Gold in America: TNR Gold Corp.: 100% Interest Negotiated on Shotgun Gold Project, Alaska TNR.v, NG.to, ABX, KGC, TCK, GG, NEM, BVN, AUY, MAI.to, GRC.to, NGQ.to, FCX, GDX, HUI, XAU

"CaseyResearch: Most Alaskan gold comes from only a handful of mines – and that tells you something about the size of the deposits being worked. The two largest mines, Fort Knox and Pogo, account for more than 80% of 2008 total gold production, or 640,000 ounces. The Kensington project, which started producing gold just a month ago, is set to become the third largest. Perhaps. But these mines are small potatoes compared to some of the current projects being advanced toward production. Given that a million ounces of contained gold is considered a large gold mine, Alaska’s major deposits are genuine monsters: Pebble has 107.3 million ounces of gold, Donlin Creek has 42.3 million, and Livengood has 19.7 million. If these go into production, Alaska will rank as one of the world’s top gold producers."

 

 "If you grow something - it takes time, energy and a lot of effort. Not all connections will be apparent at the first sight - you need to know what you are doing. Those who are in this Gold Bull market from its very beginning, remember that Barrick was always among those "hedgers who was playing by the music of anti gold cartel." Situation has changed, when the company announced its unloading of its hedging and now it will enjoy the leverage to the gold price, but the real party will be going where resources are - in junior mining sector. In order to have more understanding of the next steps to realise value in this stage of this Bull we need to do some digging. We will refer you to couple of our old post, which are relevant today even more than before."


  We hope that, finally, market will find out that TNR Gold has gold not only in its name, but holds now 100% of Shotgun Gold deposit in Alaska. With all recent cyber activity in the market we thought that there is no hope in justice for this junior and nobody will ever honor their word again. Nova Gold has proved us to be wrong here. We guess that such a deal took some time and we are raising our hat to the Nova Gold management, who fulfilled their commitment.
  Even more, apparently, they can see the value and upside in all assets of TNR Gold in Gold, Copper, Lithium and REE. The deal is done with shares and warrants of TNR Gold. Nova Gold was holding the stake in TNR Gold before and now they have increased it just under 10%. Whoever has been shaken the tree with automated selling, he will not be able to get any more cheap shares in this junior. Management and insiders hold 50% of the company. Among other shareholders is another major - Barrick Gold. Canada Zinc Metals holds a strategic stake in the TNR Gold and Chinese Togling is buying now more than 30% in CZX.v In this light, trip to China will be very interesting: TNR Gold holds REE project in Canada: Big Beaverhouse and with all recent publicity around REE, we can expect some new developments here as well.

  Update: Now CEO of TNR Gold is buying in the market as well.


  This Fall is going to be hot for this company: International Lithium has announced their upcoming trip to China and Europe with pre IPO financing and TNR Gold will have a full plate after spin off of International Lithium with this acquisition.
  Insiders are backing International Lithium valuation at 15 million CAD according to information circular and Shotgun, we think, could be north of 15 million as well, if we consider 15 USD per Oz on NON NI43-101 historical resource or double the NAV (8 million * 2 =16 Million CAD) according to industry standard valuation now.

  Los Azules and Escorpio IV legal case is a pure blue sky potential here for valuation of this company and all other properties will be an icing on the cake.

  By the way, Minera Andes is rising with volume last few days as well - something is brewing on over there. Normally, before real estate agent will bring his clients house will be cleaned.
  We are so much fed up with this illegal practice of junior miners stocks manipulation in Canada, that will notice one more time: even today on the up tick and the volume up Scotia was hitting on the bids with 500 shares trade. It is not the way to sell - you would sit on the ask in a rising market, but the way to suppress the price and wait others to sell at this lower level: it was happening last few days. And today at the close Scotia proudly hit the bid with 500 just to show the closing lower - at 0.185CAD.

Recent Trades - Last 10 of 64


Time ET Ex Price Change Volume Buyer Seller Markers

15:59:01 V 0.185 0.01 500 33 Canaccord 85 Scotia K

15:56:34 V 0.19 0.015 340 80 National Bank 59 PI E

15:50:51 V 0.19 0.015 500 99 Jitney 1 Anonymous K

15:43:39 V 0.185 0.01 4,000 33 Canaccord 1 Anonymous K

15:34:07 V 0.185 0.01 500 33 Canaccord 85 Scotia K

15:28:09 V 0.185 0.01 9,000 7 TD Sec 9 BMO Nesbitt K

15:14:55 V 0.19 0.015 10,000 2 RBC 1 Anonymous K

15:04:35 V 0.19 0.015 5,000 7 TD Sec 1 Anonymous K

15:02:08 V 0.19 0.015 8,000 79 CIBC 79 CIBC K

15:02:08 V 0.19 0.015 12,000 79 CIBC 1 Anonymous K


  We would caution hot heads from this "mysterious hedge fund" specialising in illiquid juniors with market cap under 20 mil - you can lose you pants here and will not shake out Nova Gold, Canada Zinc Metals and Barrick Gold with insiders. IR has told us that they have informed TSX and Exchange is monitoring the situation.

  We are not certified to provide any valuation, so you will have to divide the value on the number of shares outstanding by yourself here.

  But lets dig up the asset - Shotgun:

  Technical Report on the Shotgun - Winchester project, SW Alaska.

Please, do not forget, that we own stocks we are writing about and have position in these companies. We are not providing any investment advise on this blog and there is no solicitation to buy or sell any particular company here. Always consult with your qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

TNR Gold Corp.: 100% Interest Negotiated on Shotgun Gold Project, Alaska

Press Release Source: TNR Gold Corp. On Thursday September 30, 2010, 8:00 am EDT

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Sept. 30, 2010) - TNR Gold Corp. ("TNR" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:TNR - News) is pleased to announce an increase to a 100% undivided ownership interest in the Shotgun project in Southwestern Alaska (the "Property") through the acquisition of NovaGold Resources Inc.'s ("NovaGold" or the "Vendor") outstanding 50%.

Key Highlights:

-- Acquires NovaGold's 50% interest in the Property to increase it's ownership to 100%;

-- 6,000,000 shares and 3,000,000 warrants in the Company for consideration of NovaGold's 50% interest;
-- Shotgun Ridge contains a Non NI43-101 historical resource of 980,000 ounces grading 0.93 g/t(i);

-- 210.5 metres grading 1.29 g/t Au at Shotgun Ridge indicates higher grade feeder zone open at depth; and
-- $8 million spent on the project to date by the Company and previous operators.

"The Shotgun property is a major gold asset and the successful unification of a 100% interest translates into a significant increase in inherent value for the Company," states Gary Schellenberg, CEO - TNR Gold Corp. "The current economic climate is ideal for the advancement of a project such as this and we look forward to the opportunity to realize its potential."

NovaGold has agreed to sell its remaining 50% participating interest in the Property (the "Interest") to the Company in consideration for receiving an aggregate of 6 million common shares and 3 million share purchase warrants in the capital of the Company. In addition, a 2% net smelter returns royalty from mineral products produced from the Property will be granted to the Vendor by the Company, which can be purchased by the Company for USD 5 million any time prior to a production decision having been made.

Each share purchase warrant shall entitle the Vendor to acquire one common share in the capital of the Company for a period of three years following the completion of the purchase and sale of the Interest (the "Closing Date") at a price of C$0.20 per share from the Closing Date until the date which is one year from the Closing Date, at a price of C$0.25 per share from the date which is one year and one day from the Closing Date until the date which is two years from the Closing Date and at a price of C$0.30 per share thereafter until the expiry date.

Shotgun Project

The Shotgun project is located 175 kilometres south of Donlin Creek within the Kuskokwim Gold Belt in Southwestern Alaska, an area emerging as a world-class gold district hosting more than 40 million ounces of aggregated gold resources. The Shotgun project includes a number of prospects, including Shotgun Ridge and nearby Winchester. Donlin is an intrusion-associated system and represents one of the largest undeveloped gold deposits in the world. The Company believes that there are several key similarities between prospects in the Shotgun Project area and that of the Donlin Creek gold deposit as well as other intrusion associated deposits.

Previous work at Shotgun Ridge by NovaGold has estimated a historical resource of 980,000 ounces grading 0.93 gram per tonne (g/t) at a cut-off of 0.5 g/t(i).

The Company built on NovaGold's previous exploration work on Shotgun Ridge and a subsequent drill program in early 2006 reported a 210.5 metre intersection grading 1.29 g/t Au, which has led to the identification of two higher grade feeder zones and leaves the mineralization open at depth. This discovery intersection has yet to be followed up and an updated NI43-101 compliant resource has yet to be estimated. To date there has been 4,095 metres of drilling at Shotgun Ridge.

(i)(Not a NI43-101 compliant resource. A qualified person has not done sufficient work to classify the historical estimate as current mineral resources, the issuer is not treating the historical estimate as current mineral resources and the historical estimate should not be relied upon. This resource estimate is quoted from the Technical Report on the Shotgun-Winchester Project, SW Alaska. 7 March 2008 and available on www.sedar.com).

The Winchester zone is an underexplored intrusion-associated gold prospect situated approximately 16 km south of Shotgun Ridge. The full extent of mineralized sills and dykes at Winchester is unknown since only 1.5 kilometres out of the 8 kilometre long ridge, host to numerous unexplained gold geochemical anomalies, has been explored in detail. Drilling during 2005 and 2006 identified gold-bearing sills in the eastern end of the Winchester zone. To date there has been 1,653 metres of drilling at Winchester.

Although the style of gold mineralization in sills at Winchester is quite different from the quartz-breccia stockwork that hosts the gold at Shotgun Ridge, the two prospects are geochemically very similar and are considered to be part of the same overall system. TNR believes a major structural axis, encountered in several drill sections, is critical to the mineralization and runs parallel to the ridge at Winchester. The next phase of exploration at Winchester will extend into the untested area along the ridge to the west in the direction of the structural axis.

The other two prospects that make up the Shotgun property are Shot and King. Shot contains some of the strongest geochemical anomalies on the Property and needs to be tested for similar mineralization to that found at Winchester. King includes several unexplained geochemical anomalies as well as a drill ready breccia zone.

John Harrop, P.Geo, is the company's qualified person on the project as required under NI 43-101 and has reviewed the technical information contained in this press release.

ABOUT TNR GOLD CORP. / INTERNATIONAL LITHIUM CORP.

The Company is a diversified international metals exploration company focusing on the continued advancement of existing properties and identifying and acquiring new prospective projects. The Company has a portfolio of 18 active projects, of which 9 rare metals projects, including Mariana, will be held or optioned to the Company's wholly owned subsidiary International Lithium Corp upon completion of a proposed plan of arrangement.

The objective of the proposed plan of arrangement is to spin out the Company's rare metals property interests into a separate public company, International Lithium Corp. This proposed plan of arrangement has been approved by the Company's shareholders and the courts of British Columbia. The Company will now proceed with the spin out and will provide updates on the progress of the spinout in further news releases. For further details of the spinout, please refer to Stockwatch news dated May 26, 2010, or visit International Lithium's website.

The recent acquisition of lithium, other rare metals and rare-earth elements projects in Argentina, Canada, USA and Ireland confirms the combined companies' commitments to generating projects, diversifying its markets, and building shareholder value.

On behalf of the board,

Gary Schellenberg, President

CUSIP: #87260X 109

SEC 12g3-2(b): Exemption #82-4434

Statements in this press release other than purely historical information, historical estimates should not be relied upon, including statements relating to the Company's future plans and objectives or expected results, are forward-looking statements. News release contains certain "Forward-Looking Statements" within the meaning of Section 21E of the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions and are subject to all of the risks and uncertainties inherent in the Company's business, including risks inherent in resource exploration and development. As a result, actual results may vary materially from those described in the forward-looking statements.

Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release."

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  We know Avino Silver for years and we have only one problem with this company - their goal "Resume production as quickly as possible" is in the market for the last five years at least. So far progress was very slow at least. But it is a junior mining silver play, even with sleeping management silver will not be able to slip from the company's property. Question is how much do they actually have? In the beginning of Silver boom years ago they had some kind of a huge bogus number posted of historical resources, which have disappeared with more strict reporting. Now we think with resent silver prices everything with the word silver could fly and Avino Silver definitely has some goods. The most important is that its Mill could justify market value of the company alone. We are pleased to see, finally, good results from ongoing exploration program.

"Avino Silver & Gold Mines is an experienced, Vancouver based mining and exploration firm with properties in Mexico and Canada.

The company's primary goal is to reactivate the Avino silver-gold-copper-zinc-lead mine in Mexico, which Avino operated for 27 years beginning in 1974. Low metal prices and the closure of a key smelter forced the operation to close in 2001.

Current metal markets and high-grade discoveries on the property's San Gonzalo vein have greatly improved the economics and feasibility for potential production.

Since 2007, Avino has invested in extensive rehabilitation and modernization of the mill. A 10,000-tonne bulk sample in 2010 is expected to move the project closer to a production decision.

Our key objectives for 2010:

Execute the San Gonzalo bulk sample program.

Continue developing the San Gonzalo resource

Resume production as quickly as possible

Expand resources, reserves and the mines output

Identify and explore new targets on the property

Avino also holds precious metals properties in British Columbia and the Yukon Territory.

Stockwatch:

Avino samples 0.8 m of 5,522 g/t Ag at San Gonzalo

2010-09-28 12:13 ET - News Release

Mr. David Wolfin reports

AVINO ASSAYS UP TO 0.80 M OF 5,522 G/T AG & 1.304 G/T AU AT SAN GONZALO

Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. has released an update of the continuing underground development at its San Gonzalo project at the Avino property in Durango, Mexico.

Avino's mine contractor, DMG, has been driving two declines, the upper level 1 (2,306-metre elevation) and lower level 2 (2,260-metre elevation). Both levels intersected the San Gonzalo vein, level 2 has intersected the San Gonzalo vein and a splay vein. These are known as San Gonzalo vein 1 (SG1) and San Gonzalo. They are shown on a plan map on Avino's website.

DMG drifted along both San Gonzalo and San Gonzalo 1 on both levels 1 and 2. To the northwest, both levels broke into the old San Gonzalo workings and DMG is now driving a raise to connect the two levels.

Avino is pleased with the minable widths and excellent grades found to date on SG1 in its underground development program. Avino has now outlined the areas on the San Gonzalo vein 1 where stope preparation for production will commence in the next few days. As shown on the plan map on Avino's website the results shown in the attached table are from west to east."

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  CS. We will conduct the brave scientific experiment today with our own money, as usual, and will try to decipher the the recent FED actions, Quants and derivatives with our common sense. Along the way we will study the connection between the Federal Reserve and Federal Express and why we have missed our bail out cheque in the mail. FedEx must be given the wrong address. Our special English will keep our personal charm and hint to our outsider status and mountainous location, who knows - maybe we can see the parts of a bigger picture and have missed some simple explanations from FOX and CNBC.

  With traders coming back from holidays, it is time to look at the potential catalyst to reward us for our patiently acquired collection in Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc and Lithium.

  One of the major catalyst which can trigger redistribution of liquidity is on the chart above. We have a Sell signal in long term Treasuries. Maybe, our Treasuries Bubble is really ready to pop this time. Bear market, upcoming crash and Deflation are so much advertised now that it is time to take a contrarian approach again and take the side of the FED.

  As you remember, you can never find any investment advise on this blog - you are always welcome to read our travel notes - but today we have to warn you particularly. Our investment thesis has a one, but mortal flaw - if we are wrong and Deflation will beat the FED with Mr. Bernanke and his shareholders - we do not know what to do. And the most dangerous part of it is that it will not be important any more even for us. US Corp does not have a luxury of "lost decades" like Japan - it will be teared apart by internal and external forces, when the coming war will be seen as a relief even by the population sacrificed in it. It is history; but we will not go there.

  We will share one free, but very expensive advise here - before the end of the world, time will come to pay your bills and not once. Let's concentrate on our circle of competence: what we can change and try to position ourselves in case if somebody will manage to get all of us from headlines about Deflation and into the Inflation stage.

  We will be looking at the signs - footprints - left in the charts, volume and direction will be the confirmation of our ideas and you can always make your own opinion.

  FED is as Federal as Federal Express - it is a business, we are out of politics and will consider only the business opportunity. We think that the credit cycle is done and it is time to start the new one:

1. Credit expansion was finished during Lehman weekend. Liquidity has dried out and we had our hell in the basket. We were bailed out - if you did not received your cheque in the mail - you are reading this blog now.

2. Debt was cured by debt and US Corp has added 1 trillion of additional debt in a record time: just within few months. Total Public Debt outstanding now is over 13 trillion and we will not even go into the total outstanding obligations, which are over 100 trillion now.

3. In order to make all this exercise profitable you need that the system survived: after redistribution of property you need your debtors to be able to service their debts.

4. There is no point to run all this loan book at zero rate even at these magnitude: rates will go higher, in balance - not to kill those, who will be paying the interest.

5. Deflation will be defeated in this scenario by printing press or QE in the Twitter age.

6. US Dollar will be the victim.

7. In the end we all will pay for it - it is not the charity - even after some, hopefully, this time  targeted liquidity distributions to the population, price to be paid will be in inflation: diminishing purchasing power of US Dollar and cuts in Services (police, schools etc.) and Social Spending (pensions, medicare etc. (those another 100 trillion of US Corp. unfunded outstanding obligations above 13 Trillion national debt)).

8. During this exercise Treasuries Bubble will be popped and the shift in liquidity will drive other asset classes: FED will begin its "fight" against inflation.

9. Not everything will be going to the moon - the developed world could be in stagflation for a number of years: it is a period of anemic growth with rising inflation.

10. We need to position ourselves in places where liquidity will go in order to acquire the real wealth for its owners. Here, as Warren Buffett teaches us, we need to have a margin of safety - we need to go where all of the above will trigger bottlenecks on the Supply/Demand side and, ideally, could provide not only wealth preservation like Gold, but new technological solutions which will affect our economy as a whole and almost every individual - here our choices are Electric Cars and Lithium with Rare Earth Elements as the material base for this new technology.

  But back to our charts and do not forget: maybe you will see different picture there.

  On the chart above we have another powerful formation in case of confirmation of our Sell Signal in long term treasuries. TLT could be signaling the formation of a double top with a very strong reverse pattern, which means higher yields and lower treasury prices. It means that FED is ready to QE 2.0 Among the anecdotes from the market place, explaining this technical footprint in the market, we will mention:

1. China is selling Treasuries and buying into the Japan and Korean bonds.

2. Serious talk on CNBC about 100 year bonds.

3. Record low yields in treasuries with record high corporate cash balances.

4. Corporations like IBM and Johnson&Johnson among others issuing record low yield bonds and slashing their interest payments.

5. M&A activity in growth sectors: BHP and Potash, Dell and HP bidding war for 3Par, deals in the Gold sector and Lithium.

6. Record outflows from equity funds into bond funds. Investors are primed for another blood bath - this time in "safe" bonds.

7. China holding record amount of treasuries and US Dollar denominated assets is the interesting combination with idea of national security, but we do not bank on Crash - gradual collapse in US Dollar will do the trick: 7% inflation in the real terms will slash the debt by almost 50% within next eleven years.

 

"Jim Sinclair’s Commentary September, 8, 2010

The US dollar is teetering on the edge of a really ugly technical formation.
This time the round number of .8000 is not critical, but instead meaningless.
An approach to .8000 only means that .7200 and the old lows are coming into play"

  US Dollar above confirms this thesis with the same powerful double top formation. Here the most important fact is that QE 2.0 and stimulus 2.0 will be started from this point on US Dollar history line and with Gold at the record high on the chart below. FED has a number of ways to create necessary liquidity now and address Deflation scare:

1. Inflation by definition is the expanding monetary base: rising prices and declining purchasing power of the FIAT currency is the consequence. We have more money chasing the same amount of goods and services produced by the economy.

2. This time even official unemployment is too close to tipping point: stimulus 2.0 will be announced within next weeks and will address jobs creation.

3. There are numerous ways to give liquidity to particular households, even if banking system "hoarding the cash." Ideally liquidity should go into the productive hands of the middle class: they are buying goods and services and will be able to continue to service their debts further.

4. Payroll tax holiday - elegant solution, widely discussed now.

5. Bomb for elections and for the market: extension of Tax Cuts.

6. News today about R&D taxes - interesting in a sense that at least part of the money will be spend on the productive technological advance in ailing economy.

7. We are advocating here for Electric Cars as the basis for the new industrial revolution and creation of high tech manufacturing jobs in U.S. Program includes: federal and state tax rebates for EV buyers (existing), battery and EV developments DOE grants (existing), EV charging infrastructure development DOE grants (existing on a very low scale), comprehensive program to introduce electric cars on a mass market scale (bill is in the Senate), US Resource Development Corp. like Japanese JOGMEC to develop supply of strategic resources like Lithium and Rare Earth Elements (still not addressed apart from some slow motion movement in understanding this problem).

8. 50 billion Infrastructure Development Plan announced today, hopefully it will incorporate some of the above.

"The car is the second largest purchase after the house for the middle-class. It is never really an investment in contrast to the house (according to the logic before the Crash - a house was an investment). Electric cars allow to sell the second biggest item in the household "second time". Family gets an instant cash flow adjustment with electric cars economics: 2.5 cent cost per mile against 12 cents in conventional vehicle (CV). The government gets the opportunity to send money to consumers to fight the Deflation Death Spiral and take it away into the value food chain, hopefully belonging to the domestic production cycle.

The way of doing it - stimulus for production in order to bring prices down, like today, and direct Tax Rebates on purchases of EVs - which are already in place. With the GM Volt battery strategy, the price for EVs will quickly reach the same level as for a CV, and in this situation the Electric Car could become an investment in the household balance sheet as it will be producing "an alternative income" relative to cost of ownership of CV. Here is our "adjusted" cash flow. Third, why do we think it could happen at all? About it Obama, here."

  When Glenn Beck talks about Gold on Fox - we are getting cautious, when Jim Cramer screams Buy - we would run away just a few years ago. We are not in the first year of this bull, but fundamentals are still on its side.

"S&P Says US Should Act to Protect AAA-Rating: Report. This chart of long term treasuries looks very nasty - Gold smells this trouble - what will happen with the price of goods with unlimited supply? Economy gives no other choice than to Inflate pumping the liquidity by QE, and the US Dollar will be among the casualties."

  There is still a lot of power in this bull. Reversed head and shoulders formation has been resolved in the upside break out and now we have another potential break out with Cup and Handle formation.

"1. We are in a new Bull market territory, with Gold moving up against all FIAT currencies.

2. Corporate default was exchanged on sovereign one - all bailouts were not more than transferring obligations from failed banks and other Corporations to the public finance. Bonuses were left with bankers, losses were privatised with public. Now we have on outskirts of Europe with less than 4% of EU GDP fireworks, which are supposed to end Euro legacy in wain. But don't rush to trash the Euro yet. The sovereign default is very different from corporate one. If the debt is issued in local currency it could be always printed more in order to repay it. U.S. Corp. is living in this space for years, the UK is there and Europe will have to decide and move in support of Greece to prevent the run on the bank and collapse of the following PIIGS members.

3. Expect shakeouts, but the direction in Gold market is clear: further Up - driven by run from all FIAT currencies, rising interest rates, generational Bear market in Treasuries, negative real rates and expansion in monetary base (QE) with inevitable by definition Inflation. And we have to pray for it - we do not know how to survive in the dreaded Deflation Spiral should anybody made a mistake at a crucial turn.

4. First Gold will make new all-time high, second will be M&A play: Majors will shop for Juniors with resources in the ground. Here is the double-game - Gold is moving up and Majors' production and Reserve Base is going down. If you like more leverage you are welcome to Silver market. Place to be is in stories will strong management, growing resources and stable political situations. Markets will be volatile by all means and political tensions will be driving this Gold Bull as well."

  Next couple of weeks will be very important for Silver and Gold market: all announcements by Obama about new economic initiatives should confirm Bernanke's "We will use everything what is necessary". It should translate into sell off in treasuries, lower Yen against the US Dollar and lower US Dollar against the other currencies. Silver should break out to the upside above USD 20/Oz confirming Gold upside move. There is always a risk of open market operations in Gold and Silver markets to show that the FED is in control of inflation situation. It will provide another buying opportunity. Triggered selling addressing "lower risk of economic recovery" will be met by buyers diversifying out of FIAT currencies in the new credit expansion cycle. Word inflation first will come to you with your grocery bills and insurance premiums and later in the headlines. If you can understand Australian language you can check their press and BOA Cash Rate of 4.5% and Inflation which is already there with official 3.1%.

"Gold bears always mention Silver non-confirmation of the recent Gold Bull Run - and they are right up to the certain point. Gold performs its function as a real wealth preservation in both Inflationary and Deflationary environments. Silver, with its industrial usage in electronics, needs more conviction that the FED will win its battle against Deflation Death Spiral and Inflation will be in the headlines for years to come. It is time for us to write up on our Silver squad from our Summer 2010 Top Picks."

  Time is to come to the most important sector for us now - Lithium and Rare Earth Elements. We are using above SQM as a semi proxy for the sector. Stock shows very strong move to the upside this summer even considering deflation scare and dreadful August for the most markets. For us it is an indication that institutional money are positioning themselves in this sector.

"We have been proudly running Gold Bull for nearly ten years now: Gold first, than Majors and follow up on Junior side. We were always wondering about Future of Energy and have collected some great memories on Uranium Run, Solar and Water plays. Gold Bull has years to run, but we are searching constantly for new Macro trends - it is very interesting to find out what will be the next Bull which will come out of these rubbles in case we are right and Inflation will be the answer to the Deflation war scenario. It is time for Lithium to come into picture.

  Lithium is the leveraged play on Peak Oil and rising Oil price with coming Inflation. Sector is very small and market is even more smaller - everything is ready for the parabolic move in case of supporting fundamentals.

  Recent Oil Spill shows the real price for Oil and leaves no doubt for us that there will be no more cheap oil: offshore drilling is costly now, it will be even more costly later. Relatively cheap Oil is in the hands of state owned companies in not so friendly to U.S. places. Oil squeeze will come from diminishing production rates and rising Inflation. The move will be even more explosive than in the Gold market - in the end only minority of people is effected by the gold price even now, Oil is the underlining of all Western Energy Diet. It is not sustainable. Emerging markets are taking more and more share of world wide production, oil producing countries are spending more at home. If you account all cost to produce, deliver and protect Oil supply to U.S. corp the price is already above 150 USD/barrel."

Peak Oil theory moves from status of almost conspiracy theory and into the official government reports:

"Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis

More on Peak Oil:
 
This year we have quite a few warnings already about Peak Oil from main stream economists, universities, US military and government agencies all around the world. The question now is not if, but when is it going to happen.

We have time still, but it is running out very fast. After a certain point in the oil price increase the only concern we are going to have about Electric Cars will be their availability on a mass scale to preserve our way of life and freedom."

  In the last weeks we had a very important confirmation of returning risk appetite and liquidity coming into the junior mining sector. Most of our Summer 2010 Picks have been breaking to the upside already, finally reflecting the fundamentals and catching up with Gold, Silver, Copper and Zinc prices and Majors' valuations. M&A deals like in Potash, Gold, Zinc and Lithium to name a few, will drive this process further. Junior mining companies are holding resources, which majors are ready to buy to keep up their production rate - trading premium for time and risk developing them.

  "As you know, we are going with our money where the supply chain begins in Lithium with Junior mining companies.

It's much more risky, but the reward is based on a very high leverage of exploration and development plays in these micro cap companies. If our investment thesis is wrong or we chose the wrong company, the end game will be brutal to our investment outcome - therefore you have to know what you are doing. Today we will discuss our lithium hit list below: all these companies are in the Byron Capital Lithium Index and we own these stocks or have owned them before. The game here is based on the combination of the rising price of underlining commodity (Lithium Bull this time), multiplied by the developments in this particular junior: exploration discoveries and resource definition with strategic partners involved and up to the M&A as it happened with Salares Lithium recently.

As usual, please do not forget that we do not provide any investment advise on this blog."

 

  As you already know, our top pick in Lithium space is TNR Gold with its coming spin out of International Lithium. You have Copper, Gold and Lithium in one portfolio of properties holding by this one company. Do your own DD particularly here - we have a position in the company - nothing should be taken as an investment advise here, we are biased, but you can still find a lot of information about the company on this blog.

  The company is followed now by Jay Taylor and Richard Mills. The stock is building its upward momentum from the recent double bottom this summer, and after announced developments on its major lithium brine project in Argentina. Insiders are buying more shares and the company is raising capital for its pre IPO financing. Investors coming on board will give us another hint on the future development of this company. The most important value play will be in TNR Gold's ability to position the International Lithium portfolio of properties among strategic partners in order to rapidly advance Mariana into development stage and make a consolidation of projects in Nevada for US based Lithium development play.

  Now Mariana becomes a very sizable project among other lithium brines in Argentina. Company talks about "New claim secures prospective land area for potential future processing plant facility" - management seems to be carefully considering its options before International Lithium spin out with major focus on Mariana lithium brine in Argentina. It will be very important to see investors coming on board in pre IPO financing. With recent M&A activity in the lithium space company has a very strong position to attract strategic partners from the A-list of lithium end users.

TNR Gold Corp.: 33% Increase in Project Area to 160 Square Kilometres, Mariana Lithium Brine Project, Argentina

"We have another hint into the recent M&A activity in Lithium space. Talison deal with Salares Lithium confirms real Chinese appetite for Lithium. Now it is time for Lithium Supply - China already controls 97% of Rare Earths market. Lithium output will be increased fivefold in Chinese Lithium province, but the real news is below from Reuters - it is only half of previously expected output and now Chinese companies are on the shopping spree among lithium developers. Who will be at the boardroom table next - only a few lithium brines plays are left without J/V partners and we are following here two of them: International Lithium and Rodinia Lithium. We expect M&A activity in lithium space to be continued during this summer months."

  Rodinia Lithium is an another junior mining lithium developer on our M&A screen. The stock was recently under pressure and is still in its consolidating pattern. Recently, the company's president has left the company and a few phone calls are warranted to understand the situation and who is backing the company now. The company is raising 5 mil announced financing and its portfolio includes lithium brines in Argentina and Nevada. It was recently on a media roll out promoting its story:

"One of the lithium exploration and development companies that is moving as fast as possible to capitalize on the burgeoning demand for lithium, particularly in the United States, is Rodinia Lithium Inc. (TSX: V.RM, Stock Forum).

The company’s President William Randall believes that a supply squeeze is on the horizon, and this 21st century metal will becomes an increasingly “strategic commodity” for the U.S. industrial sector. This is why Rodinia wants to help ramp-up future lithium supplies in the U.S. by developing America’s next prospective lithium mine."

We will remind you a few rules of a safe travelling. Always check the map and be sure where you would like to go. Never be in a rush, do your own DD, there are plenty of companies to chose from according to your appetite for risk and potential reward. Watch electric cars videos and spread the word, maybe a sticker on your car "I am waiting for my Electric Car" will be your best investment in our green future. You will not miss anything - we will report to you our travelling experience, chasing the bubbles along the way.

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"Finally S&P found about California and US Corp., for Chinese it is the old news already - they are selling US Treasuries and buying Japan and Korean Bonds instead. Small change goes into the Copper, Zinc, Potash and Lithium along the way. Now we have another catalyst for the Gold price, which is silently moving to the all-time-high again. This chart above looks very nasty - Gold smells this trouble - what will happen with the price of goods with unlimited supply? Economy gives no other choice than to Inflate pumping the liquidity by QE, among the casualties will be US Dollar."

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Credit Suisse: Brace Yourself For $10,000 Copper TNR.v, MAI.v, CZX.v, LUN.to, FCX, CUU.v, RVM.v, BHP, RTP, AUY, BVN

In a Copper space we are following development of Los Azules with Minera Andes and TNR Gold lawsuit boardroom games. With every uptick in Copper price NPV of the los Azules is going up, keeping everybody involved closely watching the letigation outcome:

"Great news for all Minera Andes shareholders: according to Rob McEwen, the  company is undervalued and Los Azules represents "a huge copper deposit in Argentina". Maybe it is time to clear the property title of the project from legal claims by TNR Gold and move forward? With the looming copper shortage according to some sources, this Copper/Inflation play could become a company builder in the markets when printing presses will provide upside for all commodity plays. We did not understand why Minera Andes did not accepted the back in right by TNR Gold and lost opportunity to consolidate the project and secure a very important Escorpio IV property, where according to Minera Andes mining plan part of mining facilities supposed to be located, but Rob McEwen must has his own strategy. With this kind of presentation it will be not cheap any more to settle out of the court, but it is always better then drag such a project in litigation for years to come."

China is the name of the Commodity M&A game now, Chinese Tongling recently aquired more than 30% of Canada Zinc Metals above the market with more than 25% premium now.

Now we have Credit Swiss talking about Copper and the other base metals with upside of 30% - 100% in the coming years. Robert Friedland is pushing Green Copper with electric cars and Lithium as well:

"From all that you would expect him to bullish on the outlook for copper. He is a major bull.

Friedland pointed out that the while the world mined 585 million tonnes of copper metal from 1900 to 2008, it will need to mine 600 million tonnes of copper in the next 20 years alone, assuming 3 per cent global economic growth.

''Frankly, those of us in the business have no idea where this metal is actually going to come from,'' he told delegates.

 

But more importantly, Friedland reckons that the forecast need for 600 million tonnes of copper over the next 20 years not including the demand to come from the ''phenomenon'' of electric cars. He believes that hybrid cars are old news. The world will shift its car fleet over to lithium battery-powered electric over the next 20 to 30 years or so, waving goodbye to reliance on Middle East oil supplies at the same time.

Good news for those chasing lithium as the next big thing. But don't forget copper, Friedland added."

Business Insider:


Credit Suisse: Brace Yourself For $10,000 Copper

Vincent Fernando, CFA Credit Suisse's metals analyst Michael Shillaker is aiming high with his copper price estimate -- as in $10,000-per-ton high. In comparison, copper recently traded for about $7,390 per ton on the London metals exchange.

What will drive this copper spike? A Chinese economic acceleration starting at the end of 2010, and then continuing through 2011.

Metal Miner:

Looking as much at shares as metal prices, although obviously the two are linked, he says the Chinese economy will be the next catalyst for the out performance of mining shares, similar to those witnessed in 2001, 2005, 2007 and 2009. Not only will China increase demand through 2011 and into 2012 but demand “normalization” in the rest of the world will add fuel to the fire, “We still think that copper will reach $10,000 a ton by 2012 and relatively simple supply-demand analysis supports this.”

Image via WikipediaHe's thus an uber-mining bull:

Including iron ore and coal in his discussion, Mr Shillaker predicted share prices have considerable upside potential, “We believe there is 30% upside potential to current share prices for the miners into year-end and in some cases potentially more than 100% upside over the next two to three years,” he is quoted as saying.

Metal Miner thinks, that for copper at least, Credit Suisse's view isn't that crazy:

Copper inventory has been falling for much of this year as this Reuters graph shows, even though this is usually the cyclical summer re-stocking period.

...

Other metals do not share the same robust fundamentals as copper so although both equity and commodity markets are showing a lot of correlation this is likely to be a temporary alignment and given some months and a return of risk appetite, those metals with the better supply-demand fundamentals such as copper, nickel and dare we say even aluminum, looking further out, will reassert themselves."

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