Toby Connor: Gold Charts - Just To Keep Your Spirit High! $GLD $GDX $TNR.v $MUX $ABX

Dedicated to the All Gold Bugs. The less of us left - the closer to this picture we are getting ...

Mining M&A: China's Top Gold Firm Talking To Barrick And Friedland As Copper Rallies.

Gold Sents:

Charts Of The Day.

Aden Sisters: Gold Finally Bombed Out $TNR.v $MUX $GDX $NG $ABX $RGLD

  After yesterday's huge run Gold is confirming the Head and Shoulder Bullish reversal. Weekly close above $1,317 will be very important.

 Kirill Klip.:

FED Has Found ... Sorry, Created Inflation To Save Us All - Gold Celebrates ... Quietly So Far.

"Gold and Silver are acting today like if the Chinese virus "Missing Collateral" has finally reached the London BOE vaults!"

TNR Gold: Shotgun Gold Project - Why Do We Need New Gold Deposits?

Kitco:

Gold Finally Bombed Out

Gold dropped sharply a couple of weeks ago. Many experts can’t explain why, but there are several reasons that make sense…

SAFE HAVEN?

First, gold entered a seasonally slow period. This could last for another month or so but seasonality alone doesn’t explain why the decline was so steep and sudden.

More impressive, gold’s safe haven appeal has diminished somewhat. Following the Ukraine elections, for instance, concerns eased. But with Iraq now heating up, gold could continue its current rebound rise.

THE TECHNICAL PICTURE

Meanwhile, gold had strong support at $1280. This level had been tested several times but it clearly broke.

This means gold will probably continue to hold above the $1200 area. It also suggests gold could continue forming a head and shoulders bottom (see LS, H, RS on Chart 1).

Plus, there are growing signs indicating this could end up being the bottom for this decline, which has been in force since 2011- 12.

Looking at gold’s big picture since 1968, you’ll see what we mean.

Chart 2A shows that gold’s decline of the last few years looks small in the big picture, within the mega uptrending channel since 1968. 

Note that gold has had two major bull markets, in the 1970s and in the 2000s. 

The major rise in the ‘70s didn’t break its bull market red uptrend until 1984, several years after the peak in 1980.

The bull market red uptrend since 2001, however, is still intact.  On a big picture basis, it’ll be important to see if this trend holds. That is, as long as gold stays above the lows of last year, at $1210, this trend will stay solid. 

And according to gold’s leading long term indicator (B), it’s saying that gold remains at an extreme low area... In fact, this is the lowest it’s been since the 1980s.

Since these low areas tend to coincide with bottoms in the gold price, this tells us that gold is totally bombed out and the lows of last year are unlikely to be broken.

This doesn’t mean gold will soar from here.  Eventually yes, but for now we could see more backing and filling.

All things considered, it looks more like 2015 could be the year of a strong change to the upside.

DEFLATION GAINING MOMENTUM

One important reason why is because deflationary pressures have been intensifying.

Although there has been some improvement, global economies remain sluggish, despite massive stimulus efforts from the biggest central banks in the world.

This suggests that stimulus measures will likely continue in order to boost the global economies. And even though these measures may eventually cause inflation, the current economic sluggishness is stubborn and it’s feeding deflation.

Our inflation-deflation barometer is an indicator that measures rising inflation against falling deflation by using a ratio between gold and bonds.

Historically, gold has been used to measure inflation and bonds have measured deflation.

Chart 3 shows the ratio of the two since 2003. Notice the steady rise in gold (inflation) against bonds (deflation) through 2011. Moreover, after the 2011 peak in gold, bonds began to strengthen against gold and they’ve continued to be stronger since then.

In other words, we could still see bonds strengthen even more against gold in the months ahead. This would coincide with a sluggish economic outlook. But again, that may not be the case for long.

SILVER IS CHEAP

At the same time, silver is super cheap. It’s also cheap compared to most of the other markets.

Demand for silver is also very good.  A recent report said that physical demand rose to a record last year. 

This growing demand ties in well with the technical situation in silver. It too is bombed out and, like gold, it’ll likely head higher in the upcoming months.

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

--
Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter providing specific forecasts and recommendations on gold, stocks, interest rates and the other major markets. For more information, go to www.adenforecast.com   or  www.goldchartsrus.net"

US Dollar Meltdown - Will Gold Start To Move Finally Up Now? GLD GDX TNR.v MUX NG ABX

  

  US Dollar today is in a total meltdown mood and is holding just a notch above the psychologically crucial 79.00 level at 79.09 now. Gold is moving between 1,300 and 1,317, which was tested yesterday. The both levels are crucial as we have discussed before. Move above MA50 at $1,317 will ignite the new Rally and short covering will provide the fuel for the launch of Leg Up Two in this Gold Bull market.

Eric Sprott: The Chinese Gold Vortex - Do Not Miss This Golden Opportunity GDX TNR.v MUX

  CS. Gold is building a very strong reversal pattern after resent correction. The only problem is that we are not the only one watching this chart closely and manipulators are trying to paint the breakdown on the chart above. In the normal market this picture will indicate very strong Bull market, building the base after The Golden Cross to make its Second Bull Leg Up. We have the close right above the MA200 at $1,300 and Bollinger Bands suggest that volatility will increase dramatically. Will "They" be able to break Gold down again? This is the question which will separate boys from the men again. The most important for us that this technical picture reflects the fundamentals Eric Sprott is talking about in his article. 

  Should Gold confirm this reversal by breaking Up above the MA50 at $1,317 Gold Junior Miners with the strong stories will finally start to move. This very illiquid and speculative type of investments in Gold equities normally start to participate in the stage two of the Gold Rally, when liquidity from professional players is searching for the new "ten-baggers" after booking the profits from the initial Gold Breakout. Every market is the function of the supply and demand, with Equities hitting all-times-highs and moving into the weak "Sell In May" season Gold Junior Miners have all chances to remind why they are considered to be so volatile. The way up normally is a very dramatic move in magnitude after such an obliteration as you can see on the chart below. The most important indicator here is the Volume - money is coming into the sector. More."

TNR Gold Investor Presentation Lithium, Gold And Copper. TNR.v MUX GLD GDX LIT CU

  Kirill Klip has posted today the new TNR Gold presentation. Company has 100% of Shotgun Gold project in Alaska, Los Azules Copper Back-in right and shares of McEwen Mining, and strategic stake of 25.5% in International Lithium with Ganfeng Lithium holding 17.4%. Please do your own DD as always, contact the company and enjoy the ride, hopefully in your own Electric Car.

Kirill Klip ‏@kirillklip  2h

My latest upload : TNR Gold Investor Presentation March 2014 on @slideshare $TNR.v $ILC.v #Lithium #Gold #Copper http://www.slideshare.net/KirillKlip/tnr-gold-investor-presentation-march-2014 …

TNR Gold Investor Presentation March 2014 from Kirill Klip

Gary Schellenberg discribes very good TNR Gold assets portfolio in this video from last year and below you can find his latest participation interview in The Next Biggest Winner".

AGORACOM: TNR Gold and International Lithium in "The Next Biggest Winner" TNR.v ILC.v

"TORONTO, ONTARIO - The Next Biggest Winner, a leading and nationally televised investment show focusing on small-cap and mid-cap companies, is pleased to release episode 24.

Gary Schellenberg,  President  of TNR Gold Corp. joins us to discuss the company’s Shotgun Gold project in Alaska which  contains 20,734,313 tonnes at 1.06 grams per tonne (“g/t”) gold for a total of 705,960 ounces gold (“Au”) using a 0.5 g/t Au cut-off."

International Lithium: Ganfeng Lithium Is Halted Pending Major Acquisition ILC.v TNR.v LIT TSLA KNDI

"We are following International Lithium here with its strategic partner from China Ganfeng Lithium. Elon Musk with his Tesla Gigafactory has brought a lot of attention to the Lithium strategic commodity story and Asian companies are coming into the spotlight as well now. LG Chem is talking about building major Lithium battery plant in China and Lithium Materials Industry is getting the green light from the Chinese government in its efforts to curb the horrible pollution.

"Kirill Klip, president of International Lithium (TSXV:ILC), views the announcement of Tesla’s Gigafactory as a “groundbreaking development.”

Tesla “brought attention to what Elon Musk has accomplished,” Klip told Lithium Investing News. “He showed to everyone that electric cars are not toys anymore — they are for real.”

International Lithium's Strategic Partner, Ganfeng Lithium, Takes Large Stake in Mariana and a $10 million Option on the Blackstairs Projects ILC.v TNR.v LIT

  "Mar 19, 2014 (ACCESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- Vancouver, B.C. / ACCESSWIRE / March - 2014 / International Lithium Corp. (the "Company" or "ILC") announces several major transactions with strategic partner GFL International Co., Ltd. ("Ganfeng Lithium" or "GFL")."

 

International Lithium Corp Presentation ILC.v TSXV from Kirill Klip

 

TNR Gold Shotgun Gold Project in Alaska Presentation. from Kirill Klip

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Clive Maund: GDXJ Signals Imminent Breakout Into Major PM Sector Uptrend TNR.v ILC.v MUX GDXJ GDX

 

Frank Holmes: These Gold Charts Will Make Your Heart Beat Faster TNR.v MUX GDX GLD ABX GG RGLD

  "Frank Holmes presents a very interesting set of charts supporting the bullish case for Gold and Gold stocks. Now with Gold crossing 200MA we have the game changer for the Gold marker. Professional traders have positioned themselves after 20MA was breaking out to the upside and smart money has followed after 50MA. Now the retail public will start buying the new Gold Bull leg.

  Number of Gold stocks with, McEwen Mining among them, has printed The Golden Cross already, when 50MA is crossing 200MA to the upside, confirming the bullish reversal pattern. It is very bullish set up and we expect the rally in Gold stocks to widen its base to include the smaller junior miners."

Hedgehog Trader ‏@HedgehogTrader  Feb 7

TNR Gold TNR.V is one of the most intriguing microcap stories I follow. #insidersbuying cc: @Sufiy @TedDixon @inkresearch

TNR Gold Insiders report: CEO And CFO Buying Shares. 

Clive Maund:

GDXJ Signals Imminent Breakout Into Major PM Sector Uptrend...

Monday February 24, 2014 

A lot of investors are going to miss out on the huge bullmarket advance in the Precious Metals sector that is just starting as this is written, because they are frightened of the impact of the broad market on the sector, but as we will see, the sector itself is signaling that it is going up, big time.

If the broad market looks set to go up, then many investors think that the Precious Metals sector will be ignored and drift lower again, as the broad market continues to rise. If the broad market tanks, then they think that the PM will get dragged down with as in 2008.

Actually, the way that it is looking now is that the broad market will continue higher and higher and the PM sector will soar. Why would that happen? – because we are on the road to hyperinflation, that’s why. It is becoming increasingly apparent that either the Fed will chicken out of significant tapering, or that even if they do backpedal it will be too late, as the huge overload of extra money that has been injected into the system since 2008 wreaks havoc.

Fortunately, as far as investing in the PM sector is concerned, we don’t have to bother to extrapolate fundamental scenarios, we just have to follow the message of the market itself, via Technical Analysis as applied to recent action in the PM sector.

It is no coincidence that the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, GDXJ, is right on the point of breaking out from its downtrend in force from 2011 at the same time as many PM stocks are right at the starting line of major uptrends, being at key resistance at the top of base patterns that have formed since last June or on the point of breaking out of long-term downtrend, or both.

We don’t have to wait for breakout to occur before taking positions, because the volume pattern and volume indicators in the GDXJ have already signaled that it is going to break out to the upside soon, or imminently, to commence a major uptrend, and this junior ETF is highly unlikely to enter an uptrend without the large and mid-cap stocks taking off higher with it.

Just look at the stupendous record upside volume in the GDXJ on the rally this year on its 4-year chart above, and how its volume indicators are spiking. This tells you all you need to know – it is sending the clearest possible message that the sector is going up big time, because this dynamic volume action signifies the start of a breakout drive that should shortly take the GDXJ clear out of its downtrend and launch it – and the entire sector – into a vigorous bullmarket advance. For this reason there is thought to be little point in waiting for breakout to occur before establishing positions, and it is on this premise that we have “backed up the truck” on clivemaund.com and been loading up with the better stocks as fast as we can. Why not join us, if you haven’t already, and get your nose in the trough ahead of the mob?

Market Vector Junior Gold Miners ETF, GDXJ on NYSE, closed at $42.91 on 21st February 14.

By Clive Maund"

Gold Catalyst: U.S. Government Says 'No Inflation' As Food Prices Soar MUX TNR.v GLD SLV GDX

  Everybody who is living the normal life knows that all food prices are going up every year. So far inflation was exported to emerging markets and places like China with strict management of its currency valuation. Jim Rickards has explained it in the great detail in his book: Currency Wars. Now after The Currency Wars we are entering The Financial Wars. China has already cut its US Treasury holdings most since 2011 and bought the record amount of Gold. Watch Yuan to go higher now. The great inflation episode can be much closer than a lot of people think. Rising velocity of money will push inflation back into the Western system and Gold already smells that it is coming with its recent breakout.

China Cuts Treasury Holding Most Since 2011 Amid Taper.

Peter Schiff: Gold Update, The Dollar Will Collapse First, Janet Yellen Wants More Inflation MUX TNR.v GDX GLD

 "The future will show who is right, but it is very encouraging that despite the very strong move up in Gold there is still record bearishness towards this sector among investors. This is how all Bull markets have started and this New Gold Bull Leg will be no different.

  Gold is pushing $1230 level today and Silver is looking at the $22.00 level. US dollar is dangerously close to 80.00 level again, which supposed to be protected. Peter Schiff: "Janet Yellen said that she wants more inflation - she will get it."

Toby Connor: Dollar Breaks Down, Great Inflation to Push Gold And Silver Much Higher TNR.v MUX GDX GLD SLV

  "We are  following Toby Connor with his very interesting concept of The Great Inflation in 2014. Gold was in a breakout mood this week and finally has broken to the upside from $1270 level with intraday high on Friday at $1,322 and close at $1,319. We have now the massive short squeeze in action in Gold and Silver. Silver has broken to the upside as well on Friday closing at $21.51. Gold mining shares are making the very good progress as well.

  On the chart above you can see that Gold has crossed the very important level on daily chart and moved above its 200MA at $1,309. It will bring a lot of attention of traders and shorts will be running to the exit now. Mass media will be picking up the Gold story as well now. CNBC is talking about Gold and Miners already and Jim Cramer advises to watch GDX - Gold miners ETF. Next levels in Gold to watch is $1,360 and $1,420 to complete Double Bottom Reversal pattern on weekly chart.

  Silver had its massive breakout as well following the Gold footsteps this week. Next levels to watch here are $22.75 and $25 to confirm its Double Bottom Reversal pattern on weekly chart. The most important here that Silver has broken to the upside above its 200MA at $21.13 and closed above it at $21.49."

  

Gold Breaks 1,320: The Mother Of Short Squeeze Has Arrived TNR.v MUX GDX GLD SLV RGLD ABX GG

  "Gold is sending its Happy Valentines to all Gold Bugs today and breaks $1320 on the massive short squeeze. Gold shorts will have their Blood Friday now. The real reason for this move is the realisation of the groundbreaking shift in the structure of the Gold market with the unprecedented demand of 2,181 tons of Gold from China in 2013. Janet Yellen testimony has opened the possibility To Taper The Taper and James Rickards is calling for the Taper Pause in June. US dollar is going down very close to 80.00 level again. This level will be protected, but should the US Dollar break down below 80.00 Gold and Silver will go vertical towards $1,500 and $25 respectively.  Our short Squeeze watch includes McEwen Mining and TNR Gold. McEwen Mining had 26.8 million shares sold short or 8.6 days to cover, according to NASDAQ. MUX.to has rocketed from December low of CAD1.80 to CAD3.27 close yesterday. Gold breakout will push shorts into the corner, but explosive move in Silver will have even more effect on this company.  TNR Gold is still day dreaming, but move in McEwen Mining should pull out this junior out of its misery. Los Azules Copper development will be next to watch on the back of recent M&A activity in the sector and CRB - commodity index breakout to the upside."

Koos Jansen: January Chinese Gold Demand All-Time Record, 247 Tons TNR.v MUX GLD GDX RGLD

 

  Koos Jansen reports on continued unprecedented appetite from China for Gold, according to his information, after  the unprecedented demand of 2,181 tons of Gold from China in 2013 Chinese Gold demand hits All-Time record of 247 tons in January. Now Gold today's breakout above $1,322 level can be put in another perspective.

Gold Breaks 1,320: The Mother Of Short Squeeze Has Arrived TNR.v MUX GDX GLD SLV RGLD ABX GG

  "Gold is sending its Happy Valentines to all Gold Bugs today and breaks $1320 on the massive short squeeze. Gold shorts will have their Blood Friday now. The real reason for this move is the realisation of the groundbreaking shift in the structure of the Gold market with the unprecedented demand of 2,181 tons of Gold from China in 2013. Janet Yellen testimony has opened the possibility To Taper The Taper andJames Rickards is calling for the Taper Pause in June. US dollar is going down very close to 80.00 level again. This level will be protected, but should the US Dollar break down below 80.00 Gold and Silver will go vertical towards $1,500 and $25 respectively.
  Our short Squeeze watch includes McEwen Mining and TNR Gold. McEwen Mining had 26.8 million shares sold short or 8.6 days to cover, according to NASDAQ. MUX.to has rocketed from December low of CAD1.80 to CAD3.27 close yesterday. Gold breakout will push shorts into the corner, but explosive move in Silver will have even more effect on this company.
  TNR Gold is still day dreaming, but move in McEwen Mining should pull out this junior out of its misery. Los Azules Copper development will be next to watch on the back of recent M&A activity in the sector and CRB - commodity index breakout to the upside."

In Gold We Trust:

January Chinese Gold Demand All-Time Record, 247 Tons

Koos Jansen.

Sorry for the delay in my weekly reporting on SGE withdrawals. Due to the Chinese Lunar new year the SGE was closed from 31-01-2014 til 06-02-2014 (dd-mm-yyyy) so I had to wait a bit longer for the publication of the numbers. What they eventually released were the trade numbers from 5 trading days, January 27 – 30, and February 7.

Lets skim through the news first. Bloomberg just reported that Chinese gold usage, according to the China Gold Association, in 2013 was 1176 tons. First of all I don’t understand this new term usage, nor have I ever understood the term consumption regarding gold. If you have some knowledge of gold you know it’s never consumed, gold is immortal and will be recycled till the end of times. Its immortal property is one of the reasons why it’s the most marketable commodity, hence we started using it as money thousands of years ago. The other reasons are it has the right scarcity, its divisible and subsequently small units can be merged/melted into a large unit (a proces which can be repeated to infinity without any loss of material).

Having said that; How can gold demand (I assume that’s what they mean by usage) be 1176 tons, when China mainland net imported 1123 tons just from Hong Kong, domestically mined 428 tons, and additionally net imported gold through other ports? Regular readers of this blog know the number 1176 tons of demand is false, it was in fact 2197 tons as my research has exposed.

Other mainstream news outlets (like the Financial Times and the Telegraph) are slowly starting to scratch their heads about the Chinese gold market. It won’t take years before the Chinese will fail to hide their true insatiable demand for physical gold. Since 2008, after Lehman fell, the China Gold Association (CGA) has changed the way they measure gold demand. In 2007 they reported in the CGA Gold Yearbook:

In 2007 the amount of gold withdrawn from the warehouses of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, total gold demand of that year, was 363.194 tons of gold, an increase of 48 % compared to 2006…

  

In other words, SGE withdrawals equal total Chinese demand (in 2013 SGE withdrawals accounted for 2197 tons), as I have been writing about for months! Starting in 2008 the CGA switched measuring gold demand fromwholesale level (SGE withdrawals) to retail level in order to suppress demand figures. This way they were able to hide investment demand. (for my full analysis read this)

It’s remarkable the CGA publishes these suppressed demand numbers, which are being copied by western media without any second thoughts, while at the same time the CGA has written reports, which are being ignored by western media, that state Chinese demand surpassed 1000 tons (it was 1043 tons to be precise) in 2011. FromThe China Gold Market Report 2011, page 28:

Deregulation of the gold control to open the gold market to the public in 2002 led to the constant rise in China’s gold demand, which unprecedentedly exceeded 1,000 tons in 2011…

The China Gold Market Reports 2007 – 2011 all state Chinese demand equals SGE withdrawals (due to the structure of the Chinese gold market designed in 2002). Since 2011 the CGA ceased publishing the China Gold Market. Chinese demand was such that it became uncomfortable for the Chinese authorities to lay their cards on the table.

To continue to report on suppressed demand numbers the CGA has recently signed a partnership with CPM group. Together they hope to gain more credibility in spreading incomplete data - for as long as it holds.

For the CGA this is all strategics. I wonder if CPM Group knows what CGA president, Sun Zhaoxue, writes about the gold market in the Chinese media. Allow me to quote a few snippets from exclusive translations I publishedhere and here:

…the United States intends to suppress gold to ensure the Dollar’s dominance, the fall in the price of gold was premeditated, and a part of the currency war.

…The hottest topic at the moment is oil and gold. The ground war we are seeing around the world is I think war for oil whereas gold is the currency war.

…The US owes Germany so much gold but instead of repaying immediately, it sets a 2020 deadline to return the gold. From this example and process as well as some typical factors, this is a downright currency war to maintain the US Dollar hegemony by defeating all other currencies.

…Gold now suffers from a ‘smokescreen’ designed by the US, which stores 74% of global official gold reserves, to put down other currencies and maintain the US Dollar hegemony. Going to the source, the rise of the US dollar and British pound, and later the euro currency, from a single country currency to a global or regional currency was supported by their huge gold reserves. 

…In the global financial crisis, countries in the world political and economic game, we once again clearly see that gold reserves have an important function for financial stability and are an ‘anchor’ for national economic security.

…We need to establish a more clear national gold strategy, continue to grow gold reserves and progressively become a ‘gold-reserve’ nation that is commensurate with the country’s economic strength.

 …To fundamentally solve these problems, the state will need to elevate gold to an equal strategic resource as oil and energy.

…In addition, because individual investment demand is an important component of China’s gold reserve system, we should encourage individual investment demand for gold. Practice shows that gold possession by citizens is an effective supplement to national reserves and is very important to national financial security.

In short, Sun knows the world is in a currency war and in war time China will keep it cards close to its chest. I hope the SGE doesn’t stop publishing withdrawal numbers, it’s the best benchmark we have at this moment.

Shanghai Gold Exchange Withdrawal Numbers January 2014

Withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults in January 2014 accounted for 247 tons, which is an increase of 43 % compared to January 2013. It’s also more than monthly global mining production and an all-time record! China mainland mines about 35 tons per month which is required to be sold first through the SGE. The other 212 tons (247 – 35) had to supplied by import or recycled gold. My estimate is that scrap couldn’t have been more than 25 tons, so import in January was a staggering 187 tons. China is still draining the vaults in the west BIG TIME!

Because the last SGE weekly report covers four days in January and one in February, I multiplied the weekly amount by o.2 and subtracted the outcome from the year to date number to get to the January total. This number may be revised when the SGE publishes the January monthly report, but I don’t expect a significant change.

[Update 14-02-2014, January SGE withdrawals were 246, I was one ton of, still a record.] 

Overview Shanghai Gold Exchange data 2014 week 5 and 6

- 40 metric tons withdrawn in 5 trading days of week 5 and 6   (27-01-2014/07-02-2014)

- w/w  - 29.9 %

- 256 metric tons withdrawn year to date

My research indicates that SGE withdrawals equal total Chinese gold demand. For more information read this, this, this and this.

This is a screen dump from the Chinese SGE trade report; the second number from the left (blue – 本周交割量) is weekly gold withdrawn from the vaults in Kg, the second number from the right (green – 累计交割量) is the total YTD.

This chart shows SGE gold premiums based on data from the Chinese SGE weekly reports (it’s the difference between the SGE gold price in yuan and the international gold price in yuan).

Below is a screen dump of the premium section of the SGE weekly report; the first column is the date, the third is the international gold price in yuan, the fourth is the SGE price in yuan, and the last is the difference.

In Gold We Trust"