Saturday, May 12, 2007

To those who are listening: capital preservation is N1 priority now. CS

I am never saying SELL to my bullish calls: it is always up to you: listen to me, do your thinking and establish position and then sell when it is time. Time is different for everyone, but today I will call for Capital Preservation. Take profit and go to cash at least 30% within next week. Do not rush and destroy your markets, but if decided act boldly and timely and with limits, spreading your orders. Individual charts will be published later. Nothing has changed, but do not forget that we are not marring our stocks - they are the way to create positive energy in the form of capital available for new creations. I should share my positions at the moment for more transparent play: No technology stocks, no big names, puts on GOOG, QQQQ, builders, real estate ETF, first time unleveraged and has taken profit on 30% on my biggest winning position. Reason: I feel definitely uncomfortable with general markets and would like to be in different mode: not trying to get last 20-30% on run up, but to buy value when everybody will be in panic. My value is in commodities: markets are very nervous and any drop back in China because of apparent disaster in USA and its economy could send shock waves across ALL ASSET CLASSES. Downside: Gold and Silver on the wedge of break out, but I think this time it will be VERY Political, just look at gold sales by Central banks this spring. More shake out will come. Time to build cash and build new positions on every desperate sell offs. Check your positions one by one. Fundamentals, management, TA. Will you buy it now again? If all intact: keep. If you are not sure sell 30%. Take profit on those with big run. Kill leverage. We are in the Great Bull market and survive in it. If I am wrong and our juniors will be unshaken we will enjoy further run and build new positions in places where nobody is going, no hype and pump - just value. Remember my very expensive lessons: if you feel too confident, check your cash position - Sell Off is coming. The best strategy so far is to buy when nobody wants and hold if value unchanged or going higher with metal prices and new exploration results. Never go for 50%, thousand things could go wrong - you need very big cushion of Potential value in order that its Realisation by trustworthy team will protect you from downside. What is the difference with juniors? Commodities will be needed - no questions here, if you have resources in the ground which are economical and confirmed by reputation of the Team and Industry Insiders positions - you have value in any market. Nowadays this value is exceptional and you must be prepared for the Next Big Run. Take profit where maybe 100% profit left and go where your next 500% could be. If you can not find it at the moment read some books and think, think, think with capital intact new ideas will come...

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Sufiy, you get me thinking and nervous...I have most of my assets in PM stocks, some I have lost pretty big in (QEE) but over all I've done pretty well, I hate to sell qee at a 50% loss, but feel that I am missing opportunity by not selling, anyway I know/feel that a big sell off is coming too..has to happen...but feel that PM stocks will suffer too, as you mentioned in your post, gold and related stocks look to BO now and all this other going on gives me anxiety....thanks for your blog....sensible.....thanks