Aden Sisters: Gold Finally Bombed Out $TNR.v $MUX $GDX $NG $ABX $RGLD

  After yesterday's huge run Gold is confirming the Head and Shoulder Bullish reversal. Weekly close above $1,317 will be very important.

 Kirill Klip.:

FED Has Found ... Sorry, Created Inflation To Save Us All - Gold Celebrates ... Quietly So Far.

"Gold and Silver are acting today like if the Chinese virus "Missing Collateral" has finally reached the London BOE vaults!"

TNR Gold: Shotgun Gold Project - Why Do We Need New Gold Deposits?

Kitco:

Gold Finally Bombed Out

Gold dropped sharply a couple of weeks ago. Many experts can’t explain why, but there are several reasons that make sense…

SAFE HAVEN?

First, gold entered a seasonally slow period. This could last for another month or so but seasonality alone doesn’t explain why the decline was so steep and sudden.

More impressive, gold’s safe haven appeal has diminished somewhat. Following the Ukraine elections, for instance, concerns eased. But with Iraq now heating up, gold could continue its current rebound rise.

THE TECHNICAL PICTURE

Meanwhile, gold had strong support at $1280. This level had been tested several times but it clearly broke.

This means gold will probably continue to hold above the $1200 area. It also suggests gold could continue forming a head and shoulders bottom (see LS, H, RS on Chart 1).

Plus, there are growing signs indicating this could end up being the bottom for this decline, which has been in force since 2011- 12.

Looking at gold’s big picture since 1968, you’ll see what we mean.

Chart 2A shows that gold’s decline of the last few years looks small in the big picture, within the mega uptrending channel since 1968. 

Note that gold has had two major bull markets, in the 1970s and in the 2000s. 

The major rise in the ‘70s didn’t break its bull market red uptrend until 1984, several years after the peak in 1980.

The bull market red uptrend since 2001, however, is still intact.  On a big picture basis, it’ll be important to see if this trend holds. That is, as long as gold stays above the lows of last year, at $1210, this trend will stay solid. 

And according to gold’s leading long term indicator (B), it’s saying that gold remains at an extreme low area... In fact, this is the lowest it’s been since the 1980s.

Since these low areas tend to coincide with bottoms in the gold price, this tells us that gold is totally bombed out and the lows of last year are unlikely to be broken.

This doesn’t mean gold will soar from here.  Eventually yes, but for now we could see more backing and filling.

All things considered, it looks more like 2015 could be the year of a strong change to the upside.

DEFLATION GAINING MOMENTUM

One important reason why is because deflationary pressures have been intensifying.

Although there has been some improvement, global economies remain sluggish, despite massive stimulus efforts from the biggest central banks in the world.

This suggests that stimulus measures will likely continue in order to boost the global economies. And even though these measures may eventually cause inflation, the current economic sluggishness is stubborn and it’s feeding deflation.

Our inflation-deflation barometer is an indicator that measures rising inflation against falling deflation by using a ratio between gold and bonds.

Historically, gold has been used to measure inflation and bonds have measured deflation.

Chart 3 shows the ratio of the two since 2003. Notice the steady rise in gold (inflation) against bonds (deflation) through 2011. Moreover, after the 2011 peak in gold, bonds began to strengthen against gold and they’ve continued to be stronger since then.

In other words, we could still see bonds strengthen even more against gold in the months ahead. This would coincide with a sluggish economic outlook. But again, that may not be the case for long.

SILVER IS CHEAP

At the same time, silver is super cheap. It’s also cheap compared to most of the other markets.

Demand for silver is also very good.  A recent report said that physical demand rose to a record last year. 

This growing demand ties in well with the technical situation in silver. It too is bombed out and, like gold, it’ll likely head higher in the upcoming months.

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

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Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter providing specific forecasts and recommendations on gold, stocks, interest rates and the other major markets. For more information, go to www.adenforecast.com   or  www.goldchartsrus.net"

Gregory Mannarino: Pump and Dump Wealth Transfer Coming Soon DIA SPY QQQ

  George Soros holds now 1.3 billion rolling Put on the market to protect his long positions. How long this levitation in the markets can continue? Nobody knows for sure, but this interview gives us a very good food for thought. Gregory expect the serious correction starting within next few weeks, when money after initial drop will be reallocated into Commodities, Gold and Silver. Big banks are already shorting the market and it will create the Pump and Dump Wealth Transfer again.

  So far market was playing along the Toby Connor's scenario: with general equities topping in the last move up into the late spring of this year, Commodities are breaking Up and Gold and Silver are going much higher. Silver is topping $22.00 level today and Gold is at $1,340. Interestingly enough ZeroHedge reports that:

Hedge Funds Most Short Into Latest All Time High Ramp Since September 2012

Ukraine, Syria And Global De-Dollarization: USD To Go Down And Gold Up TNR.v MUX RGLD GDX GLD ABX

"Ukraine will be the very bad example for these leaders: that you can come, make a few phone calls and even f**k the EU deciding who will lead the sovereign country next. The least they can do is to accelerate the De-Dollarization and call the bluff called the "food stamp recovery and Taper". US Dollar is levitating just above crucial 80.00 level, with all Taper hype and currency distractions in the emerging markets. Gold is breaking to the upside and any additional strain on the U.S. "recovery" can ignite the next leg down in US Dollar. China will be playing its own game getting ready to the global reset: accumulating record amount of Gold and encouraging its citizens to do the same."

Toby Connor: Dollar Breaks Down, Great Inflation to Push Gold And Silver Much Higher TNR.v MUX GDX GLD SLV

 "We are  following Toby Connor with his very interesting concept of The Great Inflation in 2014. Gold was in a breakout mood this week and finally has broken to the upside from $1270 level with intraday high on Friday at $1,322 and close at $1,319. We have now the massive short squeeze in action in Gold and Silver. Silver has broken to the upside as well on Friday closing at $21.51. Gold mining shares are making the very good progress as well.

  On the chart above you can see that Gold has crossed the very important level on daily chart and moved above its 200MA at $1,309. It will bring a lot of attention of traders and shorts will be running to the exit now. Mass media will be picking up the Gold story as well now. CNBC is talking about Gold and Miners already and Jim Cramer advises to watch GDX - Gold miners ETF. Next levels in Gold to watch is $1,360 and $1,420 to complete Double Bottom Reversal pattern on weekly chart.

  Silver had its massive breakout as well following the Gold footsteps this week. Next levels to watch here are $22.75 and $25 to confirm its Double Bottom Reversal pattern on weekly chart. The most important here that Silver has broken to the upside above its 200MA at $21.13 and closed above it at $21.49."

Rick Rule On Gold And Silver Markets, Miners And Silver Short Positions MUX TNR.v GDX RGLD SLV

 "Rick Rule gave a very interesting interview on Gold and Silver markets and, particularly, on Gold and Silver mining stocks. Learn from the pro about the investment landscape unfolding this year. Rick Rule was right on the money with his call on the bottom in junior miners last summer. Now he is talking about the Silver short positions being literally uncoverable with the inflow of 2 billion dollars. "The bear markets are the very authors of the Bull market. Recovery in the best Gold and Silver mining stocks will match the magnitude of the previous bear market decline."

  Companies like McEwen Mining, Royal Gold and Silver Wheaton have already demonstrated the explosive leverage to the rising Gold and Silver prices."

Rick Rule On Gold And Silver Markets, Miners And Silver Short Positions MUX TNR.v GDX RGLD SLV

  Rick Rule gave a very interesting interview on Gold and Silver markets and, particularly, on Gold and Silver mining stocks. Learn from the pro about the investment landscape unfolding this year. Rick Rule was right on the money with his call on the bottom in junior miners last summer. Now he is talking about the Silver short positions being literally uncoverable with the inflow of 2 billion dollars. "The bear markets are the very authors of the Bull market. Recovery in the best Gold and Silver mining stocks will match the magnitude of the previous bear market decline."

  Companies like McEwen Mining, Royal Gold and Silver Wheaton have already demonstrated the explosive leverage to the rising Gold and Silver prices.

Goldcorp: Argentina Issues Easing, Cerro Negro On Track For Mid-2014 Production GG MUX TNR.v ILC.v LCC.v

"Argentina is slowly coming to its senses with its relationship with the mining industry. The most important is not what we can read in the government proclamations, but the real progress on the ground. Goldcorp reports about its progress with Cerro Negro Gold-Silver mine in Argentina and that operating in the country is getting easier. FT reports that "Repsoil poised to sign $5bn compensation deal with Argentina." "...the settlement is also likely to provide a boost to Argentina, which is trying to rebuild its credibility with international investors ..."

  Companies on our watch list should enjoy the better valuations with the improved investment climate in Argentina. McEwen Mining has exploration properties in the area of Goldcorp's Cerro Negro Gold-Silver mine, operating J/V on the San Jose mine with Hochschild Mining in Santa Cruz and world class  Los Azules Copper project in San Juan. TNR Gold is involved with McEwen mining in Los Azules copper project with its back-in right and holds shares of McEwen mining. International Lithium is working on Mariana Lithium brine project in Salta with Ganfeng Lithium strategic partner from China. Lumina Copper is looking for a buyer on its Taca Taca copper project in Salta as well."

Adam Hamilton: Gold Stocks Breakout MUX TNR.v RGLD ABX GLD GDX SLV GG NG.to

 "Adam Hamilton is one of the best technicians in the sector and we like to follow his technical charts with relative Gold, Silver and mining stocks valuations. Gold stocks will be the major beneficiaries of the Gold and Silver ongoing massive short squeeze. The unfolding Gold Shortage will push the main question to the investors in Gold again: Where the Gold will come from in the future?"

Peter Schiff: Gold Even More Bullish Under Yellen Than Bernanke or Greenspan! MUX TNR.v GDX RGLD ABX

  Peter Schiff continues his battle with the bubble media and discusses the solid values of Gold. Economic data is getting softer day by day now and Taper for The Taper is on the agenda again. Meanwhile gold stocks are leading this rally. Barrick Gold is breaking to the upside on the analyst upgrade yesterday, Royal Gold is going up anticipating  the Gold price action and McEwen Mining has printed The Golden Cross.

McEwen Mining El Gallo 1 Mine Expansion Nears Completion MUX TNR.v GDX

Goldcorp: Argentina Issues Easing, Cerro Negro On Track For Mid-2014 Production GG MUX TNR.v ILC.v LCC.v

  "Argentina is slowly coming to its senses with its relationship with the mining industry. The most important is not what we can read in the government proclamations, but the real progress on the ground. Goldcorp reports about its progress with Cerro Negro Gold-Silver mine in Argentina and that operating in the country is getting easier. FT reports that "Repsoil poised to sign $5bn compensation deal with Argentina." "...the settlement is also likely to provide a boost to Argentina, which is trying to rebuild its credibility with international investors ..."

  Companies on our watch list should enjoy the better valuations with the improved investment climate in Argentina. McEwen Mining has exploration properties in the area of Goldcorp's Cerro Negro Gold-Silver mine, operating J/V on the San Jose mine with Hochschild Mining in Santa Cruz and world class  Los Azules Copper project in San Juan. TNR Gold is involved with McEwen mining in Los Azules copper project with its back-in right and holds shares of McEwen mining.International Lithium is working on Mariana Lithium brine project in Salta with Ganfeng Lithium strategic partner from China. Lumina Copper is looking for a buyer on its Taca Taca copper project in Salta as well."

Gold Breaks 1,320: The Mother Of Short Squeeze Has Arrived TNR.v MUX GDX GLD SLV RGLD ABX GG

  "Gold is sending its Happy Valentines to all Gold Bugs today and breaks $1320 on the massive short squeeze. Gold shorts will have their Blood Friday now. The real reason for this move is the realisation of the groundbreaking shift in the structure of the Gold market with the unprecedented demand of 2,181 tons of Gold from China in 2013. 

  Janet Yellen testimony has opened the possibility To Taper The Taper and James Rickards is calling for the Taper Pause in June. US dollar is going down very close to 80.00 level again. This level will be protected, but should the US Dollar break down below 80.00 Gold and Silver will go vertical towards $1,500 and $25 respectively. 

   Our short Squeeze watch includes McEwen Mining and TNR Gold. McEwen Mining had 26.8 million shares sold short or 8.6 days to cover, according to NASDAQ. MUX.to has rocketed from December low of CAD1.80 to CAD3.27 close yesterday. Gold breakout will push shorts into the corner, but explosive move in Silver will have even more effect on this company. 

   TNR Gold is still day dreaming, but move in McEwen Mining should pull out this junior out of its misery. Los Azules Copper development will be next to watch on the back of recent M&A activity in the sector and CRB - commodity index breakout to the upside."

McEwen Mining has printed The Golden Cross!

Gold Miners Are Ready For A Launch GLD, MUX, TNR.v, GDX, RGLD

  We have the very interesting action today in Gold and Gold Miners. With Gold hammered down on the bad news for the sector: "very strong payroll numbers" - which should imply Taper Impulsive Disorder again - Gold miners refused to sell off and made the reversal with many names closing Up for the day. It will be important this time to see for how long Gold will stay below $1300 again. This kind of diversion in Gold and Gold Miners is the very good sign, when Gold Miners are leading the Gold prices Up.

On this chart we can see HUI relative to the Gold price and all this bear market Gold miners were sliding with faster pace than the Gold price. Now we can see the bottoming process with all momentum indicators turning Up from July.

  HUI has printed the Double Bottom on weekly chart and momentum indicators are going Up now.

HUI has refused to sell off today with Gold hammered down $18 and after Reversal has made a very strong candle.

Royal Gold is the very important indicator for the whole sector: it had a very impressive rally in the Summer and now is setting up another potential advance.

  With all ongoing manipulations in Gold and Silver market we will be looking for additional value drivers and catalyst. Our darlings McEwen Mining and TNR Gold should benefit in case if these tea leaves reading will materialise.

TNR Gold: McEwen Mining Q3 2013 Results And Los Azules Copper Project 43-101 Report TNR.v, MUX, GDX

  McEwen Mining has published 43-101 report on Los Azules copper project in Argentina and now industry insiders will be busy crunching the numbers. 

Copper M&A: Peru Officials Meeting Chinalco, Minmetals This Week on Las Bambas Bids MUX, TNR.v, LCC.v, CU, GDX

 "With Chinese economy in the recovery mode quest by Chinese companies for the best mining assets is ongoing worldwide. Lumina Copper is getting some bids today again and Los Azules copper will be getting on the investors' radar screens with the changing political landscape in Argentina again."

Stockmarkets meltdown, Gold is flying high. SSRI, RGLD, SLW, AUY, MTS.v, TNR.v, SST.v

Trust is broken, system is falling apart. Too many bailouts and liquidity pumping and just a few solid assets without anyone promise and IOU squared by derivatives.

FED did not cut, but Gold is flying without it! Cut will come and will add to the fire.

All financial economy is build on Trust, there are very few tangible assets left. In commodities market and PGM you have your assets in the ground, defined by drilling and not just "PlayStation kids Credit Default Assumptions", you still need credit to build a mine, but you have tangible assets in a "safe" and if there is Demand for them you can build on its economics.

Today is a crucial day: with rising systemic risk finally Gold behaved as it supposed to be in a free market without government manipulations - Safe haven of last resort. Raise more then 85 dollars in a one day trade will bring Gold to the front pagers of newspapers in the world.

HUI and XAU are supporting Gold rise and showing final break out from falling apart general markets.

Game here was simple in a hindsight now: with the first margin calls in July Funds sold where they had a profit: commodities, fueling the Bear Raid of PPT intervention in Gold market. Today when assets are liquidated in a fire sell to cover derivative obligations in a reality of a tight credit markets it is very important that HUI and XAU have "decoupled" finally from general market.

Economics of Supply and Demand are very simple here: Stock market of the world used to be 51 trillion dollars. All we need here is 5% of it. Investors today have seen that Gold has decoupled of falling financial markets. Even if the markets will turn on the Election Rate Cut and all these liquidity pumped into the system, investors are going to Buy Gold as Insurance without any counter party risk. Assume 3% will go into physical markets of Gold, Silver, PGM and other commodities. It is 1.5 trillion dollars! They will just fly. With 1% going into HUI it will be 500 billion: it means all HUI companies will have to rise in their valuation 5 times. Now even divide everything by 2 - it is still Buy of a lifetime by any means.

Once this will happen the most "crazy and greedy" investors will take positions in Juniors: lets say 1% of all these money for the HUI: it is 5 billion - Juniors will have to rise Ten fold just to accommodate these demand for the goods in the ground.

These investors will meet money from Majors in HUI when they will start to buy resources and buy time which is the most precious ( in case of AIG bailout time was measured in 85 billions and 80% of the company respectively). They will spend another 10% of their valuation 50 billion

on buying into Juniors with resources.

You can play financials recovery as usual or you can chose the staff in the ground which today has received very bold endorsement from the Mr Market. (Mr Warren Buffet must be nearby now, they do like each other).

We need just 1% of the money running out of stock markets these days.

Today's action is when picture is better then thousand words.

Silver is showing its monetary function as well and gain here will be even more dramatic once money will come back into the sector.

Juniors Mining - second chance and Buy of your life or is it end of the World?

It is both and my money are on this story. It is the end of the world as we have known it before and it is Second chance to Buy into Junior Mining story. We all heard about the hurricanes, heavy storms and after getting into a wavy sea with some wind we are thinking that we know the story. Real life experience is something else and completely overwhelming in its brutal force.

Recent sell off in Junior mining companies is that kind of event which is separating boys from men. I am still here with my dairy and could be in much better shape as my treasures which are still in the ground or some do not even know that we are looking for them.

I will not go into a deep analyses of the recent geopolitical and economic developments and just will outline my big picture:

1. Using the Austrian definition of inflation as expending money supply with all bailouts of GSEs, fallen investment banks and Auto "retooling" inflation is out of control and USD will be worth close to nothing.

2. Deflation pressure of collapsing over leveraged housing sector will keep FED overreacting on the soft side in order not to allow lost decade Japanese style in USA.

3. Recent well organised intervention in USD in the thin holiday market has shown vulnerability of all FIAT currencies, now we will have stage number two in the Gold Bull market - run off from USD not only into other currencies, but run from all Fiat currencies into Hard assets.

4. Recent geopolitical events in Russia have shown that there is no such definition as energy security in that part of the world, West can not do anything because is using the double standards and my fear of wars for resources is very close to reality. My only hope is that this conflict will not put us to the real End of the World situation. All situation was played around and USD has benefited from it. USA have only one real Super Power attribute left - its military machine. Russian side was happy to show that the world has changed and will never be again the same. Brutal mistakes were done on the both sides and the world is certainly not better off: Russia will be pushed closer to align with China. One of the further complications from this situation will be mutual distrust, new cold war and diversifying from the USD. I do not like this situation at all, can not change it and invite you to participate in my plan and do not let evil forces to force you to sell at the Bottom and to buy at the Top. Maybe all the world will be better, if we become smart enough not to fool around each other.

5. "Decoupling story" is dead or just ongoing and its implications. The biggest torture in our investment world is to foresee the situation, to be right about the big picture and still experience that stomach feeling when everything is sinking together in the market sell off. I guess it is determined to be like this otherwise when everybody is rich around will we ever appreciate it? The trick of positive thinking is to fool yourself that you can profit from any outcome. If the world will become still I will profit from my puts on Google GOOG: hardly anyone will be clicking on anythings without house left, no electricity and running water. In all other cases China's stock market FXI chart looks very good for me, time is to push it up with recently rumored economic stimulus package. With retail sector growth more then 20% Y/Y internal growth will start to run the engine instead of pure reliance on export. Recent geopolitical tensions will emphasise once more time that the resources must be found, developed and protected with all necessary infrastructure in place. Decision will be taken more from military and geopolitical point of view then from economic efficiency. It will ensure strong demand for all raw materials. Another big kick start could come from USA should the new administration chose not the war in order to stimulate economy, but infrastructure development. USA was taken out of Great Depression by Second World War and interstate roads construction. Recent reports are showing that infrastructure in USA is in a miserable state including refineries, water treatment facilities, bridges and etc. Money will be printed anyway so maybe more careful approach on internal problems will safe the world and USA economy.

6. My market university paid off when I have entered this brutal phase of the Junior Mining sector this summer. I was without leverage and was not forced to sell at the wrong time. Now I am busy to accumulate great bargains if my writing here will get into God's office and he will like it.

7. My first pick is still TNR Gold TNR.v and I am stubborn to see exceptional speculative value here. It is a pure call on their value tighten up at Los Azules at the moment. In its recent SEDAR filing company disclosed that they have filed law suit in BC Canada against Xtrata in order to clear the title of Escorpio IV and, what is very important now, is to take out the condition that 25% back-in right could be exercised only within 36 months after option exercised by Xtrata and it has received Feasibility study. They are stating that it was added in the final version of the contract contrary to Memorandum of Undestanding which did not stipulate that condition. Alaskan projects in the proximity to famous Pebble deposit are not valued at all. Recent drilling on El Salto and El Tapau are underway. A lot of interesting thoughts about the Argentina and Mining can be found here.

My another pick is Mantle Resources MTS.v : it is pure Zinc market recovery story. Right metal - Zinc was under pressure when copper holds to its gains. Right place - BC Canada, even I could be fed up with high risk high-opportunity place. Resources have been published recently and are expending. Lundin has 10% stake. Lundin Mining has become trading situation with Tenke Fungurume in a slow motion. Strategy here is to take upside of the Zinc market in pure Zinc Canada M&A play and come to Lundin Mining LMC LUN.to should they overcome their spell. Sutors should include Lundin Mining itself and Teck Cominco with its J/V with Korea Zinc in Cirque deposit in the area. Story is known to industry people and not followed by investors at all. Sometimes it is a very good combination.

My old love story with Silverstone Resources SST.v is still under way. Stock must be jeolous and did not like when I took some profit at 2.5-3.15 levels. Beeing in the small brother of Silver Wheaton SLW story from the very beginning of its spin off from Capstone Mining CS.to was very fruitful. Our love was cemented in my belive in the Silver Bull when I was buying at 0.65CAD. Now when stock is messing around 1.5CAD my feelings are back. Some things are not in favor of the company: Lundin Mining Aljusterl is struggling with start of production cycle. No more silver streams were brought during the recent slump, but the selling was overblown and somebody has gotten into real liquidity story and was selling at any bid like there was no tomorrow. Recently announced normal cause issuers bid will help to stabilise the market and present another good entry point. Silver Standard SSRI, Silver Wheaton SLW, Yamana Gold AUY and Royal Gold RGLD are all my trading partners on options side of things as first money are pouring into big names in the sector. Water PHO, India EPI and Brasil EWZ along with China FXI my calls on recovery of decoupling story.

My diary do not forget that it is my own story and allow for all necessary DD, homework and other efforts necessary to become Mr Warren Buffet should you decide so.

Royal Gold RGLD - Gold early warning indicator, is in upside break out.

Royal Gold has cleared finally resistance at 32 and in a definite break out mode. Company is highly leverage to gold price and well recognised in the market. Number of higher lows is providing a solid uptrend base.

Royal Gold RGLD Early Warning Gold indicator

Stock is making higher highs and higher lows in recent consolidation state, chart looks to me like a good spring before break out. Fundamental considerations are good as well: rising CAPEX is no issue here and rising gold price is translating into high leverage of royalty revenue.

From the newly relaunced website:

"The Company’s royalty portfolio provides investors with a unique opportunity to capture value in the precious metals sector without incurring many of the risks associated with mine operations such as capital costs, operating costs, and environmental liabilities. The distinction between a royalty company and a mining company is very important in the current market environment where the costs to build and operate mines are rising significantly. "

Royal Gold Business Strategy



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"Royal Gold collaborates with mine operators, royalty owners and other business partners to acquire royalties and unlock their value. The key elements of our business strategy include:
Focus on Gold. Royal Gold will continue to be a precious metals investment vehicle focused on gold.
Royalty Business Model. Royal Gold’s lower risk business model is based on acquiring royalty interests in precious metals properties rather than engaging in costly and more complex mining operations.
Growth and Diversification. Royal Gold is determined to add to its broad base of precious metals royalties through accretive transactions, to further reduce risk and provide ample opportunity for organic growth within the portfolio.
Margin Enhancement. Royal Gold’s unique business model allows us to efficiently grow our royalty revenue without adding significant overhead costs.
Financial flexibility. Royal Gold’s position of liquidity allows us to compete for royalty acquisitions by means of a purchase, by providing financing, or by entering into a strategic exploration alliance in exchange for a royalty"