TNR Gold TNR.v Los Azules property discussion

Jim Paplava on financialsense.com in the 3rd hour on 22.03.2008 discuss with Minera Andes CEO Los Azules - with scoping study well under way he is talking about resource estimation by the end of this year:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

The Economist special report on China

CHINA'S QUEST FOR RESOURCES
A ravenous dragon
Mar 13th 2008From The Economist print edition
China's hunger for natural resources has set off a global commodity boom. Developed countries worry about being left high and dry, but the biggest effects will be felt in China itself, says Edward McBride (interviewed here)

http://www.economist.com/specialreports/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10795714

TNR Gold TNR.v Los Azules drill results

I like how Stockwatch has put it this time:

"TNR's operator at Los Azules drills 200.8 m of 0.89% Cu"


http://www.stockwatch.com/swnet/newsit/newsit_newsit.aspx?bid=Z-C:TNR-1467694&symbol=TNR&news_region=C

TNR Gold TNR.v Files NI 43-101 Report on its Shotgun Project on SEDAR/Eureka Project Update

http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release.do?id=831787&k=

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC "'s calling..."

"Lundin's calling

Despite the runup in prices of various base metals, Lundin Mining's stock has been stuck in park. Then, when it told investors last month that analysts were being way too optimistic about its production levels, the stock price collapsed. Where other miners like BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) and Teck Cominco are up 20% to 60%, Lundin's shares sit more than 20% below where they were last March.
There could be reasons to hope for Lundin's future performance. Although zinc prices were soft in the fourth quarter and squeezed Lundin's profit margins, they've jumped 11% in the last week alone. Nickel's up even more at 17%. Yet investors might still want to be cautious. With commodities driven by demand, and a slowdown in the U.S. deepening, metal prices may very well sag again.
More than 700 investors have weighed in on the metals company, and less than a dozen think it's a canary in a coal mine. As many as 98% believe it will outperform the market. Top-rated CAPS All-Star UncommonSense, with a 93.96 player rating, viewed Lundin almost a month ago as not only a valuable long-term play in its own right, but thought its current depressed prices make it an outstanding acquisition target:
Lundin Mining ... mines copper, zinc, lead, and silver. They operate 5 mines, 4 of which regularly increase production levels every quarter (and usually by double digits yoy). Copper prices are firming up. ... They just finalized a deal to buy a major copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and they are in the process of developing a major surface mine in Russia. ... They have virtually no debt and ample room to expand in coming years as commodity prices continue to rapidly outpace inflation. ... Even if LMC is not taken over by an ambitious private equity group or a hungry metal conglomerate, its own individual growth prospects seem to shine.
CAPS investor MUGNUS agreed, writing in late January that growth prospects based on demand for what Lundin is pulling out of the ground suggests up is the only way for the stock to go:
Global buildout should prop this company up along with continued use of metals in more and more 'stuff.' Mines are in shorter and shorter order and the demand for the metals continues to rise annually. "

http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2008/03/10/tomorrows-monster-stocks.aspx

Google GOOG company is "addressing click fraud concern" - market is "addressing related valuation"

Google's customers are all linked to consumers, who are losing their purchasing power by the hour in recent recession. ROI on advertising is falling, Google's customers are cutting ADs spending, debt financed prosperity has lifted all boats and Google's ad campaigns looked like justified before, but now results are not so apparent: customers do not have money or maybe Google was never so effective to attract them after all?


"...speaking at the Bear Stearns Media Conference in Florida, Tim Armstrong, Google's president of North America advertising and commerce, said that the recent slowing in paid clicks "was intentional on our part" and will result in "a long-term benefit for our business."
That's because recent quality initiatives at the company have resulted in fewer unintentional clicks and a higher number of "conversions," or revenue generated by intentional clicks, according to Armstrong.
"Conversions actually go up for advertisers, which is positive, but there are less clicks overall," he said."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/google-execs-address-decrease-paid/story.aspx?guid=%7BC4C2D4C2%2D6453%2D41F3%2DA9A3%2D118EE4A0CC47%7D&siteid=yhoof

Google GOOG first stop pit is reached at USD435

Multiples compression has brought stock price of Google to the first stop pit at USD435. Now recession fears will make its way in compressing it further to USD326:

"Finally great company has missed even greater expectations, more analyses will come later, but for now it is apparent that all financials have deteriorated further: growth rate sliped at fastest pase ever. FCF in last year was 3.4 bil USD. Multiple at closing at USD564 FCF/MC (176.5 bil) was 51.9, compared to yahoo around 20. Recession will eat hard into Google revenue growth, CAPEX will hurt FCF further in 2008. Multiple of 50 Free Cash Flow to Market Cap is not sustainable any more, expect first stop at 40. It is 40*3.4=136 bil market cap, stock price USD435. With further recession fears multiple of 30 will come into play (50% over Yahoo!). It will reflect in stock price of USD326. On the Technical side stock has broken crucial uptred line on weekly bases. Technical signal SELL which has been reported here 2 weeks ago now confirmed by fundamentals."

http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2008/02/google-goog-web20-bubble-is-bursting.html

Henry Blodget is on the same page with that analysis here:

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/3/_google_to__350_

Google Disaster GOOG : Comscore Reports Awful January

Henry Blodget February 26, 2008 7:16 AM
Comscore reported shockingly bad US paid click performance for Google in January: flat growth year-over-year versus a 25% increase in Q4. Even if Comscore is only half right, this is a disaster.
Flash note from analyst Bob Peck at Bear Stearns:
comScore reported 532mn domestic paid clicks in Jan. 08, flat YoY, but down 12% sequentially (Jan. 08 vs. Oct. Oct. 07). The click through rate was the lowest since comScore stated reporting this data and was down 200bp from levels in 4Q and down 400bps from levels in 1Q of last year. While this is one data point for domestic google.com only and from one source, which may or may not be accurate, it is a concerning data point and somewhat reflects what we have heard from SEMs - that they were not seeing a high volume of clicks from consumers possibly due to the economic slowdown.Note that Google reported a 30% YoY growth rate in overall (global) paid leads in 4Q07 and comScore reported growth of 25% YoY for domestic google.com paid leads for 4Q. While not an apples-to-apples comparison, we will continue to monitor the comScore numbers for Feb and Mar before definitive conclusions can be drawn.
This report is so shocking it bears repeating: ComScore said Google's US revenue units (paid clicks) grew 25% last quarter--a quarter that disappointed Wall Street. In January, the same source, ComScore, says the same revenue units were flat.
What could be the explanation for this? Strapped shoppers not clicking on as many links. This is exactly why one insider argued last week that Google is very exposed to economic weakness--and why we have been concerned for six months that Google was not "immune" to a recession.
Yes, Comscore could be wrong, and, yes, it's only one data point. But hard to imagine how the bulls are going to spin this one.

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/2/2008/2/google_disaster__comscore_reports_awful_january

Silver Wheaton SLW Reports Record Annual Earnings and Operating Cash Flows

This silver rocket continues to rise, Silverstone Resources SST.v will be next to launch from 3.0 CAD base of consolidation.

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080225/0366140.html

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC insiders are buying again

It is important to note it is not Lundin Mining Buy back, but Lundin family is buying another 1.6 million shares at the recent market prices:


Feb 24/08
Feb 13/08
Ellegrove Capital Ltd.
Indirect Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
1,000,000
$7.830
Feb 24/08
Feb 12/08
Ellegrove Capital Ltd.
Indirect Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
300,000
$8.510
Feb 24/08
Feb 11/08
Ellegrove Capital Ltd.
Indirect Ownership
Common Shares
10 - Acquisition in the public market
300,000
$8.136

http://canadianinsider.ca/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=LUN

Google GOOG vs Commodities, Virtual vs Real

Shift to the real assets will continue further, once growth rate will slow even further compression of multiples will bring GOOG price further down to sustainable valuation:

http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2008/02/google-goog-web20-bubble-is-bursting.html

I could not agree more with this analyses:

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/2/google_very_exposed_to_us_recession__expert

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC Tenke Fungurume

Nothing is new here, DRC government would like to get bigger cut, the most important news are that contracts are valid and Tenke Fungurume NPV can sustain bigger payout to DRC.

"Without going into the exact demands made, the common themes identifiable from the statements released thus far seem to be:
More for the DRC government;
More for local communities;
No need to disrupt operations so long as companies accept the new terms."

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=40694

TNR Gold Private Placement at 0.4 CAD announced

TNR Gold TNR.v is definitely up to something if big boys are putting their money at 0.4CAD. Last PP was at 0.2CAD level and was well oversubscribe, within this year company has changed a lot. New shareholder base includes Prudent Bear fund. Insiders are holding over 23% of shares and were constantly buying. Its recent drilling at El Salto attracted attention from industry letter writers and Bob Moriarty has put a piece on his website 321gold.com after his visit to Argentina. This 4 million will help them move things forward, addition of drills will be nice to see. TNR will be presented at PDAC in Toronto with drill core on display, it must be impressive...

http://www.tnrgoldcorp.com/s/Events.asp

TNR Gold Announces $4 Million Private PlacementVANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Feb. 22, 2008) -
NOT FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES OR FOR RELEASE TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES.
TNR Gold Corp. (TSX VENTURE:TNR)(PINK SHEETS:TRRXF)("TNR" or the "Company") is pleased to announce a brokered private placement led by PI Financial Corp. (the "Agent") for up to 10,000,000 units (the "Units"), priced at $0.40 per Unit to raise up to $4,000,000 (the "Offering"). Each Unit consists of one common share and one-half of one transferable common share purchase warrant. Each whole warrant entitles the holder to purchase one additional common share of the Company at a price of $0.60 for a period of eighteen months from the date of closing. The Company has granted the Agent an over-allotment option for up to 2,000,000 additional Units.
As consideration for acting as agent, the Agent will receive a commission of 7% of the gross proceeds raised, payable in cash, in units or a combination of both, at the election of the Agent. Any units issued in lieu of cash commission will be on the same terms as the Units of the Offering. In addition, the Agent will be paid compensation options equal to 9% of the number of Units issued pursuant to the Offering. Each compensation option will entitle the Agent to purchase, at an exercise price of $0.50, one common share of the Company for a period of eighteen months from the date of closing.
All securities issued pursuant to this financing are subject to a 4-month hold period from the date of closing. The Offering is subject to TSX Venture Exchange approval and any regulatory approvals.
Proceeds of the private placement will be used to fund TNR's exploration projects in North and South America, and for general corporate purposes.
About TNR Gold Corp.
TNR Gold Corp is a base and precious metals exploration company focused on aggressively identifying new prospective projects as well as fostering work on its large portfolio of 16 properties in Argentina and Alaska. The company's focus over the next 12 months is the exploration and development of its Eureka, El Salto and El Tapau properties in Argentina and Shotgun project in Alaska.
On behalf of the board,
Paul Chung, Director

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC Tenke Fungurume

"Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc said on Wednesday it was confident a review of foreign mining contracts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo would allow it to go ahead and develop the Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine project in the African nation."

http://www.mining-journal.com/Breaking_News.aspx?breaking_news_article_id=4455

How much is Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC Value?

It depends on who is calculating and what information is availible to you. Recent drilling results after 18 months of drillng will be very handy.

With recent price at USD7.8 market cap of Lundin Mining is 3.1 billion. Tenke Fungurume reported almost 500 mln t of 2.6% Cu and 0.2% Co (lowest in inferred category splited almost 50%/50%). It was mentioned once that mineralised material is in the region of 1.5 billion t. If it could happen that resources will be reported at 1 billion t with 2.6% Cu and 0.2% Co it means 57 bil Lb Cu and 4.4 bil Lb Co with price for Cu in the ground of 0.1USD and Co 1.5USD rock value of Tenke Fungurume is 12.3 bil USD. Lundin Mining share is 24.75% (now before DRC resolution) it is 3.0 bil USD. So if this calculation could be true Lundin Mining now is worth only its Tenke Share.

Who will be the best to know whether there is really 1 billion t of 2.65 Cu and 0.2 Co?

Move of Freeport-McMoRan after DRC resolution will be very interesting.

You can put any discount here, slice it and dice it - the price will be determend by those who are ready to pay.

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC Warning...that it is on track to deliver.

We must be honest, first hand to ourselves, it took me a while to make up my mind with recent negative development and warning from the company:

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080214/0362003.html

I do not like it. Thats it. I have let myself into mining company story when market will judge its value not based on its ASSESTS and company's ability to develope them, but on recent earnings and market situation.

I could have done much better if I have sold more at the top and was ready to buy now more agressively, I am still human, thanks God.

Why I am not selling now? It could be a stubborn mistake and that is why I will not add to the position of shares and calls which is substantial part of my portfolio. Very important here: I will survive if it will go to zero.

I have read everything availible about the company, talked to the management, listened to CC and here is my judgement for myself:

1. This is an asset story for me.
2. My value is based on a take over value of company's assets with major catalyst in DRC resolution.
3. All generated cash flow is merely suport of development of its assets.
4. Very important: all recent negativity is not positive...but is not crucial to my game plan.
5. Today on CC I head most important thing for me: Phil Wright is right man for the job, he is cleaning the house and preparing the market to positive suprises, he has put everything straight and any upside from here: in better metall prices or Tenke resolution will shoot the stock up. On the other hand there could be total mess and that is why it is important that I will survive. I like how Lukas Lundin handle the situation: he belives in Tenke and brought Tenke Mining into Lundin Mining as fast as he could after DRC situation started, otherwise it have been bought already at a floor price. He has put his name on it. Bankrupt Lundin Mining is out of question for this man of honor. If the economy and metal prices stayed robust nothing would need to be done, they were able to make it. But we know what is happening and he acted promtly and we have a new guy in charge. The only positive thing here is the new guy and Lukas being at the front. One more time it is a matter of his name now. He never was bad, why should I think that he has lost his grip now? All these worries about the end of commodity bull is mere abberation for me. The biggest difference between Lundin Mining and Google is its tangible, desired assets, which can not be replicated at any human's will and ability. Now we have a problem, a major one, our ownership of the most important asset in DRC is under question. Once it will be resolved, share price will find its way up. And here is another very important thing: I will not mind that the value of Tenke Fungurume will be realised in Freeport-McMoRan shares, if they will bid for LMC. Here is why I am playing this game, unless goods are fall out of demand, the value of the shop (rocks) containing those goods will always be above zero. If it is not stolen, damaged (non recoverable) or pledged for loans (stolen by management and bankers) it will protect your downside.

As always do not forget to think while reading. Spelling is not working as usual, sorry.

TNR Gold TNR.v Bob Moriarty 321gold.com visit

So now we know who have moved the market, Bob Moriarty from widely followed 321gold.com prized the company, hopefully finaly management of TNR is up to something big:

Lots of Copper and Gold in Argentina

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty021508.html

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC Merrill Lynch launched coverage with a buy rating and a $12 target.

"Lundin Mining climbed 20 cents to $8.27 after Merrill Lynch launched coverage on the Vancouver-based global mining company with a buy rating and a $12 target. Shares of Lundin have dropped by half since July and by 40 per cent since October as the commodity rally faded and traders worried over the licensing status of the Tenke copper mine in the Democratic Republic on Congo."

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/story.html?id=1aac6af4-62b7-457e-aeb0-30692ae07aaa&k=75525

TNR Gold TNR.v is on Canaccord Watch List

They have recently added TNR.v to their Watch list with few other junior mining stocks. Canaccord was very active last few days and was buying in the market.

Lundin mining LUN.to LMC Tenke Fungurume

Lundin mining and Freeport-McMoRan are ready for a run - I do not expect any material changes to thier contracts, removed uncertainty will bring both stocks back onto uptrend.

Congo mining review results in two weeks - minister

By Joe Bavier
KINSHASA (Reuters) - Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will announce the results of a long-delayed review of mining contracts in two weeks' time, the central African country's deputy mines minister said on Thursday.
The former Belgian colony set up a commission to review some 60 mining contracts last year after a new government was named following the first democratic elections in more than four decades in 2006.
The process, which aims to clean up deals agreed during the chaos of a 1998-2003 war and ensure a fair share of mining revenues for the state, has been repeatedly delayed.
The contracts include deals with international firms such as Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc, BHP Billiton and Nikanor.
"It is in the interests of DRC and its investors that the elements of contracts that need to be adjusted are dealt with quickly and clearly," Deputy Mines Minister Victor Kasongo said in a statement.
Companies with contracts under review would receive a summary of the commission's findings in two weeks, the statement said. They would then be consulted on any changes or renegotiation of the current agreements.
On Tuesday, Kasongo announced during the Indaba mining conference in Cape Town that the commission was planning to fast-track the review process.
"Our task is to get these contracts through the process, and to ensure as a result that the mining companies in DRC combine high profits and shareholder value with absolute political and legal security," Kasongo said.
Last year the country's mines minister reassured investors, saying most mining companies operating in Congo would remain in the long term despite the review.
However, in November, a leaked preliminary report from the commission said that all the contracts under review should be cancelled or renegotiated and that no contract it saw was considered "viable" in its current form.
Interest in the former Belgian colony's once mighty mining sector -- a potential treasure trove of unexploited concessions -- has boomed since the 2006 elections, meant to draw a line under years of conflict and decades of mismanagement.

http://africa.reuters.com/business/news/usnBAN824493.html