Monday, October 20, 2008

Gold, GDX and HUI, US Dollar and the market. AUY, SSRI, SLW, CZX.v, TNR.v

Warren Buffet is buying Equities, Jim Rogers is buying Commodities, I am in a very good company and buying Commodity Equities.
US Dollar has rallied today to the new high of 83.22. It has rallied contrary to all last days actions together with a big rally in General markets with Dow +4.67%, S&P +4.77% and Nasdaq +3.43. Is it because of Lehman settlement day? I am not sure, but the higher it goes the faster it will come back. Last time I gave such a comment was about Google GOOG riding to 700. Treasuries had a very volatile day and rallied in price together with markets.
But the real action was in Amex Gold Bugs Index HUI which is +9.38%
GDX +11.53%, AUY +11.3%, SSRI +17.75%, SLW +14.86%. Now we have last confirmation of continued Bull market in Gold: Gold miners took off before Gold and Silver. As I have mentioned it is important that Gold will confirm H&S Bullish reversal with RS at above 750USD.
Gold rallied in Asia to 810 and closed up 1.66% at 795 in NY. Silver was up 3.85% to 9.71.
As we have discussed before, public has a very short memory and we are now in an Election Rally. Greed is taking over the Fear and VIX is down almost 25% to 52.97. Actually this level of VIX over 50 was an entry point for a lot of professionals and Rally is only in its start phase.
Gold has rallied today even with US Dollar in a very strong rally, it has rallied against all FIAT currencies. Looks like FED do not like to have any chances and is preparing next Rate Cut.
Once Gold will cleared 800, HUI and GDX (trashed by forced selling into the levels of Gold at 500USD) with all Majors will be in a Rocket stage. Canadian Venture has shown some life with +4.1%. TSX was up 7.2%.
Positive emotions will spill over into the Juniors with 25-50% intraday rallies within next few weeks. Those who did not Sell will enjoy the Rally. You can not simply accumulate any meaningful position in this sector without driving the price. We were suffering the most, we will gain the biggest. M&A will be the driver of wealth creation with five and ten buggers to come into play again.
By the way all stimulus packagers are more then welcome: we need a lot of inflation fuel for our Bull in Gold, Silver and Commodities.

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