Peter Degraaf: Here Is How You Will Know If The Gold Bull Market Has Ended GLD, MUX, TNR.v, GDX

  

  Peter Degraaf presents very interesting set of charts in his big picture view at the Gold market. With JPMorgan chasing Bicoin success in the bubble exercise top Russian Sberbank is talking about its own version of the Crypto-Currency. Banks would like to control any currency in circulation and you have another 42 to chose from right now. Once this brave experiment with "Gold 2.0" - distraction of 99% from the real values ends in tears, Gold will remind everybody about its qualities and why China is buying so much Gold this year.

ZeroHedge:

Russia's Largest Bank Proposes Bitcoin Alternative

“We are at a new stage of technological development. I can’t imagine how it can be stopped,” Sberbank CEO Herman Gref tells reporters in Moscow.

Gref says virtual currencies need greater regulation

“These experiments must end in one or two crashes” before virtual currencies become firmly established, Gref says"

Rob McEwen: “The Next Run Will Be Driven By Gold Moving Higher, As Well As New Discoveries” MUX, TNR.v, GDX, GLD

  "Rob McEwen gives his view on the Gold market and what will be the driving force behind the next Bull Run. He is looking for the deals in this market environment and that new discoveries will be driving the successful companies backing them. Meanwhile Gold is under pressure today testing the recent lows. Equity markets are drifting lower and Interest Rates higher. Rob reminds us, that turnaround can be very fast as we saw this summer after Gold has bottomed out and miners were spiking up. Equity markets are very high now and Gold sector is very undervalued, people will start looking at the relative values at these levels."

The Chase Is On: JPMorgan Chase Building Bitcoin-Killer

"After years of allegations about involvement in Gold and Silver manipulation JPMorgan is chasing Bitcoin. So much is for Bitcoin "Gold 2.0" "Limited supply" - you can chose already from 43 listed crypto-currencies and now more are to come. After China and South Korea have banned Bitcoin from Financial Institutions the race is on among the Central Banks to outlaw it. Banksters are always ready to help here.  JPMorgan involvement in the "Bitcoin-Killer" is very interesting in light of recent reports from Turd Ferguson that for the long time JPMorgan is Net Long Gold and will stand to benefit from the Gold price going higher this time. Gold is spiking up this morning to $1260 and US Dollar is very close to the crucial 80.00 level - the end of 2013 will be very interesting to say at least."


Kitco:

Here Is How You Will Know If The Gold Bull Market Has Ended

Wednesday December 11, 2013 15:04

• Central banks will have stopped their money printing madness.
• The US Federal Government will have balanced its budget.
• China will have invested 20% of its trading surplus in gold.
• The US CPI will have peaked at a rate above 10%.
• The public in the USA, Canada, Australia and Europe will have bought gold with their savings, including a goodly portion of their tax free savings.
• The public in India and China will have turned from buyers to sellers.
• Sellers of gold will have a currency available to them that offers stability.
• Financial headlines will have featured stories of gold mining stocks that rose from pennies to a hundred dollars.  (In 1975 Lion Mines could be purchased at 0.07c a share – in 1980 the share price was $380!  Wharf Resources traded at 0.40c in 1975 – by 1980 the price had risen to $560).
• TV screens will have featured lineups of buyers at coin shops.
• Crude oil will have reached a record high price.
• Silver will have outperformed gold on a percentage basis.

           “There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold.
Yes, gold which never changes, which can be turned into ingots
bars, coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and
universally accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence” ………….French President Charles Degaulle.

     *****Charts courtesy Stockcharts.com unless indicated.

                   

Featured is the daily bar chart for gold bullion expressed in US dollars.  Price is breaking out from beneath five weeks of resistance.  The pattern is a bullish falling wedge.  A closing price above the blue arrow will confirm a major bottom at the $1200 level.  A subsequent breakout at the green arrow turns the trend bullish.  The supporting indicators are turning positive.  Our proprietary Gold Direction Indicator bottomed at 19% on December 3rd and closed at 51% on December 10th.

“Nations are not ruined by one act of violence, but gradually and in an almost imperceptible manner, by the depreciation of their circulating currency, through excessive quantity.”  …..Nicolaus Copernicus (quoted in 1525).

                  

Here is a longer-term look at the current gold bull market, with a log scale chart.  Notice the rising channel.  The supporting indicators have turned positive, including the important Accumulation/Distribution line.

Featured is the index that compares gold bullion to the DOW Jones Industrials.  The index is trying to bottom, and a closing price above the blue arrow will be the first sign of confirmation.  A breakout at the green arrow will convince a lot of investors to move funds from the stock market into gold.  The supporting indicators are positive.

                  

Featured is the daily bar chart for gold expressed in foreign currencies.  Price is breaking out here as well, and volume was very heavy (green arrow).  The supporting indicators have been showing bullish divergence and now they are turning positive.  A breakout at the blue arrow turns the trend bullish. 

This chart courtesy Cotpricecharts.com shows the ‘net short’ position of commercial gold traders fell for the fifth consecutive week, to 21,000 compared to 28,000 the week before.  As a percentage of open interest the number is a bullish 6%.  This compares to 5.5% on July 2nd.  That was just before gold rose from $118t6 to $1435.

        

Featured is GDX, the gold and silver producers ETF.  Price is breaking out from a falling wedge pattern (green box).  The supporting indicators have been showing bullish divergence and are now turning positive.  The increase in volume is indicative of strong hands buying from weak hands.  A breakout at the blue arrow will confirm the bottom, while a breakout at the green arrow turns the trend bullish. 

“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide…”              …..John Adams,  US President #2.

This chart courtesy Goldchartsrus.com shows the massive amount of gold that is moving into China via Hong Kong. As long as this trend continues, the fundamentals for gold are positive, and the bull market lives on.

 A trillion dollars is a stack of thousand dollar bills 63 miles high.  If the stack was toppled, you could drive for an hour before you would reach the end of it.”  …..Warren Bevan. 

              

Featured is the daily bar chart for silver.  Price broke out from a bullish falling wedge formation on December 9th, and confirmed the breakout the next day.  The supporting indicators are turning positive with lots of room to rise higher.  A breakout at the blue arrow will confirm a large ABC bottom, and a breakout at the green arrow turns the trend bullish. 

US Geological Society 2010 report:  “Silver will be the first element in the periodic table that would become extinct.”

This chart courtesy Cotpricecharts.com shows the ‘net short’ position of commercial silver traders slipped to 12,000, compared to 16,000 the week before.  As a percentage of open interest the number is a bullish 9%.

Happy trading!

By Peter Degraaf
www.pdegraaf.com"