Showing posts with label AUY. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AUY. Show all posts

Saturday, October 18, 2008

More signs of life in equities. Intel INTC expecting Sales to rise.

Strong Growth in China, strong Growth in Japan. I will not buy this stock - there are more appealing bargains in my commodities sector. But the story is interesting and it is talking about Asian economy health. Intel produces chips which are used mostly in Asian Electronics producing countries. Orders for chips are placed before production cycle and bullish guidance is very important: producers are not expecting End of the world in the next 6 months. Stock itself is like value play with 3.5% dividend. It is more then 10 year treasury bond! Another bullish sign of extreme valuations.
If you ask me what am I looking for: for more value: I do not like to be restricted to consumer even in Growing Developing markets. I like solid production cycle in infrastructure developments like Power plants in China and Electric grids in Russia, China and Brazil. Like pumps in Oil Pipelines. Markets up or down they will be built. What you need is Copper. Now Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc FCX is trading at 30 dollars with 6.5% dividend! Yamana Gold AUY is even more leveraged to the price of Copper.
So it is again ends with a Question is it the end of the world or a Buying opportunity of a lifetime?
Future rich and poor people are answering this question these days all over the world.

Gold: So much effort to show how it is Weak.


Next week will be very important. Will Gold perform Bullish Head and Shoulder Reversal pattern with LS at 777.70, Head at 739.8 and RS above 750? If the market will rally further into election after painted not without PPT help a Double Bottom reversal and public will listen to Mr Buffet, Treasuries will continue their bleeding and US Dollar will go down from its recent high. Gold is still holding the best in a recent financial melt down and at least part of the money will be allocated to its real safe Heaven status.
On another hand even Major Producers are beaten into the ground with General Equities as their is no tomorrow. They are screaming Buy if the Gold will hold at its Reversal.
If you Buy this theory GDX will be the best choice without stock picking efforts, othervise biggest in the sector Barrick Gold ABX and Newmont NEM will get attention first, Yamana Gold AUY is highly leveraged to copper recovery on Inflation Play in Americas.
Market will be surprised in this scenario by earnings Power of Gold producers now: Gold is holding well and all other cost base commodities with the most important OIL went down. Companies should show great margins from this last Q of operations.
Once it will show some life greed will come back into sector and the the only supply of Reserves will come into play - Juniors which are given for free right now like TNR Gold TNR.v and Bravo Venture BVG.v.