Sunday, March 11, 2007

China has created SAFE way Agency to Invest Forex Reserves

I like Chinese, they can nail it down, today mostly their reserves consist of US treasures which are apparently considered UNSAFE: "China's central bank holds about 70 percent of its currency reserves in dollars and had a 2006 loss of 26 billion yuan ($3.4 billion) from exchange-rate movements, Standard Chartered Bank Plc's senior economist Stephen Green estimates." So they have found safe way to manage their reserves: "State Council had decided to divide the country's foreign exchange reserves into two parts: "normal" reserves and money to be used for investment seeking "more profits." The first part will be managed by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE)." Will they invest part of 1 trillion foreign reserves in Google or other "high growth expectation dreams" I doubt it, this money is not going to safe American Bull: they will continue what they are already doing: securing assets which will allow them feed the Dragon and grow Chinese economy: Canadian oil sands, African mineral assets with Copper and other metals, Australian Uranium, Russian gas: "They're not going to be looking for financial assets, but energy assets and natural resources, minerals — things China desperately needs," said Jing Ulrich of J.P. Morgan. " Commodities bull market will receive new healthy dose of adrenalin from this Strategic Investor, which will not get busted in leverage plays or sell with every rumor in the market, but will hold these assets for their real value - base for manufacturing production and infrastructure development in Asia. Who will benefit: companies with great management and developing asset base: Canadian oil sands play like Habanero resources HAO.v; Copper in Congo like Tenke mining; Copper, Zinc, Gold and Silver in Canada like Copper Fox Metals, Copper and Silver in Mexico like Capstone mining; quality gold and silver juniors like Avino Gold and Silver mines, Sterling mining and Mines management. This recent development means that US dollar will be under pressure once Chinese will reduce holding of their Treasury bills and will trade them for real assets. Real rates will go up because in order to sell new IOU Treasury will need to give more discount on its unsafe (according to Chinese Central Bank) goods - treasury bills. With falling nominal rates in order to reinflate economy from recession after housing bubble has busted we will be in the Negative Rates territory like in recession in 2002 and Gold and Silver will blossom again. Will this development happen to be catalyst of ignating new Bull Leg in Commodities, Gold and Silver mining companies shares after recent consolidation? We will see it in nearest future, but for sure it is very important positive development in these markets.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

China's move has nothing to do with the Quality of U.S. debt - which is very high by the way.

It has everything to do with d-i-v-e-r-s-i-f-i-c-a-t-i-o-n,
an ancient and honorable practice.

Sufiy said...

If it was very high real inrest rates will be very low, it can not be very high with very weak fundamentals: country and its citezenz became "Empire Of Debt".