Friday, September 26, 2008

FEDs should consider to relaunch the banking system based on Google's Android.

Why not? Google's market cap is still bigger then all gold mining companies in HUI Gold Bugs Index. Company has the best banking motto "Do not be Evil". And its clicks are solid as gold or maybe even better. You click me your invoice I will click you back my payments click, click, click We all clicking will not be able to keep up with the FED printing money.

The End of Empire, US dollar and world as we know it.

This is it, the real decouple:

China Banks Cut Currency Trading With Foreign Lenders

"Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- China's banks are limiting foreign- exchange transactions with U.S. and European financial companies on concern tighter global credit markets will cause more failures.
Domestic banks are cutting trading with international firms in the interbank market, according to Zhuang Zhiqiang, a trader at Xiamen International Bank Co., which is partially owned by the Asian Development Bank. The move aims to control risks after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. stunned domestic investors, said Zhao Qingming, an analyst in Beijing at China Construction Bank Corp., the nation's second-largest lender.
``We've turned more cautious,'' said Zhuang, who is based in the southern Chinese city of Xiamen. ``Bank officials are worried about settlement risks as the ongoing crisis has weakened people's trust in U.S. banks.''
Washington Mutual Inc. today became the biggest U.S. lender to collapse and the nation's lawmakers have yet to agree on a plan to end the credit crisis. A Treasury proposal to buy $700 billion of troubled assets from financial companies using taxpayers' funds has been countered by a suggestion that holders of mortgage-related securities pay premiums into a fund that would insure their holdings.
Bank of China Ltd., the nation's biggest currency trader, has tightened control of foreign exchange trading with overseas banks, said a person at the bank, who asked not to be identified. Wang Zhaowen, Bank of China's Beijing-based spokesman, declined to comment today. "

Nevsun Resources NSU.to is up 50% on 2.2 million shares.

Welcome to the Juniors mining world, stocks were beaten into the dust during recent crash in the market, but those with resources has become a great value play. Is the acquisition finally in the making here? Somebody is definitely interested.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Lets Play Bailout

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S27yitK32ds

Canada Zinc Metals former Mantle Resources MTS.v starts trading tomorrow under CZX.v

http://www.mantleresources.com/032006/files/en/asp/ir/pdfs/nr/2008/NR20080922NameChange.pdf

RIMM dissappoints and tanking, will Google GOOG be next to miss?

Bailout is like Prozac keeps everybody happy until you remember the reason: Economy is in a grave danger. Google particularly exposed:
1. Even before recent market blow off its growth rate was deteriorating. With Financial sector under water its revenue streams are definitely effected.
2. Multiple market cap to FCF is unsustainable in a Bear market and nobody even The President is not questioning it any more.
3. US Dollar rally takes it toll on non US revenue and it will be lower this Q.

Bear Case continued:

http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2008/07/google-goog-bear-case-contunued.html

TNR Gold TNR.v: Minera Andes MAI.v announces excellent metallurgical testing results for Los Azules

TNR Gold TNR.v has a conditional 25% back in right on 50% of the Northern part of the property. Company has recently announced that it has filed a lawsuit against "MIM Xtrata Argentina" in BC Canada to clear the status of Escorpio IV property in the proximity of Los Azules and to consider a 25% back in right "time condition" as contrary to the negotiated terms.
"SPOKANE, WA, Sept. 25 /CNW/ - Minera Andes Inc. (TSX: MAI and US OTC: MNEAF) is pleased to announce the receipt of excellent results from the metallurgical testing program completed as part of the Los Azules Project 43-101 Preliminary Assessment (scoping study) planned for completion by yearend. The test results show that the Los Azules ore material is amenable to conventional flotation recovery methods and that the overall metal recoveries and the copper concentrate grades are high.
Allen Ambrose, president of Minera Andes, said: "The positive metallurgical testing program shows that standard reagents and flotation methods can be used at Los Azules to produce a high quality saleable concentrate. Copper recoveries over 92% and copper concentrate grades over 30% copper indicate that flotation concentration would be the preferred process for all ore types, which are of medium hardness for grinding. Gold and silver grades are also sufficient to contribute payable precious metals to the concentrate."

President issues warning to US Dollar Holders.

What could make them run out of US dollar faster then President's warning on “Our entire economy is in danger”?
In the early morning the headline was: "President Issues Warning To Americans"
"WASHINGTON — President Bush appealed to the nation Wednesday night to support a $700 billion plan to avert a widespread financial meltdown, and signaled that he is willing to accept tougher controls over how the money is spent.
As Democrats and the administration negotiated details of the package late into the night, the presidential candidates of both major parties planned to meet Mr. Bush at the White House on Thursday, along with leaders of Congress. The president said he hoped the session would “speed our discussions toward a bipartisan bill.”
Mr. Bush used a prime-time address to warn Americans that “a long and painful recession” could occur if Congress does not act quickly.
“Our entire economy is in danger,” he said.
On Capitol Hill, Democrats said that progress toward a deal had come after the White House had offered two major concessions: a plan to limit pay of executives whose firms seek government assistance, and a provision that would give taxpayers an equity stake in some of the firms so that the government can profit if the companies prosper in the future. Details of those provisions, and many others, were still under discussion."

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

US Dollar, Gold and Bailout: Barrick ABX Sees `Large-Scale' Gold Buying on Bailout

The opinion from biggest gold producer is definitely worth more then all other subprime spins in the market:
"Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Barrick Gold Corp. Chairman Peter Munk said bullion prices will go higher, driven by large-scale buying by ``major, major'' holders of dollars who fear the effects of the U.S. government's bailout plan on the currency.
Central banks or sovereign wealth funds are among those likely to buy gold to diversify their investments and hedge against the risk of a weaker dollar, given the government's $700 billion plan to support the banking system, Munk said today.
``That impact on holders of U.S. dollars in China or Russia or Abu Dhabi or Kuwait is that they're going to say, `What is that going to mean for the U.S. dollar, and what alternative are we going to have?' '' Munk said in an interview in New York. ``So gold is going to have very powerful support.'' Munk, 80, founded Toronto-based Barrick in 1983 and made it the world's largest gold producer.
Gold has surged about 20 percent since Sept. 11 as investors shifted assets into precious metals as a haven after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson plans a rescue fund to allow banks to dispose of devalued assets such as mortgage-backed securities."

Monday, September 22, 2008

TNR Gold TNR.v drills 82.25 meters of 0.49% Copper at El Tapau

http://www.kitco.com/pr/1476/article_09222008174902.pdf

Canadian Junior Zinc play Mantle Resources MTS.v

What I like about the company: its focus on Zinc and Lead, and that its high grade deposit is based in BC Canada in a new mining district to be discovered by investment crowd.
1. Solid management: Varshney family is backing the project. Peeyush Varshney is CEO. Jim Mustard has joined the company last year after spending years as a VP and Senior Mining Analyst at Haywood Securities and literally seen hundreds of projects.
2. Location: BC Canada 24 mil tonnes of 7.6% Zinc and 1.5% Lead next to Cirque deposit of Tec Cominco and Korean Zinc J/V with 50 mil tonnes.
3. Value - Goods are in the ground: company is not loosing money during very low prices, deposit is open to expansion and drilling is under way. Company holds massive land package all along this region and around Tec Cominco/Korea Zinc claims. Blue sky potential of a new discovery could ignite the story.
4. Infrastructure requirements: Road has been built to the deposit and all major infrastructure is in place now for developing a mine.
5. Industry recognition: Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC has 10% stake in the company and is considering it its strategic investment.
6. Valuation: Check comparables in recent acquisitions:
7. Visibility: Company is very active in presenting itself to industry majors.
8. Financing availability: During recent collapse in the Junior mining MTS.v holded relatively well, announced financing at CAD0.90 is a vote of confidence in the developing story.
9. Insiders: Constantly buying in the market.
10. Catalyst: Company is an M&A target for industry majors looking for stable country risk and mining friendly environment projects with high leverage to Zinc prices.

Zinc contrarian play in the inflation bailout times. MTS.v

So now when we are back into negative real rates and inflation is coming on I believe Zinc is worth our attention. Last time demand has picked up in 2003 when zinc went ballistic until mid 2006. It is recovery play on inflation expectation. Bailout will bring liquidity, demand will be recovering in western world and will still be strong in emerging markets. The problem with the price was that it forecasted increasing of production and Zinc surplus in 2009-2010. With spot price as low as 0.75 US/lb Chinese companies start cut production. Huge deposits which were supposed to come online are not in the pipe any more. Ozernoe deposit in Russia with more then 150 million tones of Zinc ore were supposed to be build into mine for 600-800 mil dollars. Now Lundin Mining is going out of the project and price tag has risen to 1.5 billion. Lundin Mining is struggling with low prices and high operational cost in Euro. Huge deposits are situated in Iran, Afghanistan or in Africa. Will you be able to finance them now? With record low inventories we are getting into rising demand. Housing market in USA will recover one day and even if it will happen in 2010-2011 you will not put new mines online within this time. Rising price will bring attention back into this market, this time most interesting will be deposits in a stable political environment which could be financed into production with infrastructure in place. Consolidation in the industry will be also very important driver.

US Dollar victim status of Global Bailout aknowledged by main stream media

You can not spin this bailout as dollar positive any more, another important observation will be in place. Once financial system will be out of panic mode and functioning normally with healthy financial institutions money will start to flow back into emerging markets with strong underlying fundamentals for growth putting more pressure on falling US Dollar.

From Bloomberg:

Dollar May Get `Crushed' as Traders Weigh Up Bailout

"The combination of spending $700 billion on soured mortgage-related assets and providing $400 billion to guarantee money-market mutual funds will boost U.S. borrowing as much as $1 trillion, according to Barclays Capital interest-rate strategist Michael Pond in New York. While the rescue may restore investor confidence to battered financial markets, traders will again focus on the twin budget and current-account deficits and negative real U.S. interest rates."
"As we get to the other side of this, the dollar will get crushed,'' said John Taylor, chairman of New York-based International Foreign Exchange Concepts Inc., the world's biggest currency hedge-fund firm, which manages about $15 billion."

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Global Bailout: it is going to be a flood of money printed.

We need to find a bottleneck where to profit from these liquidity avalanche: Gold will appreciate against all FIAT currencies.

"Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said he's confident several countries will take steps comparable to the $700 billion plan he proposed to buy bad mortgage-related securities to address the global financial crisis."

Taxpayers are on the line: Cost of WallStreet Bailouts.

US Dollar is a FIAT currency (IOU in effect) and backed only by a perceived value of AAA rating of US Treasuries. For maintaining this highest investment rating is crucial Treasury's ability to manage US Corp. cash flow (current account deficit) and solvency of this corporation at any given time: ability to run budget deficit without rising questions of its creditors, which could decide that they do not like to finance this company any more or that they need higher interest (Yield) payed to reflect higher risk. Taxpayers are the source of revenue, they are paying taxes, they include people and corporations. Payables are US Budget expenses (including undisclosed military ones) and its interest payments on debt outstanding. Difference is a Budget Deficit which is financed by additional borrowing by means of selling new Treasuries.
After recent nationalisations US Corp took on its books some "assets" which nobody wanted and disposition of some of them could even bring all system to a hold, so it will be difficult to assume that Wall Street is so stupid and Treasury is so bright that Taxpayers will get any additional value in a near term to help them to hold the load of servicing rising US Debt and Budget Deficit.
What is the load of Wall Street bailing out and taxpayers liabilities now?
1. Bear Sterns - 29 billion.
2. Economic stimulus - 150 billion.
3. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - potentially 250 billion (5.4 trillion of mortgage debt is owned or guaranteed by the government now (5% total loss of portfolio).
4. AIG - 85 billion.
5. Wall Street Bailout - 700 billion.
All these money will be taxpayers liability in any case, but you need them now, so you have to sell more Treasuries now. More goods to sell, less buyers - price is going down, yield is going up. Additional interest payments are added to taxpayer burden. With short term rates determined by FED low and Markets rates determined by Treasuries markets rising we are in a Negative Real Rate zone. Value of your investments in deposits or Treasuries is eroded. Government effectively is reflating its economy, printing more money to make its obligations worth less and to repay them in a debased currency. Gold as ultimate store of value is showing the real rate of inflation against all FIAT currencies.
How long can you continue this game: until buyers are willing to pay their "hard currency" for US dollar nominated assets.
Treasury Bubble will be last to burst, but this bust will be of epic proportions and will put US Dollar in a waterfall mode again.

Price of Bailout: Treasuries Junk status and Golden opportunity.

Daily chart of 30 Year Treasury price is telling it all: rolling top is showing that buyers are demanding higher Yield and selling pressure is mounting. T Bills were trading almost at zero yield showing panic and flight to "quality" in frozen money markets in the middle of the week, after "bailout solution" these yields are sharply higher. The last resort of Reserve Currency of Choice - Treasuries are going to be downgraded to the Junk status by the market. It will not happen overnight, but we are getting there.
More and more voices heard about new financial security, the first nation to come out with Gold reserved currency could benefit enormously in this turmoil.
Bailout is the act of desperation. It is hard to think so looking at souring stock market in the last two days, but it is the reality. Government will buy out the worst assets from the system which has become worthless in the current markets and could bankrupt all US financial system.
Treasury Bubble is the last to burst with falling de facto Credit rating of USA Corp after taking on its balance sheet all this toxic waste from the banks. Inflation is here and can not be controlled in US at this moment, if you still believe that falling economy is always deflationary, just have look at Zimbabwe now or at Russia, or at Turkey in early 90s.
Tsunami of liquidity will make its way into the system it will not address systemic insolvency crises or derivative mess, it will only grease the wheels of a "free markets". Smart money will buy into strong underlying economics of Canada, Brazil, China, Australia and will take a protection in the form of Gold holdings. Countries with real Wealth reserves (contrary to systemic deficit in US) will build up their gold reserves and will continue to diversify out of dollars.

Gold: Short Selling by the Treasury appointed banks can not hide its shine in a Global Bailout.

You can manipulate markets only to a certain extend, now we know from the press that the world was on the doorstep to "meltdown of financial system" last week. Gold has finally decoupled from all baseless financial assets and FIAT currencies and showed a bold vote of confidence breaking out of down trend in one day gain of 85USD. Inflation in the form of extending money supply will flood the system, death clots will be taken out of veins main financial system and will allow to prevent total collapse. But while financials will be holding its domino together finding the way to unwind global derivative mess, Hard assets and Gold and Silver particularly will flourish in the Global Race for security, which is not associated any more with fallen "Rome", its currency and crippled corrupted financial system. After last week events short selling covering rally will be used by professionals to sell into strength and rise liquidity, more money will be allocated to Gold as protection in global portfolios - we are entering a new Bull Leg in the Gold market with Universal recognition of its Store of Value and Wealth in Inflationary times.

US Dollar Bailout Victim chart.


US Dollar is feeling the heat, "rally" has hit the roadblock and all this painted unprecedented manipulation in the "free" markets could become Bearish Flag pattern on the way to new lows. First intervention fueld short covering in the USD, then flight from other markets contributed to temporary dollar strength, global margin call in the weakest currency USD last week was the last dollar strength reserve. Tectonic shift in the market just before the "financial system meltdown" has send Gold 85 dollars higher returning its shine of the Save Haven of last resort, where US Dollar and Treasuries so spectacularly failed last Friday.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Credit Default Swaps real reason for Bailout. AIG, MER. LEH, GS

Educate yourself and find out why you should not touch any of the financials full of "PlayStation Kids Default Assumption" products:

"AIG’s Dangerous Collapse":

http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/amerman/2008/0917.html