Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Google GOOG into the earnings, strategy update.

Google has reached first projected target of downside at 430 based on Free Cash Flow valuation. Now my estimations are that this bear market rally will be sold off, Google will show further deterioration in revenue and earnings growth and with mounting evidence that the company is not immune to other mortals' slow down in economy, Google's stock will take its way to next down target of USD360. If we see Free Cash Flow deterioration from my previous estimates stock will collapse below 350 in a matter of weeks.
Action now is on Capital preservation, reduction of leverage and accumulation in resource sector. Downside protection is established by PUTs on GOOG - bubble deflating, INTC - rosy picture of "meeting" reduced guidance, SMH - Consumer hit hard, chip producers will take the hit, GM - finance mess/ consumer, AMR - oil/security mess, C - write downs, AMZN margin squeeze/consumer. All chart show high probability of another leg down in this bear market. Lundin mining is under capital preservation plan until Congo will be resolved: Calls taken on FCX, sold with profit. Calls taken on LMS, sold with profit. Core positions reduced. Put taken for downside protection. Calls will be bought if stock will go below CAD7.00 More effective capital allocation could be achieved in Junior mining sector which has been bitten into the dust. Trading around macro picture with falling dollar and accumulating in core sectors will be most effective according to my results. Stock picking in Juniors will be the must: management, properties, ability to finance exploration and development. Sector will be ignited with junior acquisition by one of the majors, but do not forget to be solvent by that time. Profit is the profit and if in any doubt - stay on the line, nobody get bankrupt from a good night sleep.

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