Silver Wheaton SLW - rocket is ready to launch with Silver break out. SLV, SLW, SST.v

Still a lot of IF here, but if Silver will break out on Gold Move above MA200, this company will pay handsomely: it was almost crashed into the ground by its leverage to Silver price and debts, it will fly with Silver close to 15 again.

Silver Standard Resources SSRI - silver is still there and production is close.

Silver Standard Resources SSRI - silver is still there and production is close.

US Dollar is a chosen victim of bailouts. GDX, AUY, SSRI, SLW

You do not need any enemies with such friends as Hank and Ben. Quantitative Easing is the name of the game now and US Dollar will suffer like a Yen during the same medicine in Japan. But it is the only medicine to by some time and get out of Deflation spiral, Inflation is the answer to all debts to be fading away with value of money.

"U.S. Details $800 Billion Loan Plans

"WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve and the Treasury announced $800 billion in new lending programs on Tuesday, sending a message that they would print as much money as needed to revive the nation’s crippled banking system...

...In the last year, the government has assumed about $7.8 trillion in direct and indirect financial obligations. That is equal to about half the size of the nation’s entire economy and far eclipses the $700 billion that Congress authorized for the Treasury’s financial rescue plan. ...


...The long-term risks are enormous but difficult to estimate. They begin with the danger of a new surge of inflation, at least after the economy comes out of its current downturn. Beyond that, taxpayers will have to pick up the losses from loans that default or guarantees that have to be made good.
But the most troublesome unknowns are how the maze of protections for investors and consumers will change economic and political behavior in the future...

...The new actions are unlikely to be the last. Until the economy begins to turn around, Fed officials have made it clear they are prepared to print as much money as needed to jump-start lending, consumer spending, home buying and investment...

...To bolster the general economy, it relied on its traditional tool: reducing the overnight Federal funds rate, the interest rate that banks charge for lending their reserves to one another. Normally, a lower Federal funds rates leads to lower long-term rates, like those for mortgages.
But the central bank has already lowered the rate to 1 percent, and it cannot reduce it below zero. Instead, policy makers are buying up other kinds of debt securities, which has the effect of driving down the rates in those parts of the market.
The move amounts to what economists refer to as “quantitative easing,” which means having the Fed pump staggering amounts of money into the economy by buying up a wide range of debt instruments..."

DOW DIA is at a very important H&S Reversal point, time for Action. CS, FXI, EWZ, GDX.

We can see from the chart that we are half way there: saving the world from Deflation spiral Japan style for the next 10 years. Bold action is needed now over this weekend to kill the Fear, confirm H&S Reversal squared by Intraday Double Bottom. Dow must overtake 9653.95 on weekly close to diminish Bearish Flag. If not, we will have a waterfall, further assets fire sell and self reinforcing deflation spiral. Dow for us here is only a reference point, but very important now: it is showing whether FED efforts reinflating economy are working or not. Deflation will be forgotten in two weeks after move above 10000. But action needed now. All reinflation efforts are leading to "liquidity trap" if velocity of money is falling of the cliff: banks are not taking any risk and just keeping money at the FED. The key to all is US Dollar: it must be weaken immediately and everything is ready for it: just one push and world will be saved from Deflation Monster. We will refer to further charts on what must be done.

Stockmarkets meltdown, Gold is flying high. SSRI, RGLD, SLW, AUY, MTS.v, TNR.v, SST.v

Trust is broken, system is falling apart. Too many bailouts and liquidity pumping and just a few solid assets without anyone promise and IOU squared by derivatives.

FED did not cut, but Gold is flying without it! Cut will come and will add to the fire.

All financial economy is build on Trust, there are very few tangible assets left. In commodities market and PGM you have your assets in the ground, defined by drilling and not just "PlayStation kids Credit Default Assumptions", you still need credit to build a mine, but you have tangible assets in a "safe" and if there is Demand for them you can build on its economics.

Today is a crucial day: with rising systemic risk finally Gold behaved as it supposed to be in a free market without government manipulations - Safe haven of last resort. Raise more then 85 dollars in a one day trade will bring Gold to the front pagers of newspapers in the world.

HUI and XAU are supporting Gold rise and showing final break out from falling apart general markets.

Game here was simple in a hindsight now: with the first margin calls in July Funds sold where they had a profit: commodities, fueling the Bear Raid of PPT intervention in Gold market. Today when assets are liquidated in a fire sell to cover derivative obligations in a reality of a tight credit markets it is very important that HUI and XAU have "decoupled" finally from general market.

Economics of Supply and Demand are very simple here: Stock market of the world used to be 51 trillion dollars. All we need here is 5% of it. Investors today have seen that Gold has decoupled of falling financial markets. Even if the markets will turn on the Election Rate Cut and all these liquidity pumped into the system, investors are going to Buy Gold as Insurance without any counter party risk. Assume 3% will go into physical markets of Gold, Silver, PGM and other commodities. It is 1.5 trillion dollars! They will just fly. With 1% going into HUI it will be 500 billion: it means all HUI companies will have to rise in their valuation 5 times. Now even divide everything by 2 - it is still Buy of a lifetime by any means.

Once this will happen the most "crazy and greedy" investors will take positions in Juniors: lets say 1% of all these money for the HUI: it is 5 billion - Juniors will have to rise Ten fold just to accommodate these demand for the goods in the ground.

These investors will meet money from Majors in HUI when they will start to buy resources and buy time which is the most precious ( in case of AIG bailout time was measured in 85 billions and 80% of the company respectively). They will spend another 10% of their valuation 50 billion

on buying into Juniors with resources.

You can play financials recovery as usual or you can chose the staff in the ground which today has received very bold endorsement from the Mr Market. (Mr Warren Buffet must be nearby now, they do like each other).

We need just 1% of the money running out of stock markets these days.

Today's action is when picture is better then thousand words.

Silver is showing its monetary function as well and gain here will be even more dramatic once money will come back into the sector.

Jim Rogers on Fannie Mae FNM and Freddie Mac FRE bail out

This was recoded before recent decision:

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vIQvD7yNni2I.asf

Silver Standard Resources SSRI Measured & Indicated Silver Resources Increase 143% at Pitarrilla

This stock must be reading my blog, announcement could not be more timely for chart's definite break out to the upside. This are the fundamentals of Junior mining (Company will soon graduate to Major League starting production): rising underlining price multiplied by rising resources base. Those guys kept and grow them in the ground from Silver price at 5USD. Street did not realised that this company will be producing and justify much higher multiple in the near term. Money is coming back into the market and even 1% coming back into sector will rise all our boats. 99% coming back into financials will be "our clients" after next sell off.

"July 16, 2008 5:00 AM EDT
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - July 16, 2008) - Silver Standard Resources Inc. (TSX: SSO)(NASDAQ: SSRI) is pleased to report that infill drilling continues to expand silver resources at its wholly-owned Pitarrilla silver project in Mexico. Measured and indicated resources at the Breccia Ridge Zone have grown by 143% and total project resources by 14% since the company's last update in November 2007. All of the silver resource increase is located in the Breccia Ridge Zone where infill and exploration drilling have been the priority."

http://www.streetinsider.com/Press+Releases/Silver+Standard+Resources+Inc.%3A+Measured+%26amp%3B+Indicated+Silver+Resources+Increase+143%25+at+Pitarrilla%26apos%3Bs+Breccia+Ridge+Zone/3822713.html

Silver Wheaton SLW is ready to rock.

Very bullish formation with cleared double bottom reversal of short term bearish trend to the upside. On fundamental side if things company is highly leveraged to silver price and bought recently in gloomy market conditions more silver streams. This job added more value to the company cash flow and number of controlled MOZ of silver has increased. With moving up silver prise stock valuation will go at a faster pace.

Silver is in a very strong Break Out

Few ideas for your thoughts how to play this break out in silver:

SST.v Silverstone Resources - new Silver Wheaton SLW

SRLM.ob Sterling Mining - new producer from old Sunshine Mine

ASM.v Avino Gold and Silver Mines - equipment value is more then MC, management woken up lately

MGN Mines Management - huge resources, Montana, SLW took a 10% stake in the company

RVM.to Revett Minerals - upgraded resources, one of the most undervalued Ag Oz in the ground

SBB.v Sabina Silver - one of the most undervalued Ag Oz in the ground

CNU.v Continuum Resources - droped below its value in J/V with Fortuna

Royal Gold RGLD Early Warning Indicator is Bullish

How to Play Commodities, Gold and Silver Market from this consolidation stage. CS

As usual here are only my thoughts - in order to convert them into money you need discipline, desire to learn and action. One small obstacle before you will proclaim yourself next Sir Warren - you need capital. If you are looking for bets to leverage your house upon these ideas are not for you. Never play with your house or even lunch money.

To read further you should buy my reinflation approach: all markets are oversold, managed devaluation of USD is the only cure from complete financial disaster in USA, in order to resolve dead freeze in the credit markets all central banks are pumping liquidity like crazy. Debase of USD will provide solid support for all Hard Assets; Gold and Silver as store of real value will benefit the most. The good news here are that now all governments joined the game after Canada's and Bank of England rate cut. People will realise that game of musical chairs: who will devalue most to protect the export trade will left no single "solid" FIAT currency, inflation is eroding value of currency, any increase in money supply is inflation. Now we are talking about bail out of the housing sector in USA, it means huge moral and financial hazard in form of easy credit one more time. I still think that China stock market will correct 20%-30% from here just to get to the solid uptrend line. But do not confuse yourself with crash in the market and China's economy. It is planed economy: all those bridges, roads, ports and power stations are planed. They will always punish foreigners and even domestic speculators by cooling the market, but will never let their Bull in Infrastructure to stop. It is the only defence against USA losing its World Power status and against poor rural people of China's upraise. If flag ship of "free trade" is talking and making bail out of poor Friends from Wall Street (I hope you are not seriously thinking that somebody is taking care about fox from Alabama, otherwise buy treasuries), what will prevent China from use its 1.5 trillion reserve mostly in paper USD nominated assets? I do not take End of The World approach here: before it will happen you will be able to lose your capital few times, so stay concentrated.

Next most exiting gains will be realised in Junior mining sector, which is extremely oversold now and providing very good Entry point. Junior mining is very small, risky and volatile sector, but it is exactly what you need to make money.

Junior mining cycle is well described in latest Sanu Resources SNU.v presentation visit their site. We need trusted management, initial resource base and their ability to rase money and extend resources. If it is exploration company without any NI 43-101 resources it is more risky play, but pay off in case of discovery will be handsome. To increase your chances go for management with proven track record, exploration on old mine camps closed due to low prices and historical resources, which hopefully could be confirmed. You have double leverage of rising underlining commodity price and increasing resources base. Recent problems with Nova Gold have shown that marginal economic projects will stay marginal, rising cost of building mine and of production will put them again on hold before higher commodity prices. It is a good thing if you do not own this stocks, it means that all that excess supply will never materialise, you can not switch your decision to build mine like traders are changing their mind: it is billions of dollars and 7-10 years of hard work. So this lesson teach us that we should always diversify in this field and go for political risk in order to reduce technical risk: not so many discoveries are made, not every one of them will become a mine. My own track record with Tenke Mining TNK.to is providing support for my educational efforts. I was blessed to accumulate starting from 0.9CAD and this last April it was bought out by Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC for 25CAD. Now I think Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC is presenting itself very interesting take over play. I will mention few companies here, disclosure: I have positions in all of them. Search my blog for more information availible. Almost all of the mentioned companies updated their presentation, study before making any move.

TNR Gold TNR.v - very risky long term hold position - call on Gold and Commodities upside without time decay: no resources yet other then historical, but recent developments are very interesting. Management has changed strategy and will explore most promising properties in Argentina by themselves: namely El Salto is under drill now, Eureka and El Tapau will be early in next year. Los Azules property is going into feasibility stage and operator Minera Andes MAI.v has started new drilling programme. Now they have found serious money supporting their new strategy, more institutions are coming on board via Pasific International. Management is buying themselves and new website is showing serious investment relations approach. Recent spike and going into accumulation stage is presenting very good Entry point and was due to unfolding 5mil shares position of Tenke Mining which was transfered into Lunding Mining. Lundin Mining has position in Suramina Resources SAX.to which is concentrating their efforts on Cerro Cuadrado project, more below. Hari Varshney has came on Board of TNR Gold, his family is behind Mantle Resources MTS.v backed by Lundins. Needless to say now after all words sad drill results will matter and mineralisation hit at El Salto could change the stock overnight.

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC - take over play in basic metals sector. Very good Entry point now with Zinc, Lead and Copper under pressure due to world wide recession fears. Recent and coming Fed rate cuts will propel commodities prices further, resolving of Congo Tenke Fungurume will catalyst new Bull Leg Up here, new mine Aljustrel is coming into bottom line as well. It is best commodity mix in the Old world: Cu, Zn, Pb, Ni in Europe with huge calls on Cu-Co in Congo and Zn in Russia.

Silverstone Resources SST.v - new Silver Wheaton SLW in the making. Just recently PP of 50 million was done at 2.9 CAD almost overnight. Now you can buy below Big Guys who are trying not to miss second chance. Lundin Mining and Capstone Mining CS.to are holding 38% of the company between themselves. Call on Silver without time decay. Aljustrel put into production by Lundin Mining will ignite the new run and market is waiting what recent financing was made for: new silver stream is in the making for sure and this recent bearishness is the best time to strike a good deal.

Sterling Mining SRLM.ob SMQ.v - famous Sunshine mine is coming into production again. Impressive resources are now confirmed by NI 43-101 and management promise to start the mine by Xmas. It did not came without the price: few recent financings put Fully Diluted float into over 50 mil shares and put stock under pressure - it is now very good Entry point to play this metamorphose into Silver producing company. Watch the video on site.

Suramina Resources SAX.to - another Lindin play on South America this time. The company took all SA assets after Lundin Mining take over of Tenke Mining. Recently resources at Jose Maria were increased. Company now is very active on the border of Argentina and Chile on new Cerro Cuadrado discovery silver-lead-zinc. Vicuna is a copper-gold porphyry and third major project at the moment. Go to http://www.caseyresearch.com/freeResearch.php

register for Exploration league and read interview with CEO Patricio Jones. The guy was behind Bajo de la Alumbrera and Veladero discovery and development. He is talking about Argentina and "Cerro Cuadrado is going to be a mine"

Avino Silver and Gold Mines ASM.v - Regarding AVINO Silver ASM.v I am still holding the position, this is the long shot: I am dissapointed with their progress, looks like they need new blood to get the full potential. Now at this level only their infrastructure cost more then market cap: all resources are "free". Problem here is that they never reported new resource estimations: results are good, grade is OK, but we need resources and final push out in this company. General for Silver December will be ignited month in new Leg up according to my charts.

Continuum Resources CNU.v - has took a hit recently when they was not able to establish J/V on their optioned property Natividad in Mexico. Now stock is traded at level below latest PP and only value in San Jose property where Fortuna Silver is operator accounted for. Among shareholders are Sprott with 19%, Agnico-Eagle with 15.3% and Fortuna Silver with 8%. Any positive change in Natividad status will push stock higher. Market is not giving any value to their other properties in Mexico.

Sunridge Gold SGC.v - is a Lundin Mining strategic investment in Eritrea Africa. Lundin Mining owns 16% of the company. Just recently company issued encouraging "Sunridge Gold Announces Indicated Resource Estimate For Emba Derho Vms Deposit"

"Sunridge Gold Corp. (SGC/TSX.V) announces an initial NI 43-101 compliant independent resource estimate for the Emba Derho zinc-copper-gold volcanogenic massive sulphide (VMS) deposit, on its 100% owned Asmara Project, Eritrea. This estimate is almost entirely in the "Indicated" category, with the total combined Indicated resources in the primary zinc and copper zones containing 1.7 billion pounds of zinc, 735 million pounds of copper, 402,000 ounces of gold and 15 million ounces of silver. The deposit is still open, particularly to the northwest. The estimate meets the Company's stated objectives in terms of size, average grade and the potential for a large open-pit operation."

Mantle resources MTS.v - another Lundin Mining strategic investment with just under 10% participation.

“Mantle Resources Inc.’s Akie deposit is a sedimentary exhalative (“SEDEX”) zinc-lead-silver deposit formed during one of the great ages of zinc mineralization. Another SEDEX zinc-lead-silver deposit of the same age that formed under very similar geological conditions to Akie is the 'Giant' Red Dog deposit, operated by Teck-Cominco and located in the Brooks Range of northern Alaska. Red Dog is the largest zinc mine in the world and is one of the largest accumulations of zinc+lead mineralization – more than 32 Mt contained zinc+lead metal.”
- Neil O’ Brien, Senior Vice-President of Exploration and Business Development, Lundin Mining Corp.

Lawrence Roulstone:

http://www.mantleresources.com/032006/files/en/asp/ir/pdfs/Mantle%20May%2007.pdf

Gold And Silver mining shares Buy Signal

Previous Major Top in HUI and XAU was market by Top in traffic to kitco.com web site. Recent Major bottom in August is market by Recent Bottom in traffic figure. Now interest is rising again. For any market to go up in its valuation you need new buyers, new money coming in. Interest and following the Gold Story is a first sign that the Crowd is coming back.

Avino Silver & Gold Mines ASM.v update

Slowly but surely Avino is moving close to 43-101 resource estimate. Two drills now are working on San Gonzalo deposit on Avino's Durango Mexico Property. Market Cap of the company now representing ONLY the value of production assets without any credit for mineral resources. It looks like a real bargain at this level: stock is totally forgotten and is bottoming out at double bottom.

New drilling results:

Avino Continues to Receive Encouraging Drill Results on Durango's Mexico Property

Google GOOG, WEB 2.0 Bubble, Gold and meditation on emothions and when to quit. CS.

One reader has put very important observation and question:

"Anonymous said...
You have been wrong on GOOG for the past 500 points. When are you going to give it up? Should it fall, taking a victory lap at this point should not be warranted."

This is my response which will go right into Common Sense Secrets of Trade - CS.

It is very important! For me first of all, then for those who are following. It is like in the plane with oxygen mask, same routine.

You should never Marry your stock, or even worse: start to Hate one. This is the ticket in the first class to poor house. (First class is because it is very expensive).

There are great businesses and not so and there are stocks and their prices: representing valuations of those businesses by Investment Crowd. Judgement of the crowd is hardly ever right: we never have all information, it is distorted by "official" figures (if you really think that there is no INFLATION - save your time), Bubble Media and specially blessed people like Mad Guy.

My business is to find those that are having very low valuation and those that are having very high one. Then you can build your case and invest accordingly: accumulate for your Core positions (90%) undervalued assets with IHPV (Insainly High Potential Value) which are in multi year bull market (Gold, Silver and Commodities) and maybe trade with LIMITED possible loss (puts) those that are at the peak of their performance (Google, as you know, I have allocated to this kind of stock).

Why should I give up? It is not a competition, it is my observation and opinion. I am putting some money in this particular play: only what I can afford to lose, read CS if you really care. I have made some money on my puts and lost some, more on this particular trade.

But my personal record does not affecting Google valuation in any way. The main factor is that we are now in late stage of a Bubble: the higher it goes the harder will it fall. Now the stock is in parabolic rise without any fundamental reason. It is madness and insanity of investment crowd that brought stock to that level. Company is "great" (remember Enron - it was also great until CEO quit in August and Enron busted in November. So far we had "only" CFO "Retired" rather suddenly) - valuation of that company is crazy and unsustainable, guys (Larry and Sergey) must be praying that it will stop rising so fast: nothing in the world could stop fear when confidence is lost. It will bring company down with its stock. Fear is more powerful feeling than even greed.

Regarding my personal record I am making very good money in my core positions, did very good with puts in August on Tec, Home builders, QQQQ, DIA and SPY and closer to make money on WEB Bubble 2.0 as never. Sold out puts and bought calls on NEM, RGLD and SLW - all was posted here. Calls on NEM, SLW and RGLD are above plus 100% mark and I took some profit already. I was able to accumulate, when there was "blood on the streets" in Junior mining sector in August and I was blessed to reach my goal for this year now and standing at all time high. The goal was very high and I thought that I can not make it, but with the help of this exercise I made it. This is the reason why I am taking your question so seriously. I will do my homework in order to defend my achievement for this year at least and preserve my capital.

The main point is not to lose money. If you made some in Google, great - take profit and find new Real Bull Market within Trade of this Decade, read CS, Gold and Silver on this blog. Mission of this blog is to help you to think and do not chase last 20% of the Bubble, but to go to there where 80% percent left. If you are not convinced - fine, do not invest in juniors, gold and silver, but just do not lose your money, leave them for your kids it will be your best investment.

Like I have put before: always ask - Why?

I am the one of the greediest person in the world: I need you and your money to drive the Great Bull market of the decade. You are reading it now, you will come back in one year. You will start to think, ask questions and listen. Than you will make your own decision, but it will be yours not of the Mad Guy. If we will be able to get out when only 20% will be left - you will send me Xmas card.

Three most important things in investing:

http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/05/three-most-important-things-in.html

My Bearish Case on Google:

http://sufiy.blogspot.com/search?q=goog

``It's scary if that ever started to go wrong.'' Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a__uOeKKJ6xY&refer=home

"As Its Stock Tops $600, Google Faces Growing Risks" The New York Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/13/technology/13google.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin

Lundin Mining LMC LUN.to CC presentation

Rather busy conference call: few analysts and investment companies engaged, swiss UBS and Julius Baer are following the story. Main message apart from acquisitions Lundin Mining is dynamic organic growth story as well. Tenke Fungurume is on track to production in 2008 and Ozernoe feasibility study is moving forward.

From CC:

http://www.lundinmining.com/i/pdf/lumi_confcall071011.pdf

"This indicates to us that we're moving towards a new center of mineralization and presents distinct possibilities for additional copper resources," Neil O'Brien, Lundin's vice-president of exploration and business development, said on a conference call.
He said zinc drilling results at the mine were exceeding the company's expectations in terms of thickness of mineralization.
"We can tell you that what we are looking at... is one of the largest known undeveloped zinc resources anywhere," he said.

Lundin Mining Reports More High Grade Drill Results From Lombador Exploration.

"VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--Oct 11, 2007 -- Lundin Mining Corporation ("Lundin Mining" or the "Company") (Toronto:LUN.TO - News)(NYSE:LMC - News)(OMX: LUMI) is pleased to announce additional drilling results from the Lombador zinc zone at the Neves-Corvo mine."

Credit Suisse Raises Gold, Silver Forecasts on Supply, Dollar

By Saijel Kishan
Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse Group, Switzerland's second-biggest bank, raised its 12-month forecast for gold, silver and other precious metals because of supply shortfalls and a decline in the value of the dollar.
Gold may trade at $730 to $770 an ounce, compared with the Zurich-based bank's previous forecast of $670 to $720, according to a report yesterday by Tobias Merath, Credit Suisse's head of commodity research.
Silver may trade at $13.50 to $14.50 an ounce compared with the bank's previous forecast of $12.50 to $14.50. Credit Suisse said that platinum may trade at $1,400 to $1,600 an ounce, up from a range of $1,250 to $1,450.
Palladium may trade at $310 to $350 an ounce, compared with $300 to $340, the bank said.
Gold for immediate delivery was at $729.17, silver at $13.1462, platinum at $1,312 and palladium at $335 as of 9:25 a.m. in London.