David Morgan's 2014 Silver Survival Guide SLV, MUX, TNR.v, GDX

  David Morgan shares his outlook for Silver and Gold markets in 2014. This discussion provides the very good explanation how the Silver, Gold markets and Bullion banks are functioning. COMEX, LBMA and other industry organisations are explained in a very comprehensive way and it will help you to cut to the bone through the jargon studying these market.

Adam Hamilton: Silver Short Squeeze SLV, MUX, TNR.v, GDX

"Adam Hamilton presents his outlook on the recent situation in Silver market. Gold and Silver have very strong start in 2014 recovering from the testing of Double Bottom in 2013 on the new money allocated to the sector. If next week this dynamic will continue we can have the very explosive situation as it happen in summer 2013 with Silver skyrocketing towards 25 mark. Junior miners should participate in this fireworks again like it happen with McEwen Mining and TNR Gold before, which we are following here. The chart above from KWN demonstrates that Silver is now extremely oversold."

Eric Sprott 2014 Sends Gold North of $2,000 and Silver Over $50 GLD, MUX, TNR.v, GDX

"Gold has started new year with the bang and is solidly up from the retest of the low in 2013. Bearishness in the sector is another reason for the big turn around and equity markets are taking a breather now as well. Great Rotation from Bubbles into the Real Assets could be just in the beginning. The action next week will be very important for Gold and Silver markets and Gold mining shares."

Jesse: COMEX Gold Registered Inventory Potential Claims Still Historically High 80 to 1 GLD, MUX, TNR.v, GDX

  

  Jesse reports that COMEX is still leveraged at the record levels of 80 owners per one oz of Gold. Next week will be very important for Gold market. The move above $1260 will bring more short covering and will bring more confirmation on Double Bottom retested in 2013 at $1180 level.

Frank Holmes: Gold Stocks - What to Expect in the New Year GLD, MUX, TNR.v, GDX, SLV

"Frank Holmes starts new year with the very insightful outlook for Gold and Gold miners. China buys record amount of Gold in 2013 and UK and German authorities are investigating Gold market manipulations now. Chances are that this manipulation can go forever with Gold flowing by tons from the West to the East. Chart above from KWN demonstrates that Gold is in the most oversold sate in its history now."

KWN: “The Most Remarkable News In The Gold & Silver Markets” 

 "King World News has published very interesting long term charts for Gold, Silver and Gold Mining Shares."

Jesse's Cafe Americain:

Comex Warehouses: Registered Inventory Potential Claims Still Historically High 80 to 1

January is a non-active month, and overall inventories are adequate.

Those who hold bullion will need some incentive to move it to the deliverable, registered category for February, which is often a significant physical delivery month.

But all in all, the Comex is now the tail wagging the dog, the paper sideshow to the real bullion markets which are moving East.

Jordan Roy-Byrne: No Retest Of June Lows For Precious Metals GLD, GDX, GDXJ, MUX, TNR.v

  

 Jordan's observations about the parallels in 1976 and today's Gold market are very interesting and discussed a lot among the industry insiders. We have put this chart one more time at the top on this entry as potentially the most significant one in this Gold Market Turn Around.

  With Gold solidly above its recent low the general sentiment is still very bearish, a lot of players are talking about "the broken Gold market" and waiting for the retest. This circumstances could provide the most exciting rally for Gold if history of Markets, Greed and Fear could be a guidance again.

Gold Short Squeeze: Claims Per Deliverable Ounce of Gold Rise To Over 54 GLD, GDX, GDXJ, MUX, TNR.v

"Jesse reports that the Gold fractional Ponzi Scheme has achieved staggering leverage of over 54 claims per once of Gold available for delivery. We will witness the run on the Bullion banks in the very near future. The Mother of all Short Squeeze will be unleashed in the Gold market and the main players have been already positioning themselves to capitalise on it during the orchestrated gold Market Collapse this spring."

Gold Breakout: Jim Sinclair - The three entities that called the $1900 in gold are back long. GLD, SLV, GDX, MUX, TNR.v

"Now we have the full A Team calling for the New Bull Leg in Gold. Summer doll drums time out is officially over. Gold was over 1400 intraday and Silver is over 24 now. Junior miners are exploding to the upside with McEwen Mining pushing 3 dollar mark. Survived Juniors will show this Fall what is called the ten baggers again."

Kitco:

No Retest Of June Lows For Precious Metals

Friday September 06, 2013 14:11

Recently I’ve received some emails from those who are concerned about a retest of the June low in the precious metals complex. That prompted me to look at how rebounds develop from significant bottoms. In recent months we focused on historical bottoms in gold stocks and it helped us to pinpoint the best buying opportunities. In this editorial we broaden the scope and examine how certain bottoms play out and why they play out in a particular manner. The length and depth of the preceding bear market helps us to understand how the ensuing bull market evolves during its initial rebound. 

Below is a chart that shows the S&P 500, CCI (commodities) and Gold from 2007 through 2009. The S&P 500 declined for nearly 18 months without any major rallies. It was extremely oversold and enjoyed a V bottom. The March bottom was actually somewhat a retest of the November low though it did form a new low. Meanwhile, commodities were very oversold but for only a short period of time. Therefore, after the market bottomed it “based” for about four months before accelerating. (This is somewhat similar to what occurred following the 1987 stock market crash). Gold was oversold but only for a short period of time. Its bottom took a few weeks to form and then within a month had a retest. 

Next, look at the 1974 bottom in the S&P 500. The market was cut in half over more than an 18-month period. It was very oversold and oversold for a long period of time. The retest occurred within two months of the bottom and then the rebound accelerated. 

The chart below (from nowandfutures.com) plots Gold from today with Gold from 1975-1976. Back then Gold declined by nearly 45% and over an 18-month period. Gold was extremely oversold and oversold for an extended period of time. That could be why Gold didn’t have a retest. This time around Gold was in a similar position. It declined over 35% over a 20-month period but has since rebounded over $200/oz. It’s not a coincidence that the two rebounds occurred without a retest.

These studies provide great examples and a great education with regards to post-bottom price action. Here is our interpretation. If a market is extremely oversold and has declined for a long period of time then it is more likely to have a V-type bottom. If a retest doesn’t occur (in this case) within two months then the bottom is most likely in. If a market is extremely oversold but has only declined for a short period of time (1987 crash, 2008 crash) then a base building process (or two steps forward, one step back) should be expected over the coming weeks.  

If a market is extremely oversold for an extended period of time then the selling has been exhausted, therefore leaving little resistance to the rebound. This explains the V bottom. Conversely, if a market hasn’t been oversold for an extended period then there are still some sellers that come in after the bottom and slow down the rebound.

It’s been two months since the bottom in precious metals and the sector remains comfortably above its lows. Silver is still $5/oz above its lows while Gold is nearly $200/oz above its lows. It’s too late to expect a retest of the lows. In fact, the miners already tested their lows in early August which was five weeks after the bottom. Given what we’ve studied, the severity of the 2011-2013 cyclical bear market, and the recent strong rebound, there is no compelling reason to expect a retest or any major decline.

The chart below plots Gold as well as various miner ETFs with arrows emphasizing the 50-day moving averages.   

Last week we wrote:

The bottom line is the current correction or consolidation is quite healthy for the sector. Many stocks have made huge runs in a very short period of time and are set to digest those gains and correct short-term overbought conditions. Be patient over the coming days and weeks and use the 50-dma as a guide for support and potential lows.

The above chart shows that gold and silver stocks of all stripes are quite close to testing the now upward sloping 50-day moving averages. We should see a test of that support over the next few days. Don’t fret over recent weakness as its an opportunity. If you are kicking yourself for not buying the June or August lows, then you may get another chance very soon.  If you’d be interested in our analysis on the companies poised to lead this new bull market, we invite you to learn more about our service.  

Good Luck!

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
Jordan@TheDailyGold.com
TheDailyGold"

Gold Short Squeeze: Claims Per Deliverable Ounce of Gold Rise To Over 54 GLD, GDX, GDXJ, MUX, TNR.v

  

  Jesse reports that the Gold fractional Ponzi Scheme has achieved staggering leverage of over 54 claims per once of Gold available for delivery. We will witness the run on the Bullion banks in the very near future. The Mother of all Short Squeeze will be unleashed in the Gold market and the main players have been already positioning themselves to capitalise on it during the orchestrated gold Market Collapse this spring.

Turd Ferguson: More Evidence That JPM Has Cornered Comex Gold GLD, GDX, GDXJ, MUX, TNR.v

"We continue to build up our puzzle together for The Crime Of The Century - Gold Market Manipulation by the banksters. Planet Ponzi run by the banksters is very cynical in its attempts to push everybody to the worthless FIAT IOUs by all means necessary.

  Turd Ferguson provides very interesting findings on the recent events behind the curtain in the gold market and what could happen next. 

  It appears that the Boyz from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan know too well where the Real Value is and they were  shaking the tree very hard to get out of Gold short positions and accumulate longs from the weak hands in the market place, just before the Syria geopolitical card will be played out."

Guess Which "Bearish" Bank Bought A Record Amount Of GLD In Q2 GLD, GDX, GDXJ, MUX, TNR.v

"Zero Hedge reports what we have already suspected, but now it is the matter of fact and we have the clear answer Who Was Buying. We must be close to that Waking Up Moment Peter Schiff is talking about."

Jesse's Cafe Americain:

Claims Per Deliverable Ounce of Gold Rise To Over 54 As the August Delivery Period Ends

"When I began the Ponzi scheme I believed it would end shortly and I would be able to extricate myself and my clients from the scheme. However, this proved difficult, and ultimately impossible, and as the years went by I realized that this day would inevitably come..."

Bernard Madoff

The August delivery period on the COMEX ended last Friday with a little over 701,000 ounces of gold marked as deliverable in their warehouses.

Higher prices may be required to pry more ounces of real bullion out of storage and into the deliverable category.

August has passed, but September has just begun.   And soon enough the winds will turn cold.

Weighed, and found wanting.

Stand and deliver.