I am very blessed in many ways. Good thoughts are coming to me and sometimes I am bother to mention them. I hope you did not miss my Warning Piece. First time I really ACTED as I saw the situation: could I have been more bold in Action? No question about it, but first time I really closed the sequence: Observe, Make decision, Act. Now it is very good feeling to be able to employ capital at distressed levels of pricing in areas where nothing has changed fundamentally and they just got ahead of themselves. I remember that feeling when market has turned on a dime and you Saw it before, but was Not able to Act. You just sit in gripping panic and paralyses, unable to act. You would think: tomorrow, on uptick I will Sell - only to find yourself with minus 30% from the top. No problem here if you have studied the case and made intelligent, informed decision that this asset is in the Bull market, but if you saw the Signs, made Decision and the only problem is your Will and ability to Act - your performance will be not self confident. The main question here is not even the money, but Capital itself - your ability to Judge, Find value, Act accordingly and Follow. Technical analyses is not more esoteric than our life itself: picture of all ACTS in the market regarding this Asset. It has nothing in common with Intrinsic Value of that asset, but is the footprint of market Participants' Perceived Value. It is Emotional in nature and could be easily manipulated intentionally and "naturally" as noise of the market Participants' Excitement or Fear. Fear is more stronger emotion and usually brings down perceived value in the fearful eyes very sharply. Is everything so hopeless? Nope, so far not at all. If you will be able to Buy at least not at the Top and Sell not at the Bottom, Bull market will help all idiots to believe they are genius (I am in this category according to conventional economical and financial wisdom). I really urge you if you are reading: study at least what I wrote in CS category (Secrets of Common Sense). If you have strong and strange feeling that it is BS quit immediately and never come again, talk to your CFA and sleep well. If not: Read, Think and Challenge - it will be unbearable for nature that you will see part of something and will not understand the Whole, your education will be finished without even beginning. Remember: "You will be rich or poor not those advising you". My very expensive lessons:
1. Find the BULL, not for a day, week or month, ideally for 5-10 years. Mine is Junior Mining Now. Gold, Silver, Uranium, Metals - Things. Main drivers: End of Empire and USD - PGM as store of Ultimate Value, Rising of New Powers and Leap Frog into consumption of basic Necessities.
2. Pick up companies: first Potential Value, not 10-50% - Thousand things could go wrong - you need cushion of IHPV (Insanely High Potential Value). I was hesitating for a while when found CUU.v Copper Fox Metals, but acted firmly before stock took off from 0.5-0.6 level.
3. Leave only those with Credible Management. Like Warren Buffet put it: "I have never did any good deal with bad person". Why I have taken profit on Part of CUU.v (all initial Capital is out)? Publish Resources with 0% Cutt Off is Gross and until explained is minus in my assessment.
4. Check TA what is the Timing? (sorry Sir Warren) First asset class, then Company.
5. If it is Buy, check catalyses: what will help unleash potential value? Is it in foreseeable future?
6. Make decision - act boldly, with limits but in strong fashion. With time if you are right anomaly of misspricing will be not for long in the Market.
7. Then will start the Most Important process - Following: when is to Sell? This very important stage separates Fools and Their Money. I was a champion in this League in 2001-2002. The biggest problem is leverage, if you are not an Ace, kill it as you read this piece. Only margin call could force you into loss selling usually at the bottom of the correction. Even if you did not sell at Top, but weathered the storm the Bull market is your friend until it ENDS.
8. Profit is a profit, nobody gets bankrupt taking profits. If you feel very comfortable there could be a trouble - you could be biased in your Judgement, if the charts are screaming Sell - make assessment: Fundamentals, Management, TA. Take profit on biggest winners if TA is indicating Sell. Will you buy this company now? If not - SELL. If your capital intact new ideas will come. If you are not sure take 30% profit.
It is very simple and easy, couple of millions, few years and you will master your touch. If it is all too complicated and you do not have time to read CS and think - RUN away, do something else in your life. All I need from you now is just to be good to yourself and your own money. You can Share this piece with those who close to you. We will need a lot of thinkers with capital and positive energy. Do not forget the First Sentence.