-2002. At the time, Drummond was SmartForce's chief financial officer."
"SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Google Inc.'s top in-house lawyer, David Drummond, has agreed to pay $700,000 to settle a Securities and Exchange Commission complaint alleging he helped mislead investors while overseeing the finances of his previous employer, SmartForce."..."The SEC had alleged Drummond helped SmartForce exaggerate its revenue by $113.6 million and its profit by $127 million during a 3 1/2-year period ending in mid-2002. At the time, Drummond was SmartForce's chief financial officer."
Google GOOG Earnings and Growth are Falling further

The most important ring bell for all Google shareholders should be falling by 12% margin from almost constant before 33% to 29% of revenue. With increase in revenue of 58% Y/Y Google demonstrated falling growth rate of -25% Y/Y. Google network growth is falling even more faster by -38% Y/Y due to heating up competition. Net Income actually fall from 1billion to 0.9 billion comparing to the 1st q 2007. Total cost and Expenses are growing 116% faster then revenue growth rate Q/Q. Sales per head is down by -6%. With all this deteriorating fundamentals investors still were ready to pay last Thursday 548.59 which brings Google to valuation of P/S=12.9, P/E=47, P/FCF=74. Even if Google could justify P/FCF=40 with slowing growth and falling margin share price has to have a dive into 300.00 territory. The problem here could be that on the way down support of the company could be devastated by losses and Google could become victim of its own success. Licencing and other revenue is still around 1% of total revenue and falling in absolute figures. All risks of one trick pony related to Search business where competitors literally one click away remains. This results are second in line with deteriorating fundamentals after slowing growth and earnings trends in Q1 2007 discussed here. How long could management be allowed to run the company based not on fundamentals but on "competitive landscape" will depend on its shareholders. This analyses is based on Google own published report.
Thursday, July 19, 2007
Google GOOG to trade below USD450.00 tomorrow
Finally crowd will noticed that growth is slowing and company can not meet overinflated expectations. Will it survive its own success? More will be posted tomorrow last 1Q 2007 figures are here: http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/07/google-goog-earnings-growth-rate-is.html
"Google (GOOG - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) shares were dropping sharply late Thursday after the Net giant shocked Wall Street with a second-quarter earnings shortfall"
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
End of Empire and USD - PGM as store of Ultimate Value, Rising of New Powers and Leap Frog into consumption of basic Necessities.
OK, we have the situation as we have discussed many times before: US Dollar is a chosen Victim of all ill managed things imaginable in Shrinking Empire. How can we put this knowledge into work: I think it is still very up to date piece to sharpen your saw:
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/05/three-most-important-things-in.html
P.S. Remember: Investing is a process of giving away your money to the Stranger hoping that he is more clever then you.
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/07/gold-and-metals-credit-suisse-issued.html
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/05/three-most-important-things-in.html
P.S. Remember: Investing is a process of giving away your money to the Stranger hoping that he is more clever then you.
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/07/gold-and-metals-credit-suisse-issued.html
US Dollar SUBPRIME CURRENCY: what all it means and how to Play IT
How to hedge your assets against US Dollar USD decline and Subprime story development:
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/search?q=USD
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/search?q=USD
Lundin Mining LUN.to CAD25.00 as Take Over Target
Lots of upside in mining takeouts
Leonard Zehr, July 17, 2007 at 10:32 AM EDT
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Getting asked “what’s a company worth on a takeout?,” especially in the consolidating mining sector, has prompted analysts at Desjardins Securities to apply the valuation metrics of the Rio Tinto PLC bid for Alcan Inc. as an exercise to other target prices in the sector.To recap, Rio’s bid of $101 (U.S.) a share values Alcan at 16.4 times and 16.7 times estimated per-share profits in 2007 and 2008, and at 10.5 times and 10.3 times estimated per-share cash flow in 2007 and 2008. In addition, the bid represents 3.2 times Alcan’s existing book value.Desjardins works out Teck Cominco Ltd.’s ultimate takeout value to be in the range of $60-to-$70 (Canadian) a share, versus a recent TSX price of $52. And even though it has voting and non-voting stock, the brokerage doubts the capital structure “will be an effective long-term deterrent,” if an international giant decides to take a run at Teck.HudBay Minerals Inc., trading around $28, gets a potential takeout range of $45-to-$50 a share that Desjardins calls “quite exciting.”Cameco Corp. delivers a wide takeout range of $30-to-$60 a share, compared with its current TSX price of around $50.Thompson Creek Metals Co., a pure molybdenum play, has a takeout value of $25-to-$30 a share, Desjardins figures, compared with its nearly $22 TSX price.Sherritt International Corp. warrants a takeout in the mid-$20 a share range, notwithstanding its flagship assets are in Cuba, compared with a nearly $17 TSX price.Lundin Mining Corp., which prides itself as an acquirer, would be worth in the $25 a share range, if things turned around, up from its nearly $15 TSX price.Quadra Mining Ltd., also on the acquisition trail, gets a range of $25-to-$30 a share from Desjardins, well above its nearly $17 TSX price.And running against the trend is FNX Mining Co. It warrants a takeout range of $25-to-$30 a share, which is below its $34 price on the TSX.
Google GOOG earnings: growth rate is likely to slow further

Daily Reach traffic is in clear downtrend from late 2006. YouTube is still in early days of monetising game, valuations will be very hard to justify with slowing growth rate, increasing CAPEX and premium paid for acquisitions.
Monday, July 16, 2007
Ernst & Young Finds Private Equity Houses May Be Targeting Mining
One more bullish development: we just need a fraction of liquidity chasing all assets classes in order to ignite PGM sector.
From TheGoldReport: "In a recently released report, Ernst & Young Global Mining and Metals Center declared that the mining sector, which used to be of little interest to private equity houses, may now be under reconsideration as a private equity target.Ernst & Young asserted in their report, "Mining Is Now the Time for Private Equity," that mining management is "behaving more astutely in limiting capacity expansion and future overproduction. As a result, normal supply/demand economics are being established.""
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Subprime formula: Subprime currency will boost all metals prices
Subprime formula: downgrade in mortgage back securities means more selling, more selling means more USD selling, yield going up means more selling USD nominated paper assets, gold, silver and other commodities are going up on strong population growth fundamentals and infrastructure developments.
For your home work:
http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/07/gold-and-metals-credit-suisse-issued.html
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Japan Should Diversify Reserves, Abe Adviser Ito Says
USD is TOASTED from here, China has set up Investment Agency, now Japan will follow with Reserves diversification out of US Dollar(these two countries are holding key from the Pandora box):
Lead Rises to Record $3,000 a Ton on China Demand
Who will benefit from record Lead prices: Lunding Mining can have a nice upside surprise this year on Lead production:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=agyXNcnh5U_M&refer=commodities
P.S. UBS in its research Note also bullish on metals.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=agyXNcnh5U_M&refer=commodities
P.S. UBS in its research Note also bullish on metals.
Sunday, July 08, 2007
Gold and Metals Credit Suisse issued Bullish forecast for prices
Last week CS issued very Bullish forecast for metals prices: Copper, Lead, Zinc and for Gold. They have increased price targets for 2007 and what is more important for long term. Who will benefit: look no further for your homework then LUNDIN MINING Lun.to (take over target IMHO), SILVER WHEATON SLW break out, SILVERSTONE RESOURCES SST.v new SLW tightly held, COPPER FOX METALS CUU.v miscommunication cost them dearly, MANTLE RESOURCES MTS.v LUN involved, ALMADEN MINERALS AMM.to LUN optioned property for CGH.to, SUNRIDGE GOLD SCG.v Eretrea LUN play, CONTINIUM RESOURCES CNU.v looks like bottomed out, RAINRIVER RESOURCES RR.v discovery in the making, BAJA MINING BAJ.v huge upside in case for Copper over 3.0 USD, STERLING MINING SRLM.ob production this year, AVINO GOLD AND SILVER MINES ASM.v beatten to the dust assets value without mineral credit is bigger then MC, ROXMARK MINES RMK.v moly play, MINES MANAGEMENT MGN Montana Silver Copper play below latest PP huge risk/upside reward in Call on Common Sense in Montane permitting Game. Time to accumulate Uranium plays in exploration MAX RESOURCES MXR.v, JNR RESOURCES JNN.v, URANIUM SA USA.ax, NUPOWER NUP.ax. Two so different companies with something in Common: SURAMINA RESOURCES SAX.to and TNR GOLD TNR.v.
Increase your power: study and think reward is coming.
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