Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Subprime collapse of credit markets and its application to Gold, Silver and Commodities.CS

Imaging that you have 50 million CAD dollars in cash and blood bath in Junior mining stocks like we had last Thursday. Is it bad for you when "solid names" are selling with 30% off in one day? What has changed from Spring when the same guys were making private placements and YOU can not get it?! I had first hand experience when by the end of the day of financing announcement it was completely sold out to investors. Now the same stocks are selling below PP levels. Almost all juniors completed private placements in record numbers this spring using the opportunity of free flowing money. Now they are busy drilling and news of new discoveries and confirmation of resources are starting to come into the market and stocks are still going down? So you must be very happy with your 50 million - you can accumulate on fire sale the same stocks you have dreamed about last spring with 40-50% discount. Now imaging that you have not 50 million but 1.5 trillion like China. With this amount you will not be able to play in tiny juniors market but look no further then Lunding mining: emerging mid tier producer with Zinc, Copper, Lead and Nickel portfolio with majority of mines in stable Europe and spiced with Silver, 25% in one of biggest in the world developing Copper and Cobalt mine in Congo and 49% in one of the biggest zinc deposits Ozernoe in Russia. Add to the basket investments in few promising juniors and record earning last quoter. And this company now could be bought at P/E=7.9 and forward P/E=6.82? I would dare to say that even if tomorrow China stock market will BE closed completely, its economy will still need commodities for its growth. So recent situation with sell off in Real Things, metals, gold and silver is nothing more than dream for newly appointed managers of SAFE investment agency in China. With temporary bounce in USD triggered by margins calls on loans in USD they can start their duty of diversification from USD into Gold, Silver and commodities needed for their explosive growth. I think now nobody is talking about FED rate hike any more. Financial economy which is now constitute almost all economy in USA is in deep trouble due to sub prime collapse in credit markets, recent shake out in stock markets will deepen consumers wounds already hurt buy housing melt down and its ability to spend will deteriorate further. If you look at the history in 1998 with LTCM bail out we are facing not one but few Fed rate cuts in a row just in order to keep things together in the financial markets. With real inflation still going up real rate will be deep in negative territory like in 2002 and it will propel prices of metals, gold and silver up into a new bull leg. When central banks of Spain and Switzerland were busy selling gold it went no further then to Saudis. India, China and Middle East demand for gold is up in 2nd Q 2007 as high as 30% in Saudi Arabia case. So if you are not squeezed on margin and preserved your capital now it is time to shop for good names with solid management and resources which will be needed always even if USA will be in recession and China will close its stock market. I must add that when insiders are buying and you can get a better deal than their purchase price it is becoming even more appealing. Lundin family just recently in August bought one more million shares in Lunding mining at CAD 13.2, Sterling mining, Mines management, Copper fox metals, Mantle resources are trading below last private placements, Silver wheaton and Tanzanian Gold Royalty companies have taken the hit as well. They are effectively call options on silver and gold price respectively without time decay. New wave of consolidation in the sector will ignite the upside move and these sale prices will not be for long time.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Smart analysis. Thanks