Tenke Mining Update Gecamines Transparency Issue

As I wrote before this is one of the most important issues holding stock back.

FCX is ready to advance project in case of its merger with PD.

"Gecamines Mining Contract Reviews Being Done `Calmly' (Update1)
By Antony Sguazzin
Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Gecamines, the state-owned copper mining company, said its review of contracts with foreign companies won't affect their operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
While the review may be of concern to investors, it is being carried out in a ``spirit of improvement,'' Paul Fortin, the company's managing director, said today at the Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town.
``It will be a review that is done objectively and calmly with discussions,'' Fortin said. ``It should be viewed as something that will not disturb your operations.''
Congo held its first democratic elections in four decades last year and is now trying to revive its economy after civil wars killed four million people and destroyed already limited infrastructure. The country has some of the world's biggest copper and cobalt reserves.
On Oct. 31, Fortin said in an interview that the equity stakes Gecamines holds in project will be looked and claims where little has been done to explore for metals or develop mines may be reclaimed.
Gecamines' accords with Phelps Dodge Corp., Global Enterprises Co. and Kinross Forrest will be reviewed after the World Bank questioned the transparency of the contracts, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 3.
To contact the reporter on this story: Antony Sguazzin in Johannesburg at asguazzin@bloomberg.net . "

I can not find any source with credible information from Liege Belgium where Congo Mining Workshop took place apart this post from StockHouse BB:

"Fortin on Tenke production

Congo Mining Workshop (01/12/2007) Liège-Belgium
Tenke-Fungurume production forecast:Copper in ktCu 2009=40 2010=40 2011=40 2012=65 2013=141 2014=141 2015=60 Cobalt. in ktCo 2009=02 2010=02 2011=02 2012=05 2013=009 2014=011 2015=08
Total for his presentation with Gecamines-partners: DCP KCC KMT TFM SMK RMbut not CAMEC, AFRICO or Chinese like Covec, Hanrui or Wambao
Copper in ktCu 06=72 07=132 08=196 09=329 10=432 11=515 12=540 13=616 14=616 15=616 Cobalt in ktCo 06=13 07=17.6 08=21.7 09=28.1 10=34.5 11=43 12=46 13=56 14=57 15=52
DCP = NIKANOR = DRC Copper Project ( Tilwezembe - Kananga - KOV)KCC = KATANGA MINING = Kamoto Copper CompanyKMT = FIRST QUANTUM = Kingamiambo Musonoï Tailings SarlTFM = TENKE/PHELPS-DODGE = Tenke Fungurume MiningRM = METOREX = Ruashi Mining (Ruashi - Etoile)"

If it will be confirmed it means that Paul Fortin Managing Director of Gecamines Partner of Phelps Dodge and Tenke mining in Tenke Fungurume project is ALREADY counting production from this project in 2009 (in line with Tenke mining estimates) and question of Transparency in case of Tenke Fungurume Gecamines deal will be resolved and conditions reconfirmed in the nearest future. It will clear hopefully last political hurdle on the way of stock appreciation to its intrinsic value.

Google if you are still wondering about SELLOFF

Maybe this will help, scroll down, read and think, any arguments - ready to learn.

Google another "Revenue Stream" is questioned

I have already wrote about YouTube revelations from Google TV Chief:

"All it means, that day when you can sell tons of Ads in copyrighted material taken for nothing with broadcast quality will never come, YouTube means CAPEX, more CAPEX, and some more CAPEX: blades, electricity without any business model yet."

Now there is another blow from Radio ad market:

"CHAD AND RYAN STEELBERG, THE founders of an automated radio ad placement company purchased by Google in January 2006, have left the company."...
"Google bought dMarc for $102 million in cash plus the possibility of further payouts totaling up to $1.13 billion, if certain revenue targets were met. But last week, Valleywag.com, a blog covering Silicon Valley businesses, reported that a source close to dMarc said management and investors were unlikely to get more than $200 million under the terms of the deal."

Sales are not coming here...nothing apart from clicks was ever created at Google...or sorry here was it Overture?

http://publications.mediapost.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=Articles.showArticleHomePage&art_aid=55287

Tenke Mining presented by Freeport-MacMoRan

On March 14.03.2007 shareholders of Phelps Dodge and Freeport-MacMoRan will vote on merger and hopefully create World's Largest Publicly traded Copper Company . Tenke Fungurume deposit is presented by FCX (57.75% and Tenke mining 24.75% and DRC Gecamines 17.5%) as:

1. Believed to be largest Cu/Co project in the world today.
2. Less then Half of the concession 600 sq miles explored, cumulative length strike greater than 80 kilometers.

http://www.fcx.com/inrl/presentn/2007/JPMorgHighYld.pdf

Google and Analysts Romance

WANTED

Anthony Noto - Goldman Sachs
Mark Mahaney - Citigroup
Brian Pitz - Banc of America
Robert Peck - Bear, Stearns
Dave Joseph - Morgan Stanley
Safa Rashtchy - Piper Jaffray
Ben Schachter - UBS
Imran Khan – JP Morgan
Jordan Rohan - RBC
Capital Markets
Justin Post - Merrill Lynch
Christa Quarles - Thomas Weisel
PartnersHeath Terry - Credit Suisse
Youssef Squali - Jefferies & Co.
Doug Anmuth - Lehman Brothers
Paul Keung - CIBC World
MarketsMark May - Needham & Co.

Guys is Google still BUY? Where are you? Somebody do not listen to you, call Sequoia. Remember House will stay what will happen to you?

Google YouTube and Sequoia are Selling Shares of Google

"Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- YouTube Inc. founders and investors may reap as much as $1.53 billion selling Google Inc. stock they received when the video-sharing Web site was bought last year.
YouTube investors and executives including co-founders Chad Hurley and Steve Chen registered to sell 3.23 million shares, Mountain View, California-based Google said today in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Google bought San Bruno, California-based YouTube for $1.65 billion in November to tap the market for online video advertising. Hurley and Chen, who founded YouTube in February 2005, may each sell shares worth about $326.2 million as of today's closing price. Sequoia Capital, YouTube's largest investor, may sell shares worth $504.4 million. "

Very logical, who need to own these over hyped stocks, but why do not you like to wait until 600 bucks, all your Friends from the Wall Street screaming Buy and putting Price Targets on Google around 600. Do you know something better then them? Or it is all way back to 2000 "hype the staff why we are selling"?

Google TV chief is not happy with YouTube

I think from track record of this guy Vincent Dureau he knows how to use 1.65 billion USD in more efficient way if you really would like to build TV over the Net and not just please your Funding Masters:

http://www.intellocity.com/about/bios/v_dureau_bio.html

http://informitv.com/articles/2006/08/02/googlerecruitsopentv/

It seems that in so far away from Google headquarters "small" European Amsterdam Mr Dureau spoke from his heart and I believe him. looks like YouTube deal was masterminded before he joined Google, guy must be promised Funds and Freedom to build TV over the NET but then Google just spend 1.65 billion on YouTube, Sequoia does not mind thou. Now growth slows, costs are rising, margins compressed: Operational cash Flow in Q4 down 9% from Q3 and they Cut Capex in Q4 just to stay above the water (FCF is flat 2006 over2005), I bet Video was in the first lines of cutting CAPEX. Vincent does not look happy and as a real proffi he start talking. Clearly Question is: will he be sacked back home, or we will get New Spin to cover up the story. You know how hard the Company which would like "to make information available to everybody in the world" with its own secrets and Blogging there could not be called really this word. I can not believe at the moment that it was authorised Goggle's position.

Google YouTube New Revelations of Strategic Wisdom: Quality will never be close to TV and "Pipes are Clogged".

They spend 1.65 billion just to get it? No quality, no broadband:

"New Internet TV services such as Joost and YouTube may bring the global network to its knees, Internet companies said on Wednesday, adding they are already investing heavily just to keep data flowing. Google (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile , Research), which acquired online video sharing site YouTube last year, said the Internet was not designed for TV.
It even issued a warning to companies that think they can start distributing mainstream TV shows and movies on a global scale at broadcast quality over the public Internet.
"The Web infrastructure, and even Google's (infrastructure) doesn't scale. It's not going to offer the quality of service that consumers expect," Vincent Dureau, Google's head of TV technology, said at the Cable Europe Congress." (WOW! S.)

"One cable chief executive, Duco Sickinghe from Belgian operator Telenet (TNET.BR: Quote, Profile , Research), said it was "the best news of the day" to hear that Google could not scale for video." (I agree, it made my day as well S.)

All it means, that day when you can sell tons of Ads in copyrighted material taken for nothing with broadcast quality will never come, YouTube means CAPEX, more CAPEX, and some more CAPEX: blades, electricity without any business model yet. But Operational Cash flow already squeezed by rising Cost and slowing rate of revenue growth (margins are falling) will not allow to do it and already in Q4 we can witness when they Trimmed Capex just to keep Free Cash Flow above the water (flat with 2005 at least with MC/CFC=95 at 501USD)

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?view=CN&symbol=GOOG.O&storyID=2007-02-07T174240Z_01_L0767087_RTRIDST_0_CABLE-WEBTV.XML&pageNumber=0&WTModLoc=InvArt-C1-ArticlePage2&sz=13

Commodities now we can trade them as stocks

Buy and Sell at any time at your discretion, these ETFs allow you to chose particular commodity, sector or even all commodities basket. Same caution and reseach advised before establishing any position as with "normal" stocks.

http://etfsecurities.com/en/welcome.asp

Tenke mining recent developments

These days Paul Conibear is busy promoting Tenke Mining to Investment Bankers at Africa Mining Congress in Zambia, on February 13th, 2007 visit to Tenke Fungurume Copper Project is planed. Paradigm Capital is attending the congress and hosting dinner there. They are the guys who are following TNK.to, participated in PP and conducted Research on the company. Company has now new design of its website and Presentation is to follow, we should expect few positive things:

1. Gecamines issue should be resolved.

2. Definite Feasibility study should be issued by Phelps Dodge.

3. Financing of Tenke's part construction cost should be organised.

4. Argentina properties update where the drilling is under way.

http://www.minellc.com/invitation_africa_07.pdf

Google and Analysts Romance will continue until the Last Drop

I have already get used to it: that they never ask any Really important questions, about click fraud, source of revenue, operational cash flow or Real Earnings which are below street expectations without Tax deals done in December just before end of the Q4, but this spin on Disaster is really amazing:

"BEIJING (AP) -- China's second-biggest Web portal Sohu.com Inc. said Tuesday its fourth-quarter earnings fell 32 percent, weighed down by higher costs, causing shares to drop in U.S. after-hours trading.
Quarterly earnings dropped to $6.1 million, or 16 cents per share, from $8.9 million, or 23 cents per share a year earlier. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial forecast a profit of 17 cents per share.
Revenue rose 16 percent to $34.4 million from the same period of 2005, but missed Wall Street's expectation for $35.5 million.
Sohu, which trails Sina.com among Chinese Internet content providers as measured by revenue, said the bulk of its sales came from online advertising. Ad revenue grew 23 percent year-over-year.
But results were hurt in part by a sharp rise in advertising costs. Brand advertising costs rose 66 percent to $7.1 million, while search-ad costs increased by 56 percent to $1.7 million over"

Looks for me like rather honest and straight forward reporting of Disastrous Q4 results, but I can not get it right without help from friendly Analyst:

"Analyst Safa Rashtchy of Piper Jaffray & Co. said Sohu's results were sound despite the lower earnings. He said a fall had been expected due to regulatory changes for wireless services that have hit revenues for all Chinese providers.
Sohu is still one of the best-positioned companies to profit from China's booming online ad market, he said.
"I thought it was a good performance," Rashtchy said. "Their advertising business is still very healthy."

The same guys are covering Google - they will see "results were sound despite the lower earnings" right until the last drop in share price.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070206/earns_china_sohu.html?.v=3

Google actual earnings in Q4 2006 was only 2.8USD with normalised tax rate

I have already wrote about Slowing Growth, MC/FCF=95 against Yahoo!'s 28.9, falling Operational cash flow by 9% in Q4 over Q3, saturation point in traffic with Down Trend, Technical Damage, trimming of CAPEX to save Free Cash Flow which is barely flat, but everybody was exited about Earnings and how they "beat" the street. Another surprise here: 13% "Efficient Tax rate" was very handy this Q they have reported EPS 3.29. If we will read ER we will find out that Income before income tax was 1184733, we will apply stated by Google 26% Tax (which is also rather interesting rate) and so normalise tax rate within the year without One Time Benefit due to deal with IRS (they call it "APA" :"Our effective tax rate will be greater in 2007 under the APA than it would have been without it." Surprise, Never Sacrify Party for Tomorrow's Morning.) In plane English if this One Time benefit would not happen now Earnings will be ONLY 1184733*(1-0.26)=876.702 mln USD against 313459 mln shares with Q4 EPS=2.80! way below Street expectations. And the price for it - higher Tax rate in the future. If this deal was not stricken in December 2006 (!) stock will be already below 400 today. Very good timing and clever game as usual.

Google another Blow from Yahoo!

I have posted before about Google Saturation Point and its Down Trend in Daily Reach it is interesting to find conformation:
"By Nathan Weinberg
Nielsen//Netratings has released their search engine market share numbers for December 2006, and their year-over-year gains show that Yahoo, while having just under half the market share of Google, is growing faster than Google is. They show Google with 3.035 billion searches in December, up 22.6% from the year before, and Yahoo with 1.412 billion searches, up 30.1% from December 2005. This is kind of shocking, given that conventional wisdom is that Google is outpacing Yahoo, as the Y! slowly falls behind."

http://google.blognewschannel.com/archives/2007/01/29/yahoo-growing-slightly-faster-than-google

Google Earnings Institutions Media Hype VS Common Sense Meditation. CS

I hope you have already get the idea what we are doing here, we are thinking. We do not hit instantly Buy button when Institutions are issuing Buy recommendation (we do not have one) and we never Trust our money or our Right to make Decisions to Anyone. We treasure this Freedom and grateful for it to exist in our life. It is not that we are so clever or arrogant or happen to know everything, we just have been there already in the land of quick money and Strong Buy recommendations on ENRON, WORLDCOM, TYCO...you name it - right to the edge of the cliff. We know from experience that if we would like to have a nice martini in a nice place we have to put some work into the process, we do not like to see the life in TV with some mad guys enjoying our money (you get the hint who are really Mad) we like TO LIVE the life and not be parted with our money buying on the tips and following investment advice. That is why we like to read, to think and are using very sophisticated software tools like CASIO calculator in our quest for Value and we are really enjoying it, otherwise it will be so boring. We like the BIG TRENDS, we never chasing 20 or 40 percent because we already know that Thousand things could go wrong on our way to "Home Run" and only enough Value Upside Realisation Potential could justify our Entry with Hard Earned Cash at the Right Time. That is why we like to Draw, pause, look from aside and put another line...it is more like Art for us. "It is not possible and everything is Efficient here" - will stop us educated reader, we will leave this battle to PhD at Universities and at Google (if they are not busy Selling). We have never found such thing (it is like with Weapons of Mass Destruction) - we happen to know different guy who would like to call him Sir and Mister Market (he could even prefer to call him Master but time has changed and we are different now and know how to handle his "maniac depressive" character) and he never get it straight, you know all these "Buy" and "contained inflation with all-excluded-inflationary-items", sometimes he gets nasty and Strong Innovative Companies (mostly in the area of accounting practices) are going into oblivion. Even whole economies or countries or their currencies sometimes seize to exist, because as Sir John Templeton has put it "The four most dangerous words in investing are "it's different this time". We have respect for his style and ready to learn, from him and other old wise guys with money and dignity (even Guys from Google are trying to back link to ONE, I always would like to tell them that their share structure is little bit complicated, poor Joe could find one day that even if he will buy all shares Clever Guys are still controlling his company). This guys are good teachers because they have everything and quick buck is not on their mind rather Legacy is keeping them busy giving to us their wisdom. We tend to be critical of all these "Buy" and "Rising Target" and "Estimates" (of Buyers stupidity?) from young analyst from Big Houses, it looks like sometimes they did not invested in CASIO or have tendency to see only part of figures and are using a lot of monkey language messing up with GAAP and NON GAAP on one page. Big Houses always wins and stays, young guys are going, sometimes they are punished, sacked and even baned for life, but you know - it is not easier for you, your money is gone. You do not even ask sometimes curiosity sake how could it happen? Big House could not afford Casio or it just happen to have Big Positions in recommended stock which need to be unfolded. You know already this MR Market trick: for every happy Seller he needs to find a Sucker - called Buyer or Institutional Client (it is easy to find Suckers when you give them due respect or even better when they manage OTHER PEOPLE MONEY like pension funds come to mind). Why it is always We here? I am really think that if you are still here we are thinking alike and just putting these notes together in order to profit from Common Sense and Discipline, because we know already that there is third very important component for Treasure Hunt in line with Value Upside Realisation Potential and Time - it is Discipline in Execution of our strategy in relation to MR Market. He will challenge us first with NON Believers, then he will try to shake us out. Then we will have to come over "wall of worry" and when we will think that everything is right and feel Confident another blow will come, but the most challenge will be in Suckers' time, when everything will be perfect and everybody will be posting comments here and we will feel proud of our wisdom, but we will be prepared: we will look in the mirror every morning for this magic word SUCKER on our forehead, we will talk to taxi drivers and...we will listen to Big Houses. And when taxi driver will tell us that he has sold Google to buy Junior Silver company and we will see on CNBC scream Buy, we will Draw our Lines, calmly pick up the phone (we will not Trust Email by that time) and say Sell. OK, so what about Google? Same old, same old - time to look in the Mirrors, I have already wrote about Slowing Growth, MC/FCF=95 against Yahoo!'s 28.9, falling Operational cash flow by 9% in Q4 over Q3, saturation point in traffic with Down Trend, Technical Damage, trimming of CAPEX to save Free Cash Flow which is barely flat, but everybody was exited about Earnings and how they "beat" the street. Another surprise here: 13% "Efficient Tax rate" was very handy this Q they have reported EPS 3.29. If we will read ER we will find out that Income before income tax was 1184733, we will apply stated by Google 26% Tax (which is also rather interesting rate) and so normalise tax rate within the year without One Time Benefit due to deal with IRS (they call it "APA" :"Our effective tax rate will be greater in 2007 under the APA than it would have been without it." Surprise, Never Sacrify Party for Tomorrow's Morning.) In plane English if this One Time benefit would not happen now Earnings will be ONLY 1184733*(1-0.26)=876.702 mln USD against 313459 mln shares with Q4 EPS=2.80! way below Street expectations. And the price for it - higher Tax rate in the future. If this deal was not stricken in December 2006 (!) stock will be already below 400 today. Very good timing and clever game as usual.

Google Big Picture Fighting Gravitation With Double Top Reversal

Google Technical Damage MA50 is Broken and retested in Down Trend

Canadian Capped Gold Index Big Picture Bullish Flag Formation

Canadian Capped Gold Index Break Out and Retest of MA50

Juniors Silver Seven Break Out and Retest of resistance line

Google will Hardly be able to Comply with Viacom request

The Viacom story is developing further will it be the trigger to break down 450 base of the recent Double Top:
"This is very difficult to do in a comprehensive way. I was VP of product development at Napster when the RIAA and Federal judge asked us to filter out all copyrighted music. It was difficult with music...it will be nearly impossible for video.
The problem is completeness. You can put together hashing algorithms and "finger printing" techniques to find the obvious stuff...maybe 80% of teh copyrighted content. The remaining 20% is nearly impossible to identify with precision and completeness.
The judge in the Napster case demanded 100% compliance, not 90% or 95%...100%. There was no way to effectively do it so the judge just shut Napster down.
The truth is that Viacom probably couldn't provide a 100% accurate list of their clips either.
This could get ugly.
For a look at the inside story of Napster read my blog post http://dondodge.typepad.com/the_next_big_thing/2005/10/napster_the_ins.html
Don Dodge"

http://www.internetoutsider.com/2007/02/viacom_tries_to.html#comments

Google YouTube deal very interesting angle from Admin

It is very interesting angle on YouTube deal, from the press we can think that for Sergey's native country it could be normal conduct of business. Let us hope for Google's shareholders sake that he was grown up in America.
I think that Google is very close to Reckoning Day and smell of cooking oil is all over their financials with tax rate of 13% in Q4, only to "beat" the street.
When you would think about possible scam opportunities with prosecutor's approach (in style of ENRON Smartest guys in the room)in all business arrangements here you will find that it is really very creative set up: nobody really knows where from the money are coming, you have financial incentive to allow click fraud in order to bring more revenue, you have partner networks where you are paying money - who organize all these "partner" networks. Is it a-la-Fastow style or really independent entities, you can easily "smooth" the earnings with management of this relations and ability to play with SBC and Tax rate is really amazing. I do hope that it is impossible after Enron and scandal of these magnitude is not needed in order to bring this valuation closer to reality.
The truth is that Daily Reach has saturated and going down while MSN's is up and Yahoo's is flat, margins are declining, growth is slowing and expenses are rising, they even had to trim CAPEX in Q4 in order not to kill Free Cash Flow below 2005, it is flat and market cap to FCF ratio is at 95(!) compare to yahoo's 28.

Google is losing to MSN where Daily Reach is rising and Yahoo's is Flat: Competition is hitting up

Google has reached The Saturation Point in Daily Reach and Trend is Down

Google Vs Common Sense Case Fundamentals 3 Analyses Valuation Earnings

Google Vs Common Sense Case Fundamentals 2 Analyses Valuation Earnings

Google Vs Common Sense Case Fundamentals 1 Valuation Earnings

Google Vs Common Sense Case Technical Picture After Earnings

Google Growth Story has Ended, Game of Musical Chairs will Begin, SELL if you can

Actual results reported today is even Worse then in my recent projection:

Free Cash Flow for the Q4 2006 is ... only 0.544 bln USD vs my projection of 0.61 bln USD and it is with Tax rate of 13% (?!) for Q4 and 23% (?!) for the whole year. Do I smell a cooking oil here? With such creative accounting earnings are meaningless, we really can try to understand the value here only by Free Cash Flow Ratio to recent capitalization. Total FCF for 2006 is 1.112+0.544=1.656 vs projected 1.722. The Google market cap of outstanding 313 mln shares at the closing price 501.5 is 157 bln USD.

MC/FCF ratio is 95!

Yahoo! has MC/FCF ratio of ... 28.9.

Growth story has ended here and we have Great Company with Completely Unsustainable Valuation. Perception of the crowd is so far away from reality that nobody is even checking numbers any more.

When you will normalize all the accounting tricks with taxes and SBC and R&D tax credit you can understand that real picture here is Slowing Rate of Growth.

Free Cash Flow as Ultimate Measure of Company ability to generate cash is indicating that Company is unable generate enough Cash in order to sustain valuation, it is under compression and MC/FCF is approaching Totaly Insane Level.

If we will apply "normal" ratio of 40 for fastest growing company, leader in the market and real innovator we will come to possible market cap of 66.24 bln USD which will bring us to Target Price of USD 212.

It looks like MR Market is starting to hesitate about share price of this enterprise.

Once The Double Top will be confirmed by Sell Off with significant volume the Reversal Pattern will dominate on this stock for the whole year.

I will keep you posted (those who will not be forced to Sell PC or unable to pay for electricity).

Tenke Mining Buy at channel support line

KB Home Bear Market in Housing just started

Google is losing its ability to hold our interest to competitors.

It is very interesting to find out from this very well written article that Google is actually losing competative game in retention of interest from the internet audience and its importance and further accepted by the investment crowd "implide value" are way overated which is becoming evident in technical picture and deteriorating fundamentals :

"Key Observations
Only 20 domains capture a whopping 39% of all our time spent online.
Only 2.1% of our time is spent on Google.com (GOOG) (includes all sub-domains). This surprised me somewhat, given how much I think I use Google everyday. I still think I use Google quite a bit, but now realize I don’t spend much time on the site itself. Google is NOT a portal with loads of content. Gmail and Google News are the only services that I spend considerable time on. Search, Maps, etc are quick look-up utilities, as they should be.
Even if one adds time spent on Google's YouTube.com (#12) to Google.com’s (#5) tally — it still only adds up to 2.7%, and is well below time spent on Ebay.com (EBAY) (#4).
MySpace (NWS) (#1) is miles ahead of Yahoo! (#2), however Yahoo! impresses. Yahoo holds a significant lead over Google+YouTube.com, Microsoft's (MSFT) MSN+Live.com and AOL+AIM.com. Yahoo simply needs to merge with MSN to take #1 (hint hint)
The presence of Adultfriendfinder.com on this list is surprising, but hey, everyone needs a friend, or two!"

http://internet.seekingalpha.com/article/25309

Weekend Puzzle, Avino Silver Break Out in the making

Spot ten differences in following formations:

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?GOOG

and

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?TNK.TO

Maybe soon we will find out that these stocks are really in different stages of market perception of thier value and noone should trust to any trading system or even me ...without thinking, look at P&F projections.

I hope you did not miss after your DD Entry point in Goldies and My Silver Gang watch out for ASM.v break out:

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ASM.V

Avino Silver President's Interview

Major catalysis:

- infrastructure is in place;
- past producing Silver mine with resources;
- could be put into production within 12-18 months;
- exploration drilling.

http://www.wallst.net/superstocks/superstocks_profile.asp?ticker=asgmf

GOOGLE is in Mathematically Perfect Reversal Double Top Formation

Market Update. CS

I hope that apart from trading (calls SSRI and SLW) you had a good look on some Juniors for investing, my take is that biggest money to be made in Juniors on the edge of feasibility/production side, to get into nice discovery is always welcome as well. Take a look at my crazy staff: TNK.to, TNR.v. Silvers: ASM.v, SRLM.ob, MGN, SST.v. New positions in CUU.v and CNU.v are doing nicely. I had a nice run in Uranium PNN.ax, UNX.ax, JNN.v, EMC.to.

Just recently one Russian guy set up investment fund with 900 mil USD to invest in Gold mining stocks in Switzerland: as price of gold will move valuation for OZ in the ground will move as well from recently 60-100 USD for OZ to 200. Juniors with resources in compliance to NI43-101 will explode.

We need just One present of Google valuation to spike Silver market.

Disclosure: for amusement and educational purposes only, no investment advise is given in any articles on this blog. (yea: I am GREEEDY and UNPROFESSIONAL could not do as good as others with Strong Buy on GOOG)

Google Bear Case Update

Please check Hard Data on Google Case for complete picture:

I will apply to my analyses latest analyst projection of sequential revenue growth of 18% Q4 on Q3 and latest Yahoo! Figures, (by the way Technicals weekly at BUY for YHOO, but I am not buying and not engaging anyone to do it in any case.)

So lets look at Google: Total Free Cash Flow for nine months is 1.112. If we will project Rev growth for Google at 18% for Q4 vs 9.3% for Q3 they will make Rev Q4 3.2 bio USD (in line with based on PWC and 41% of market 3.2) Net cash from operations at 37% of Rev 3.2 will be 1.184, if we apply 20% growth for NCFO in Q4 (vs +19% Q3) we will get 1.2 so lets assume NCFO will be in the middle = 1.19. What about Capex? I think it will be increasing dramatically with moving into video: broadband, storage, new blades, electricity. But if we even apply same growth to capex as to Rev +18% (they said it will be bigger then Rev growth, Q3 was +29%) Capex Q4 will be 0.581. So, Free Cash Flow in Q4 will be NCFO-CAPEX=0.61 and total FCF 2006 will be 1.722 If stock will not move from 479.05 we have MC=146.66 billion MC/FCF=85.2! YHOO had FCF 1.267 in 2006 (lower then lowered recently) with MC at 36.67 their ratio is MC/FCF=28.9 If the Google will manage to make even 2.9 EPS in Q4 (+23%) - it is average analyst estimation now in Yhoo (do not forget annual charge for all those "to be expensed option related expenses which they did not account in past Qs) GAAP 2006 will be 9.54. So with GOOG at 479.05 we have company with 2006 est MC/FCF=85.6, P/E=50.2, P/S=13.7 with slowing growth in EPS and Revenue and most important with dramatic compression in FCF. YouTube will bring dilution, much more CAPEX in Video Game and No revenue so far. What is the more reasonable valuation of Google: if we give GOOG MC/FCF=40 (38% over YHOO for leadership and "strength") MC with 1.722 FCF must be 68.88 billion with 306.16 million shares outstanding (YAHOO! finance)...225 share price. When MR Market will figure it out I do not know, but I think that this valuation is unsustainable.

TNR Gold Presentation

Finally management compiled more or less all information in One Place:

http://www.professionalcommunications.ca/TNRpresentation_files/v3_document.htm

Commodities Correction Is Over

HUI is preparing for Launch!

I do not need ? mark, could not agree more:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hommelberg/jan222007.html

Bernanke officially confirmed Bear Market for US Dollar for years to come

Have fun listen 3rd hour of Broadcast on Jan, 20th 2007

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

Avino Silver is close to Break out from Consolidation

Avino Silver and Gold Mines

Avino Silver and Gold is one of the Juniors with most OZ resources in the ground at recent price:

http://www.howlett-research.com/Research%20Reports/Avino%20Silver-Gold%20Howlett%20Research%20Report%209-4-06.pdf

message from the president of ASM.v:

http://www.silverstrategies.com/CompanyProfileNewIE.aspx?ticker=ASM.V

TNR Gold Announces Winchester Phase II Exploration Results

In July 2006 they reported hole 06-45 with 23.6m of 1.9 g/t

Now in 5 holes 4 returned gold mineralisation with:

DDH 06-53 with 13.4m of 1.22 g/t and DDH 06-52 with 9.2 m of 1.96 g/t

Primary focus for 2007 will stay on Winchester Zone.

They are talking here about Nova Gold's Donlin Creek multi million OZ Au type of mineralisation. Winchester zone is 16 km south of TNR GOLD's Shotgun property optioned from Nova Gold (50% ownership) where 1 mil OZ Au in inferred resources reported by Nova Gold.

Now the question is whether this discovery could be proved to be Low Grade Bulk Tonnage Deposit with few millions OZ Au.

Management just granted themselves options at Cad 0.2, so we can expect more news and money coming into this story.

It is very nice addition to recent CU Discovery in Argentina with Minera Andes.

http://tnrgoldcorp.com/news/tnrnr011907.pdf

TNR Gold La Carolina Project Exploration Commences

It is going to be Hot Summer in Argentina this year on TNR Gold properties:

Minera Andes in Los Azules

Tenke Mining Batidero, Northern Properties optioned to CVRD

"La Carolina:

El Camino is partially exposed on surface by old workings. In 1988, Argentina’s Direccion de Fabricaciones Militares (DGFM) drilled 13 vertical holes on the showing. All of the holes intersected gold mineralization. The best hole intersected 138m averaging 2.5gpt Au and included 25m averaging 4.2gpt Au, 33.9m averaging 1.22gpt Au and 29m averaging 1.44gpt Au. As part of an extensive drill program in 2004, an inclined hole was drilled to confirm the DGFM results and intersected 20m averaging 1.43gpt Au, 34m averaging 0.52gpt Au and 6m averaging 1.41gpt Au. This drilling confirms the existence of an intensely altered gold bearing hydrothermal breccia pipe with chalcedony and pyrite matrix which suggests that the pipe remains open to depth and the true width of the pipe remains to be determined.
The Mogote target, located 1,000m south of El Camino, was drilled by DGFM and intersected 3m averaging 59.5gpt Au in the basement rocks in contact with the Tertiary volcanic rocks. This target has not been followed up and remains open at depth and along strike."

http://tnrgoldcorp.com/news/tnr_011707.asp

Apple Technicals are signaling Reversal with Double Top Formation

Google Advertisers are Cutting spending

It will be very difficult to justify valuation with diminishing rate of growth at this Insane levels of capitalization:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/google-advertisers-cutting-spending-keyword/story.aspx?guid=%7BE9B9CEA8%2DEA47%2D48C6%2DA91F%2D69F53F018AE2%7D&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

GOOGLE we need just 1% of its Market Cap to Launch Silver Rocket

Tenke Mining is unknown to Wall Street Crowd Developing Producer of Strategic Resources

Sterling Mining is Another Forgotten Treasure

Mines Management is one of the Silver Play Most OZ AG in the Ground

XAU Juniors Stage Play is flirting with 150 Long Term Breakout

HUI New Entry Point New Wave Up 3rd subwave indicating following Gold Move Up

Silver Move will be More powerful then Gold after consolidation

Gold is consolidating before powerful move Up

OIL New Bear Market or Correction?

TNR Gold Minera Andes Los Azules 6-10 billion Cu lb Target

221 m 1.62% Cu and 173 m Cu 1.0% are on TNR Gold's property. President of Minera Andes is talking about Significunt Size Cu Discovery of 6 to 10 billion Cu lb Target. Scoping Study is underway.

http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2007/01/tnr-gold-minera-andes-los-azules-cu.html

TNR Gold Los Azules Cu Discovery property rights

Minera Andes - Xstrata Agreement:

"Xstrata InterestAfter completion of the scoping study, the data will be presented to Xstrata Copper Americas, with whom Minera Andes has a letter of intent for Los Azules. The letter provides that Minera Andes can earn a 100 percent interest in Xstrata's portion of Los Azules by spending at least US$1 million on the property from the date of the agreement (November 2005) in order to produce an economic assessment. If the study shows the project to be potentially economically viable and can produce 100,000 tonnes of copper per year for ten years, then Xstrata will have the right to "back in" to earn a 51 percent interest in Los Azules. To do this, Xstrata would have to reimburse Minera Andes three times over for its expenditures on the property, complete a bankable feasibility study within five years and assume underlying property commitments. "

Xstrata - TNR Gold Agreement:

"Xstrata AgreementMinera Andes owns a 100 percent interest in its land that makes up the southern half of the property. The Xstrata lands (see map) are subject to a letter of intent whereby Minera Andes has the right to earn a 100 percent interest in Xstrata's property by spending at least US$1.0 million on the property over the next four years, making payments to keep the property in good standing and producing a preliminary economic assessment (to NI 43-101 standards). If the preliminary assessment shows the project to be potentially economically viable at a potential production rate of 100,000 tonnes (200 million pounds) of copper per year for 10 years then Xstrata will have a one time back-in right to earn a fifty one percent interest in the combined properties by making a cash payment to Minera Andes of three times Minera Andes' expenditures on the property, completing a bankable feasibility study within five years and assuming underlying property commitments. In the event that the preliminary assessment does not meet the size criterion contemplated above, Xstrata's interest would reduce to a first right of refusal on any subsequent sale of the property. All lands that make up the property's mineral applications are subject to a provincial mouth of mine royalty of between zero and three percent. This royalty will be negotiated with the province of San Juan as the project advances. The Xstrata lands to be acquired by Minera Andes are subject to two underlying agreements. The first agreement covering approximately 1,400 hectares has remaining payments totaling US$845,000 to acquire a 100 percent of these lands. The second agreement (WITH TNR GOLD Sufiy), covering the remainder of the Xstrata lands contains underlying payments totaling US$410,000, a US$1.0 million work commitment and a 25 percent buy back clause if a feasibility study is completed within 3 years of Xstrata/Minera Andes exercising the option to acquire the property, subject to payback to Xstrata/Minera Andes of two times the expenditures on the property. If the vendor buys back 5 percent or less there interest will convert to a one percent net smelter royalty."

http://www.minandes.com/s/LosAzules.asp

TNR Gold, Minera Andes Los Azules Cu discovery Presentation

TNR Gold owns Northern part of Los Azules Property (where both multymeter holes with Cu more than 1.0% are situated) which is optioned to Xtrata with buy back rights:
"TNR owns 100% of the Los Azules Project. TNR has an agreement with Xstrata Copper plc (Xstrata) giving Xstrata an option to earn up to 100% of this Project, with TNR retaining a back-in right of 25% and a 2% NSR. MAI has made an agreement with Xstrata that gives MAI the right to earn up to 100% of Xstrata's option."
Drill results:
"TNR Gold Corp. (TNR.v) is pleased to announce drill results from its Los Azules property in Argentina. Minera Andes Inc. (MAI.v), the project operator, has discovered significant high-grade copper on the Los Azules property. An 11-hole drill program returned intervals up to 1.62 per cent copper ovmeters metres and 1 per cent copper ovmeters metres in separate holes. The new core drilling focused on the previously defined enriched copper target in an area approximatelymeters metres by as much as 1,500 metres, defined by prior drilling. Drilling tested mineralization on both TNR'ss property as well as Minera Andes's adjacent lands. TNR's Los Azules property consists of 20,000 acres located in El Indio gold belt."

http://tnrgoldcorp.com/news/tnr_052406.asp

Now you can listen to presentation about MAI.v and its discovery on TNR Gold's property:


http://www.silverstrategies.com/CompanyProfileNewIE.aspx?ticker=MAI.V

My take is that the story will make its way to the spotlight and price of TNR.v with zero before the point will be History.

TNK mining: Bullish Reversal Hammer candle on Weekly

Please note that TNK.to almost touched MA50

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?TNK.TO

and developed Bullish Reversal Hammer on weekly chart: I think in the nearest future this will be remembered as very good Entry point.

HUI, Gold and Silver stocks update, back to business, Google is under siege again!

Good read:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/swanson/jan082007.html

TNR Gold:

Minera Andes Drilling underway - best holes on TNR's property (optioned to Xtrata):

http://www.minandes.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=163529&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Minera-Andes-Commences-Drilling-At-Los-Azules-Project-Argentina-Previous-Dr...

TNK mining: stock was under pressure due to report in FT about "lack of transparency" in contracts made by Gecamines: there is always Risk in Emerging markets and countries like Congo particularly, but here I think we have one of the last opportunity to Buy great Company at low price, my point is:
1. Situation is known before as far as from 2005.
2. Congo needs this investments badly and stability is much more important now for newly elected president.
3. Now TNK is talking about debt financing and "formal revue" of the contracts will be necessary to obtain such financing, actually it will be latest development to secure the money for the project.

Technically Gold and Silver consolidating just before next Big move UP, time to buy what is most precious: most value in the ground SST.V, SRLM.OB, ASM.V, MGN. A lot of these guys will be in Vancouver on 21.01.2007 including TNR.V

Google is under attack again:
http://www.fuckedgoogle.com/

Admin declared that he is back again...

Google update, Tenke mining chart, TNR gold development.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?GOOG

I can not post my usual format now so you have to make some work, few notes:

- after last post on Daily GOOG slipped under MA50which is now became resistance;

- on Weekly GOOG developed SELL with MACD crossover;

- stock is just above support of previous tops of shoulders in FIRST TOP in Jan 2006 and Second Top in Triangle at 450.72;

- Point-and-Figure chart is pointing to Reversal with TP of 416, which will be only temporary resistance on its way back in my opinion.

Tenke mining - spot the difference: consolidating on Daily with solid support in 15.0-15.3 CAD, break out on Weekly with testing the resistance level, P&F TP is 24CAD short term. Many new developments will be in the next 1Q 2007:

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?TNK.TO

TNR Gold just in the beginning of Argentina exploration season we will be for an update and latest news from Minera Andes are encouraging: this is North Property which belongs to TNR.V optioned to Xtrata and then to MAI.V, Minera Andes is making new drilling on combined property and initialized scoping study to evaluate potential of the deposit:

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/061218/mineraandes_commences.html?.v=1

New PP at CAD0.20 and Warrants at 0.25 is making nice floor for good news acceleration in stock Value Recognition.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to Everyone.

I am on vacation and will post only ocationally.

Google is officially preparing to the Crash

We are talking about new incentive plan here, apart from usual "world spread" innovation I can find only one Real reason: stock is not going much higher and Insiders are the best people to know it and are not ready to work just for salary and worthless stock options. Apart from latest hype Google did not make much this year as stock, slowing growth and rising Capex will compress Free Cash Flow and stock will fall, technical picture is telling about it very loudly.

Needless to say I am in agreement with Scott Cleland:

From Henry Blodget (comments are his ones) http://www.internetoutsider.com/2006/12/google_stock_op.html#comment-26560983

"Analyst Scott Cleland weighs in with a list of negatives. I don't agree with any of them.
Cleland says the new plan will enable employees to "rush for the exits", creating a short-term culture in which employees don't care about the company's long-term value. He says a restricted stock plan would be much better, because it is long-term focused. What he may be missing is that the new options vest on the same schedule as the old ones and on the same type of schedule that "restricted stock" would vest. Employees will not be able to sell the new options sooner than the old options. They will just be able to collect some of the "time value" of the options that they would otherwise give up if they did not hold the options to term. This feature might encourage employees to sell earlier, but it should not trigger a rush for the exits any more than a cash salary would trigger one.
Cleland says the new program tells us that Google is having trouble hiring enough smart people because the stock price is so high (implication: they know it's overvalued). This may be true, but it doesn't undermine the idea of transferable options.
Cleland suggests that the program will lead to even more dilution for shareholders. This is only true if Google grants more options than they would have under the old program. They will probably do exactly the reverse: grant fewer options (because each option will be worth more). What Cleland may be missing is that by "transfering" their options to an investment bank, the employees will NOT be exercising the options. They will merely be selling them to another party (which may or may not exercise them at some future date). What matters is the number of options granted, not whether/when they are transferred.
Cleland says Google is arrogantly "innovating without permission" and should have checked with the SEC. According to Google, they DID check with the SEC. And, again, it's hard to see why the SEC would have a huge beef with an idea that's better for both shareholders and employees.
More alleged negatives? (I'm sure there are some--I just haven't heard any good ones yet)."

Tenke Mining made solid New High on Rising Volume

While Google is fighting with Common Sense, few guys are busy buying undervalued assets of Tenke mining (TNK.to CAD18.1), maybe they are the same guys which are advising you to buy...Google with Target Price of 600. I have been there...with strong Buy on Enron, Worldcom, Tyco...etc. We have got only one luxury in exchange for slipping away Time and our ability to Judge and make Decisions, it is Wisdom and life becoming History which can always teach something because nothing is really changing...

Google to Be afraid or Not to Be afraid?

Will or will not Big guys create competitor to YouTube will be dictated not by their ability to do so but by potential of the video market and their fight with mortal enemy to their copyrights: Google, which is violating any possible IP rights. Google is not more than very good index of Library, you can easely find any book, but you are coming for a book, and those who write them will prevail. Technical picture is predicting deteriorating fundamentals: monetising of YouTube will take much longer time and its "juicy business" at the first glance will turn out to be Capital Flash System which will become one more constrain on slowing growth of revenue and Free Cash Flow.

Google: Mark Cuban: Online Video Ad Market Will Collapse

How much Deal with YouTube and "Explosive Growth of Video Ads" priced into Google stock valuation?

http://internet.seekingalpha.com/article/22023?response_message=Welcome%20sufiy2004@yahoo.com!%20%20You%20are%20now%20logged%20in.

Media Giants Plot to take on YouTube

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/mediaentertainment/10326941.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

"Baidu.com, China's huge search engine, may soon announce an agreement with Microsoft. So it begins. China and Microsoft: A scrappy duo that's the world's last hope against the evil they call "Google." "

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/funnymoney/10326942.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Investment Thesis: Google will bring markets down, USD will depreciate, Gold, Silver, Uranium, Energy and other Things will prevail. CS

"If you would like to discuss USA economy go to China this week" - USD is melting down, take a break read "Empire of debt". No solutions, it is needed: to inflate out Debts, but move Must be gradual otherwise Financial shock will be unsustainable. I do not believe and hope that it will not happen - "the end of the world". Chinese are sitting on the Bomb of bursting USD so they will cooperate to the extend of Common Sense, so the move will be "gradual" but it will be enough to Explode Tiny PGM markets and particularly Juniors. In order to hedge themselves and to sustain explosive growth of new SuperPower China and Bricks (Brazil, Russia, India, China) are securing with available dollars Real Assets all over the world. It is government policy and they are acting very aggressively. Look no further then Tenke mining (TNK.to) the project will rely on Chinese building railroads in Africa, be sure not for charity, but to be able to ship goods smoothly into the Dragon hungry mouth. The real War I hope will be prevented with changing Power in USA, but the WAR for Assets is just in its infancy. Changing of power in USA could coincide with Bear market important Low in General market. Study a lot, be the first to secure Mud in the Ground with Gold/Silver/Uranium/Copper Hope in it, management is crucial, discipline and common Sense. According to Jim Paplava reinflation will prevent markets from crash and reinflation means deteriation of USD and explosive growth in Gold and Silver. He used to be in the "Crash Camp" and from Spring changed his position to Reinflation. I still personally think that we should not take it for Granted and Mr Market will show its maniac depressive stance. So part of my positions are in Puts on Tech, Google - Indicator of Irrational Exuberance, Housing and Retail. If crash will not happen I will consider it as insurance and unrealized opportunity to increase my Core position. If something will Trigger Crash of any magnitude all markets could dip in the beginning and it will be good opportunity to increase Juniors positions with money made in Puts. All these are incredible risky and you should not trade your lunch on it. Just think for a while and decide for your Money the place to be: overinflated in Hopes of Saving the world ADVERTISEMENT Company which is advertising to overburden in Debts Consumers Things that they Are Not Needed or Things itself in the Raw State of Mud with Guys who knows how to find them and have proven record to turn this Mud into cash and this Mud itself is First Necessity for everyone who just flushed the toilet first time in their life with joy and wonder. (No offence here fox - you are the driving force of the New Economy in Real Things).

HUI place to be, particularly Juniors with most OZ in the ground

Google weekly Second Top in Reversal Double Top pattern

Google daily Reversal Head-and-Shoulders

Tenke mining Conference Call

This one is going to be Hard Currency, ultimate ATM machine to sell slowly at much higher levels to acquire juicy juniors:

Mention number of Analyst and Argentina properties outline...

http://www.tenke.com/s/Home.asp

Uranium Juniors

Couple of days ago Uranium gang looked weekly overbought to me, taken profit on few positions STM.v, EMC.to, half of JNN.v, ALS.v, some Australian will sell half. Down the road will be very good opportunity to reEnter the sector. Rotated money into silver gang which is at weekly buy at the moment.

Tenke Mining Receives Construction Approval From Phelps Dodge

This is what was discussed here "as fireworks" and Bull Market: Tenke Mining broke through previous MAY Top, new highs to come now...

"The initial project will focus on 103 million metric tons of oxide ore reserves. It is expected to be in full production in late 2008 or early 2009. During the first 10 years of mining, total annual production is projected to be approximately 250 million pounds of copper and 18 million pounds of cobalt. The life of the initial project is anticipated to be approximately 40 years." (!)

Few things to consider:

- PhD has approved construction meaning financing without further feasibility study release;

- if Freeport-McMoRan's Acquisition of Phelps Dodge will go as expected they are "told to be" even more aggressive;

-only half of the property explored, BHP was talking about ... 1.5 billion ton resource with Cu grade 3.0%, in all calculations for TNK.to TP and their presentation accounted "only" 500 million tons;

-no Argentinean projects' value in this current price, action to be taken by management to unlock that value...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/061206/200612060362078001.html?.v=1&printer=1

Google Clickfraud Issue is not going away

"There is little about Google's business that is more closely guarded than the issue of click fraud. Company officials say they take the issue seriously and have zero tolerance for fraudsters who generate bogus clicks on ads in order to profit. The search giant says it detects most fraudulent clicks before advertisers are ever billed and that industry concerns are overblown. But Google won't discuss specifically how it detects bad clicks or what percent it deems fraudulent, only that it's "less than 10%," saying such information could be helpful to would-be scam artists."

"Marketers are already anxious about fraud. A study by the Search Engine Marketing Professional Organization (SEMPO) slated for release on Dec. 4 found that 71% of advertisers are "worried" about click fraud, or describe it as a "moderate" or "significant" problem. That's down slightly from a year ago, but still a sizable issue. "

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/dec2006/tc20061204_923336.htm

Disclosure and Strategy

The most important: you must stay solvent long enough for your Idea to be realized. (Google is perfect example)
Core positions hold throughout MAY sell off, increased with taken profit before blast and leverage: debt and/or options. Core Juniors GOLD/Silver/Uranium alternative energy, all bought much lower, portfolio back to May high (with Losses in Google Puts accounted) with Major Buy in HUI. Leverage is going down, profits from SNDK puts, SSRI calls rolled over into juniours. Short Google, SEMIS, Housing, Retail, General Markets. Watch out major development in WWAT.ob very risky but with new financing this baby is going sing.
Stop wasting your time here if:
1. You believe that Market is Efficient.
2. You feel very confident - Sell OUT right now and take a break for 1 month.
3. You think that USD is going up and Oil down.
4. You think that Chinese are stupid buying with USD all possible resources OIL/COAL/URANIUM/OIL Sands/Metals and not your beloved GOOGLE which will feed everybody on Mother Earth in Couple of years.
Until recent time from June Short strategy on Google is losing money and working as hedge to Major melt down in the Markets. Only Core positions and Counter trade in SSRI calls at bottom in May/June counterweight time mistakes in Google Trade. Could decisions be less emotional - for sure: then I would stop this excises, enjoy if it is up to your Vibe - a lot of money paid for this education.

Gold, Silver, Uranium, Tenke mining, Silverstone Resources only tiny amount of panicking GOOGlers' money will blow up "golden" Sector

GOOGLE: fighting Gravitation