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Saturday, November 22, 2008

US Dollar looks Exhausted to Rise on Fear, Bearish Rising Wedge Reversal is in the making?

US Dollar looks Exhausted to Rise on Fear, Bearish Rising Wedge Reversal is in the making? Last Thursday when Dow DIA H&S reversal was violated and waterfall started, US Dollar broke out Up of Double Top Reversal, but failed to make a definite High confirmed by Buy crossover in PPO. Hell broke lose after Mr. Paulson opened his mouth again. Jim Paplava has interesting theory that this is his intention: to drive lemmings into Treasuries in order to secure financing for all bailouts.
"The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has ballooned from $900 billion to more than $1.8 trillion. That’s 13% of GDP. The Treasury Department has telegraphed its intention to float $550 billion of debt in the fourth quarter and estimates it will have to float another $368 billion in the first quarter of 2009. Our national debt will then be close to 49% of GDP."

Nothing is certain apart from uncertainty nowadays, but US Dollar looks very exhausted on its chart. It has push up from Double Top formation refusing to Sell off on markets continued turmoil and Fear, but now is in a potential Rising Wedge formation with PPO still in a down trend pointing to lower resolution. Again TA only works for those who are making money and never does for those who can not.
If CitiCorp C will not be bail out this weekend in one form or another waterfall in markets could bring Fear back and US Dollar will Break Up. But formation is very favorable for the best outcome for Treasury: Market up DOW DIA in a Bullish Engulfing candles pattern, Fear down VIX came into Double Top stronger reversal pattern, US Dollar is weaker resolving downwards from rising Wedge. Inflation is welcome back, deflation Monster is going out of the picture. Last Friday Gold action could point to this resolution. Gold market is too small to accommodate all money running out of Treasuries when prices will go down from recent Top with almost Zero interest on up to 1 year papers. Manageable debasing of US Dollar will be in the picture back, wrong perception of Deflationary scenario in the Treasuries market will allow to sell US Corp. more Debt at lower prices then was imaginable before, but all this Flood will make this Bubble the biggest to fall so far. Gold will go higher recent highs and Silver will be in a parabolic move again.

GDX, SSRI, SLW, ABX, RGLD, AUY, TNR.v, CZX.v, OK.v, MAI.v, SST.v, BVG.v

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