Paul Craig Roberts: US is Completely Busted, Non-Delivery of Gold - Crash the System, War in Ukraine TNR.v MUX GDX GLD

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  Gold is above $1,370 today and US Dollar is testing another low of 79.30. Paul Craig Roberts  is pouring very cold water on the hot heads from the "DC Command Centre". All these War games can be ended in the very real tears, world is too much interconnected today in order just to punish "the bad guy". Somebody wants the War too bad with any excuse and it is not the good idea at all. Ongoing Financial War already distorting the markets and U.S. recovery is too weak to handle and further external shocks. The very least what BRICS can do now is they will speed up their De-Dollarisation plans.

Junior Miners: Gold Breaks $1,360 As US Dollar Slides Further Down TNR.v MUX GDX GLD ABX NG RGLD

"Gold breaks $1,360 today with US Dollar sliding down to 79.63. China's worries and Ukraine situation are putting futures under pressure. Could it be that the Copper slump is the counter strike at Chinese shadow financial system in the ongoing Financial War? We will never get the clear answers here, but US Dollar is sliding further today and Copper at this levels can not indicate the healthy growing economy. 

  Gold is climbing the "Wall Of Worry" in its new Bull market and we have a lot of calls that this rally will be short lived. Shorts will be surprise and will have to cover again providing more fuel to this move. Now the second wave of advance in Gold Junior miners should confirm this rally. Major companies are solidly off the lows from December, but smaller companies were still lacking the bids behind. With rising Gold price the best projects held by juniors will come on the investor's radar screens."

Koos Jansen: China’s Road To Secret Gold Accumulation TNR.v MUX GLD GDX ABX NG.to RGLD

  

  Koos Jansen research provides more confirmation of the state-level military plan implemented by China in order to accumulate Gold under the radar screen of the market observers. Explosive situation around Ukraine will ignite further catalyst for De-Dollarisation and China and Russia maybe already much better prepared for it than a lot of Western policy makers really understand. The Financial War could have been already won long time ago. We are due for a lot of surprises in the Gold and Currency markets coming out in the next few weeks.

US Dollar Slides To The New Low 79.51 As Ukraine Situation Moves To Economic Warfare

  

  US Military Complex can not be challenged by anyone in the open conflict, but once things are moving into the field of asymmetric economic warfare tactics of Financial Wars U.S. has a problem. Economy can not really handle any external shocks now, Bubble in the equity markets is not translating into the healthy growth so far. Any serious correction in the market can bring very weak economic data further in the proximity of potential recession. And this is where Ukraine situation is coming so handily to the FED's rescue out of Taper. Do you really think that the banks want the tigthening of the money supply now? FED wants Weak US Dollar, FED wants Inflation and FED is ready to pause Taper at any excuse now. Further escalation around Ukraine situation will provide this excuse right in time when the economic data will be turning even weaker than now.

Gold Catalyst: Economist John Williams: Financial Collapse if Russia Sells U.S. Dollar Holdings TNR.v MUX GDX

  With Ukraine in the headlines Greg Hunter discusses with John Williams the complications for the US Dollar Reserve Currency Status of the ongoing Financial War. China has sold the record amount of US Treasuries in December and buying the record amount of Gold. Today US Dollar has crashed below 80.00 again and closed at 79.66. Russia has already warned US that any sanctions will come back to those who will implement it. With China siding with Russia we can expect the acceleration of De-Dollarisation now. 

Koos Jansen: Chinese Physical Gold Demand YTD 369t Up 51 % Y/Y TNR.v MUX GDX GLD RGLD ABX

  

  Koos Jansen continues his remarkable work reporting the real demand for Gold in China. According to his information this demand is on track for another record annualised so far and is up 51% on Y/Y basis. Geopolitical shift with the Ukraine situation will only add to this fire and ongoing Financial War will claim its victim US Dollar.

Currency Wars: The Yuan's Silent Scream - Portrait Of A Derivatives Bomb Being Detonated TNR.v MUX GDX GLD

"David Kranzler published a very interesting article confirming our discussion about the ongoing Financial War involving USA, Russia and China now. Bo Polny on the chart above presents his view about the implications of US Dollar crash below 80.00 level for the Gold market and you can find our thoughts on the links  below."

Dollar Crashed Below 80.00 What Is Next For Gold, Copper And Lithium? TNR.v MUX ILC.v GDX

"In a few words: they all are going much higher now. Let's discuss why we think it is going to be the case. What is coming next for stocks and commodities? The concept of Great Inflation in 2014 was first introduced here by Toby Connor article and so far the market was unfolding as he has predicted. The most important observation here is that not only we are seeing the first signs of increased money velocity and unfolding Inflation in the different Commodities Breakouts, but that FED is actively looking forward to create Inflation. Janet Yellen statements about desired level of Inflation were quite a revelation for the Central Banker to say the least. Never fight the FED and with the help of Russia and China US dollar will slide down even more and Inflation will be coming not only onto your grocery bills, where it was never gone, but even into the massaged government statistic reports."

In Gold We Trust:

Chinese Physical Gold Demand YTD 369t Up 51 % Y/Y

The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) is back on schedule publishing their trade reports on friday that cover the previous trading week. Last friday’s report covered the trading week February 17 – 21. For me the most important numbers is always the amount of physical gold withdrawn from the vaults as this equals Chinese wholesale demand. Withdrawals in week 8 (February 17 – 21) accounted for 49 tonnes, year to date there have been 369 tonnes withdrawn from the vaults. If we divide the later by the number of days of the corresponding period (52) we come up with an average demand of 7.09 tonnes per day – this includes weekends and the one week holiday at Lunar year when the SGE was closed.

I got a few request regarding demand compared to last year and daily moving averages. Great ideas which I have carried out (request are always welcome, we’re doing this together). Compared to last year demand is up 51 % over the same period. Of course we had the shocker in April 2013 when withdrawals exploded to 117 tonnes in week 17. I don’t expect any spikes that big this year so probably this year’s growth compared to 2013 in percentages will be decreasing when we’ll pass April. Nevertheless, the daily average of 2013 was (2197/365) 6.02 tonnes, while this year we’re up to 7.09 tonnes. China is on schedule to establish a new record, if the world can supply any more gold.

Although I’m not much of a technical guy, I made the following calculation for the 200 DMA. Because the withdraw numbers are weekly disclosed I divided 200 by 7 (days in a week) which equals 28.57. The 200 DMA in the chart below is the trend line of 28.57 red columns (weeks), which boils down to 200 days. The hight of the trend line still corresponds to the (weekly) withdrawal numbers on both axes. (200 DMA = 28.57 WMA)

We can see the the 200 DMA rising in 2013 to nearly 50 tonnes a week in June, then it fell slightly at the end of the year. Before the new year wholesale demand picked up again prior to an unprecedented buying spree on retail level and moved the trend line up at currently just under 50 tonnes a week.

The longer this insatiable demand continues the more I start to ask myself where this gold is coming from. We know from Swiss refineries they’re having a very hard time to source this much gold for China.

According to the World Gold Council all above ground gold accounts for 170,000 tons, in my opinion it’s impossible to know this amount. It’s a rather Keynesian thought that an institution can know how much grains of gold every single human being across the globe extracted from the earths crust in the history of humanity, and how all these grains were allocated or maybe lost throughout history. I think the total amount of above ground gold is as invisible as the hand that regulates the free market. Every economic agent can only be positive about it’s own gold holdings and decide to exchange these against goods or services, depending on the exchange rates set by the free market. Although all exchange rates are currently set by Keynes’ descendants, that doesn’t mean any institution knows the total amount of above ground gold.

It’s just a matter of strong and weak hands now. Most goldbugs are strong hands – because they not only hold gold for investment purposes, they also hold it because of their view on economic theory – while a random US citizen on food stamps that owns a golden earring is a weaker hand. Anyway, based on certain parameters (import, demand, mining) one would think that in coming months the price of gold and Chinese demand wil getin conflict; the situation simply can’t go on like this forever.

Meanwhile the mainstream media is slowly waking up to the possibility the price of gold has been manipulated for decades through the London fix, which in my opinion is just one aspect of the manipulation process. Although I’m sure this aspect will unravel the rest of the process as well. All in all lots of stress in the gold market, reflected by long periods of negative GOFO. I hope to write an article about the details of GOFO in the near future.

Overview Shanghai Gold Exchange data 2014 week 8

- 49 metric tonnes withdrawn in week 8  (17-02-2014/21-02-2014)

- w/w  - 23.86 %

- 369 metric tonnes withdrawn year to date

My research indicates that SGE withdrawals equal total Chinese gold demand. For more information read this, this, this and this.

This is a screen shot from the weekly Chinese SGE trade report; the second number from the left (blue – 本周交割量) is weekly gold withdrawn from the vaults in Kg, the second number from the right (green – 累计交割量) is the total YTD.

This chart shows SGE gold premiums based on data from the SGE weekly reports (it’s the difference between the SGE gold price in yuan and the international gold price in yuan).

Below is a screen shot of the premium section of the SGE weekly report; the first column is the date, the third is the international gold price in yuan, the fourth is the SGE price in yuan, and the last is the difference.

In Gold We Trust

Dollar Crashed Below 80.00 What Is Next For Gold, Copper And Lithium? TNR.v MUX ILC.v GDX

CS. In a few words: they all are going much higher now. Let's discuss why we think it is going to be the case. This week we had the very important move in the US Dollar:

"Initially US Dollar went up on the escalation of the situation in Ukraine - as any potential military action in the world is supposed to be positive for the U.S. Military Complex, but on Friday with major headlines from Moscow about Ukraine Dollar has dived decisively below 80.00 to the 79.78 close.After these U.S. actions in Ukraine considered as an insult by the Kremlin the least you can expect is selling of the US Treasuries by Russia and, maybe, already accelerating of selling by China as well . They have been already smelling the rat about the USTs Game Of Musical Chairs for a long time. It is just too personal. None of these two countries - or it will be better say leaders - would like to be liberated next in any circumstances."

 What is coming next for stocks and commodities? The concept of Great Inflation in 2014 was first introduced here by Toby Connor article and so far the market was unfolding as he has predicted. The most important observation here is that not only we are seeing the first signs of increased money velocity and unfolding Inflation in the different Commodities Breakouts, but that FED is actively looking forward to create Inflation. Janet Yellen statements about desired level of Inflation were quite a revelation for the Central Banker to say the least. Never fight the FED and with the help of Russia and China US dollar will slide down even more and Inflation will be coming not only onto your grocery bills, where it was never gone, but even into the massaged government statistic reports.

Toby Connor: Dollar Breaks Down, Great Inflation to Push Gold And Silver Much Higher TNR.v MUX GDX GLD SLV

Toby Connor: The Great Inflation Of 2014 - Gold And Silver To Rise TNR.v, MUX, GDX, GLD, SLV

"Toby Connor provides very interesting technical view on the general markets, Commodities, Gold and Silver. Nobody can find inflation these days and his take on the final rise and bust in the general markets is very intriguing. Our own observations confirm the CRB - Commodities Index breakout and that Gold is knocking on the $1270 with huge break out to the upside after that. Supply and Demand picture provides further support to the technical observations in Gold and Silver markets these days. Where the Gold will come from in the future with China record buying continued? M&A activity will be driving the next Bull market in Gold and Silver miners."

  Today we would like to share very interesting conversation from Jim Puplava's Financial Sense:

"Erik Townsend and Chris Puplava co-host this week in a special edition of the Big Picture. The first topic is “When will Janet Blink?”, refers to new Fed Chair Janet Yellen, and if she will stay the course in taking the Fed’s tapering program back to zero stimulus. Erik contends that it’s impossible to trade or invest using conventional wisdom in this environment, and only elite insiders know in advance what to expect from the Fed."

  They are discussing at depth the very similar scenario presented by Toby Connor: when weak US Dollar will actually push Equity markets even higher as it happens in the first stages of Inflation environment. Once the first signs of Inflation will make its way into the official statistic equities will provide the certain level of protection of wealth as "they own the real assets". Here we will not digress to discuss the real assets behind WhatsApp 19 Billion valuation by Facebook.

  Commodities will be the major beneficiaries of this trend. On the CRB chart below you can see the huge breakout by Commodities from the down trend:

  Commodities have created the very big consolidation base with Double Bottom Reversal with Lows in Summer of 2012 and in the late Fall of 2014. The Second Low in November 2014 was confirmed by retest in December 2014 and very strong breakout after that. All enormous liquidity created by QE on the world-wide scale is finally sipping into the real world and pushing the commodities prices Up.

  Gold and Silver were one of the first to benefit and we have seen the very important confirmation by the Gold and Silver Stocks, but even more important is the unprecedented demand from China for Gold now.

Gold And Silver Break Crucial Levels Causing Massive Short Squeeze TNR.v MUX GDX GLD SLV RGLD SWC

Frank Holmes: These Gold Charts Will Make Your Heart Beat Faster TNR.v MUX GDX GLD ABX GG RGLD

  "Frank Holmes presents a very interesting set of charts supporting the bullish case for Gold and Gold stocks. Now with Gold crossing 200MA we have the game changer for the Gold marker. Professional traders have positioned themselves after 20MA was breaking out to the upside and smart money has followed after 50MA. Now the retail public will start buying the new Gold Bull leg.

  Number of Gold stocks with, McEwen Mining among them, has printed The Golden Cross already, when 50MA is crossing 200MA to the upside, confirming the bullish reversal pattern. It is very bullish set up and we expect the rally in Gold stocks to widen its base to include the smaller junior miners."

Hedgehog Trader ‏@HedgehogTrader  Feb 7

TNR Gold TNR.V is one of the most intriguing microcap stories I follow. #insidersbuying cc: @Sufiy @TedDixon @inkresearch

TNR Gold Insiders report: CEO And CFO Buying Shares. 

 Another very important confirmation is when insiders are buying into their own companies like in case with TNR Gold.

  GDX Gold Miners ETF has a very strong breakout from the December 2013 Low above MA50 and sitting right on that level retesting it now. All momentum indicators are still in positive territory. Gold and Silver price will be the major drivers here with the Catalyst for particular stock with the new discoveries and M&A activity.

  Copper should be the major beneficiary of the rising Inflation tide. 

  Sector was very volatile recently, but the emerging upside trend argument can be already made here as well. It must be confirmed by further strength and breaking out above the MA50. The most important confirmation of the rising Copper prices to come, as Glencore is talking about, is industry insiders M&A activity:

Rumour Mill: "CITIC Buying Into Pascua Lama" - Can Argentina Mining Really Make Its Come Back? TNR.v MUX ABX LCC.v

 "After the bidding war for Las Bambas Copper in Peru there are not so many world class copper assets left. M&A activity in Copper sector is heating up with ongoing deals on Glencore's Las Bambas, Hudbay's acquisition and OZ Minerals talks with potential partners. Now the projects like Los Azules copper will get more industry attention. We are following McEwen Mining and TNR Gold involved in this project, please read carefully all our disclaimers and do your own DD, as usual."

 Lithium sector has finally its come back now in style on the back of Tesla Gigafactory news:

  Lithium ETF has a definite breakout to the upside and Buy Volume signal and Lithium Stocks had an explosive move this week from very depressed valuations. After the initial excitement time is to make your homework and separate the future winners and the wannabes by your own DD. LG Chem is already chasing Tesla with its own plans announced today to build a Lithium Battery factory in China. One thing is for certain: Battery Industry insiders are building new production facilities as they see the coming demand - it will require new secure sources of Lithium. We will have to learn the new names like world leading Integrated Professional Lithium Producer Ganfeng Lithium and its partner International Lithium from Canada with Lithium projects in Ireland, Canada And Argentina.

Lithium Stocks Surging On $5B Tesla Gigafactory Plan To Ramp Up Mass-market Electric Car ILC.v TNR.v LIT WLC.to

  Now we have more details on Tesla Gigafactory and Elon Musk's plans  to produce Lithium Batteries on a mass scale and dramatically reduce the cost. This plan brings catalyst to the whole electric cars and energy storage industry. As we have discussed before, Lithium materials industry is getting the boost as well. Investors are taking notice and Western Lithium is already up 300% this year. Rodinia Lithium and International Lithium are getting the bids now as well. After the initial hype in the Lithium sector the main question was when the mass market for electric cars will be coming to life. Now we have this answer and access to the capital will define the new winners among Lithium Juniors. International Lithium with its strategic partner Ganfeng Lithium from China, one of the top Lithium Materials producers in the world, are getting ready for the surge in demand advancing Lithium projects in Ireland, Canada and Argentina.

International Lithium Strategic Partner Ganfeng Lithium Presentation ILC.v TNR.v LIT TSLA

  Tesla Gigafactory is driving a lot of interest to the Lithium sector these days. Lithium stocks were surging this week and it is time to find out who is who in this investment mega trend and separate the wannabes from serious players with projects, technicals teams and, the most important here, strong strategic partners available to provide capital and expertise to develop those projects. If this strategic partner, like in the case with International Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium from China,  happen to be one of the leaders among Integrated Professional Lithium Producers in the world it should deserve your attention. Do your own DD and always kick the tires - we will provide you with the initial information.

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