Thursday, January 31, 2008

Lundin Mining LMC To Restate

No positive spinn on this one, it is dissapointing.
Now it is imporatnt to see how the company will manage the damage. It appeared to be rather technical: "(Company) ...advises that it has been informed by its tax advisors in Portugal that there has been misinterpretation of applicable tax legislation relating to certain tax rate reductions that have been claimed by Somincor, the Company's operating subsidiary in Portugal. Because a lower tax rate than allowed has been used, Somincor has under declared past tax contributions in Portugal."
CC will be handy and assurance from NEW CEO that this is the only issue with the company. This is my biggest concern. If it is the case, then from last 4 quaters of Earnings about 367.7 mil we have to substruct 55.o which will bring us to 312.7 "restated" earnings or 0.8USD EPS. With stock at USD7.88 we will be at P/E9.85. So it was hopefully already factored in the current share price. If the Company will keep market in the dark uncertanty will bring stock under pressure. Otherwise as I have stated before company will be bought out for its ASSETS, once Congo Tenke Fungurume will be resolved.
In any case it is not helping, and one more time do not bet your house on this one, as I have mentioned before.
My call is still in place on Tenke Fungurume Assets which are not factored in the price in any case now.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Yahoo! YHOO is toasted from here. WEB 2.0 Bubble is bursting right now.

Free cash flow in 2007 was 1337 mil USD, they are projecting now only 925 (mid 850-1000) for 2008, it is 31% drop! Now Yahoo is valued at 20.7 multiple to FCF in 2007. Going into recession ( I think as you remember that USA is in recession last three Qs) with this multiple and crashing FCF will make stock valuation even at 14.35USD as very rich.

Sunday, January 27, 2008

TNR Gold TNR.v El Tapau property

El Tapau Project

El Tapau belongs to an area of great vein and stockwork occurrence which might have an epithermal print and at the same time could represent the lateral mineralization to a porphyry system. Recently research has shown that the mineralization at the stockwork area is related to a granodioritic intrusion. Hence, this project has been considered as one of the first evidences of gold related to an intrusion system in the very prospective intrusion belt of the Colnaguil formation.

El Tapau is an exploration target for gold with strong anomalies in silver and other base metals. This target is represented, in most of the cases, by a group of structures of a west-northwest direction and some others of northwest-southwest direction.

Their density has allowed the determination, in this first exploration stage, of a gold anomaly generalized of 2,23 g/t in an area of 2500 square meters. In this sector, the structures are presented in a massive silica-sericite, stockwork-veining and brecciated veins.

Petra Gold is currently carrying out an evaluation program on the main structures, in which we have identified 3 areas of high mining interest containing the following characteristics:

1. Structure 300, of approximately 300 meters long and 2 meters wide. Its maximum values are 12,34 and 336 g/t of gold and silver respectively. Towards the west, there is a strong veining and fracturation with similar characteristics to be sampled and mapped in the near future.

2. Structure 400-500. It is represented by 2 main structures. One of them shows an array of auriferous stockwork of 300 and 400 meters long each. Both structures are accompanied by minor veins with gold values of 19,00 g/t in the southern sector and 6,6 g/t in the north sector.

3. Structure 600-700. This sector contains veins that till the exploration stage, are made evident showing a minor longitudinal development with density of 8 mineralized veins in the 200 square meters. Gold tenures up to 8,7 g/t were found. The geological observations would suggest that these veins could carry on its direction.

These 3 areas of interest that have been found in El Tapau show continuity, eastwards as well as westwards. Our professional team will be evaluating this continuity and the gold potential of this structure during October.

Petra Gold has detected more exploration targets in the area of the project that will be evaluated latter on and that will take part of the project integrally.

It can be concluded that El Tapau represents, at this step of exploration, an important gold target that guarantees further work for the discovery of precious and base metal ore body on the 3,400 hectares size property.

Roxmark Mines RMK.v new junior gold play

Very good recent news from Premier Gold spark the rally in the stock which is sill well below recent PP at 0.3CAD.
Defenetly worth to have a look and further study.

Drilling on Roxmark's Magnet Mine Property by Premier Gold Intersects Primary Target

Silverstone Resources SST.v Silver rocket in uncertain times

This company in my opinion is one of the best silver play in the market. Having the same business model as Silver Wheaton SLW this company still has favorable valuation and clear market sector with deals in the range of 50 million. Now company has finished PP and has over 50 million in cash which is very handy in recent credit crunch and hopefully will secure another silver stream. Silver chart looks very strong now and it is very good entry point around recent financing at 2.9CAD, it was done without any warrant attached and literally overnight. The biggest shareholders are Lundin Mining LMC and Capstone mining
Recent news about its own silver resources:
Latest presentation with SLW comparison valuation.

Lundin Mining LMC Tenke Fungurume update

Slide 17

Initial Estimates of Reserves 100MM metric tones 2.3%Cu 0.3%Co
Leach Tank construction

Slide 21

Less then half of 600 sq m concession explored, strike length over 80 km

Slide 22

+70km of drilling with 10 drill rigs (!) $ 20 million

Rebel ex-general, armed groups sign peace pact in DR Congo
As always now we can only speculate who would like to take Lundin Mining out, but it will make sense at least for FCX once the situation will be resolved in DRC.
Institutions continue to accumulate:

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Lundin Mining LMC DRC update

Freeport reiterated its previous forecast of achieving first production next year at the Tenke Fungurume mine, in the DRC, despite a mining contract review being carried out by the country's government.
Jitters rippled through the mining community in November last year, after an unofficial report was leaked to the media claiming that almost all of the 60-plus mining contracts in the DRC would be affected by the review.
Since then, however, the government has been largely silent, in the public domain at least, over the status of the review.
“There has been no official word from the government on that process...but ...the government is encouraging us to go forward with the project and to go forward faster and bigger,” Adkerson said in response to an analyst question.
Tenke Fungurume could be the largest, undeveloped, high-grade copper/cobalt project in the world, according to the company, which has budgeted $500-million in capital expenditure for the project this year.
Freeport-McMoRan had also committed to finance an electrical power project that would service the Tenke Fungurume mine, VP for communications Bill Collier told Mining Weekly Online.
He declined to provide further details regarding the project or what costs would be involved.
Freeport-McMoRan owns a 57,75% stake in the mine, while Vancouver-based Lundin Mining holds 24,75% and DRC State-owned miner Gecamines owns the balance.
'the government is encouraging us to go forward with the project '
Adkerson said that the company was pursuing an “aggressive” exploration programme, aimed at identifying further potential for mines on the Tenke Fungurume orebody.
About 22% of the group's exploration budget for this year had been allocated to Tenke Fungurume, and the nearby Kisanfu prospect, also in the DRC.
(This will be next catalyst S.)
The current project, which will have its first full year of output in 2010, will produce an average of 250-million pounds of copper and 18-million pounds of cobalt a year.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Cover your shorts, sell Puts, Luck will be on the long side.

VIX and VXN are hitting highs at August level or higher. 75 point cut and PPT will try hard to turn the market now. Looks like capitulation to me, some juniors are moving higher already. Once world will realise that the End of the World is postponed, flood of liquidity will rise commodity boats and PGM again.

TNR Gold TNR.v Update

According to recent filing Prudent Bear Fund of David Tice has accumulated 1.5 million shares of TNR Gold.

Company has participated in Vancouver Gold Show and CEO Gary Schellenberg made an interview with Al Korelin, link is on the web site of TNR Gold or go to: o1.22.2008

First hole is finished on El Salto, results are expected within next three weeks, mineralisation was all way through the hole, now the grade will be important. They have started second hole.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Lundin Mining LMC Update

Move to appointment of the new CEO should be only first step in recent shake up of the Company. Guys inside looks like understand the situation and new leadership was needed for a change. We can expect few new moves within the company, it is going to reposition itself. Now market is accounting its value as a Zinc company when in fact only around of 25% of its revenue comes from Zinc. From now on much attention will be put to execution and positioning of the company in the investment community. Stock is among 20 top shorted stocks on TSX now and shareholders definitely must demand better communication from new CEO. Actually the guy was brought back from the retirement and he was in charge before for Alumbrera and Tenke Mining during the war after that. The major value which will bring totally new meaning to the company is Tenke Fungurume. PHD was drilling for 20 months now without reporting any new resources, they can not promote it before the official resolution from DRC. They are behind the schedule on time and money, but everything is speeding up now with 20 new guys put in place in DRC and the guy in charge there is from Indonesia development team. Latest reported rout was actually some kind of bogus fraud from locals, somebody promised to villagers employment at that day and even charged them with 30 bucks each. There is no any serious issues at the moment and work is going at full speed. All this information based on rumours and unofficial sources. Shorts will be smashed to the wall as soon as market will realise real asset value in this story.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

TNR Gold TNR.v first hole hit Cu-Mo mineralisation at El Salto

TNR Gold Corp.: 3,000 Metre Drill Program Resumes at El SaltoWednesday January 16, 5:15 pm ET
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Jan. 16, 2008) - TNR Gold Corp. ("TNR") (TSX VENTURE:TNR - News) is pleased to announce they have resumed drilling on its' 100% optioned El Salto Project after a short holiday season break. TNR is committed to a minimum 3,000 metre drill program on the project which is located in the San Juan province, Argentina.
The planned drilling program is focusing on several well-defined, chargeability anomalies delineated by a recent 3D IP survey on the property. The first drill hole (ES-07-01), which is currently at a depth of 345 metres, is testing the northeastern margin of potassically altered and copper minereralized granitic porphyry with a flanking weak to moderate chargeability anomaly. The drill hole is planned to a depth of 500 metres. Drill core from the hole is presently being logged and sampled. An inspection of core by company's geologists on-site have noted that the drilled core length (0.0m-345.0m) is variably mineralized with sulphides (pyrite, chalcopyrite and molybdenite). The sulphide mineralization occurs in breccias, porphyry dikes and altered metasedimentary country rocks along the margin of the intrusion. The second drill hole, which is commencing immediately, is located 100-125m west from the western margin of the porphyry intrusion and will test a strong chargeability anomaly with the coincident copper-molybdenum mineralization in the intrusion. The remaining drill holes will be completed by mid February and have been planned to test both weak and strong chargeability anomalies with the coincident known and unknown copper and molybdenum geochemical anomalies on surface.
TNR has completed a reconnaissance mapping/prospecting and sampling program during the 2007 field season. The results of the program, and historical data suggests the property is predominantly underlain by sedimentary (quartzite, arenite) and mafic volcanic (basalt) sequences, which have been intruded by intrusions of gabbro and granite to granodiorite. A recently completed IP survey suggests the two feldspar-phyric granitic bodies intruding the northwest-trending sedimentary sequences, which underlie the central part of the property, suggests the two intrusions may be interconnected under the sedimentary cover, hence possibly representing a single intrusion.
A total of 216 rock chip/grab and 20 stream-sediment samples were collected in a 2007 field season and sent to Alex Stewart Assayers (ISO9002) in Argentina for multi-element analyses. The rock chip/grab samples yielded anomalous to highly anomalous copper values ranging from 500 ppm to 4000 ppm (72 samples) and one sample assayed greater than 10,000 ppm. A vuggy silica float sample assayed 4.23 g/t gold and 11.7 g/t silver and is strongly anomalous both in arsenic (4096 ppm) and antimony (445 ppm).
The El Salto property, consisting of 3300 hectares in the San Juan Province, is located within the "Yellow Belt" district of San Juan which hosts the two well-known copper deposits, the El Pachon Deposit (724 MT @ 0.65% Cu) in Argentina, and the Los Pelambres Mine (1487 MT @ 0.66% Cu) near the Chile-Argentine border (Falconbridge/Xstrata and Antofagasta web sites).
This news release has been prepared under the supervision of Ike Osmani, P.Geo, TNR's qualified person on this news release.
On behalf of the board,
Gary Schellenberg, President
In a plane English: there is visual Copper in the core as well as Moly, question now is about grade: will it be economical or not (preferably more then 0.5% Cu). They have hit all right minerals associated with Porphyry copper deposit, metal is there - now the question is grade and size of that Rock. Surface target based on 3D Ip is within frame of 1.5km by 4km over 3km sq in total Cu anomaly. Assay should take around three to four weeks for the first hole.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

TNR Gold TNR.v Update

You can guess that TNR Gold will be one of my high risk Top Picks for 2008, new presentation is availible on website:
Macro analyses is so far on our side: we are in stagflation in USA and inflationary prosperity in oil producing and developing countries. Chinese Dragon is still hungry and his appetite is very different from Chines stock market bubble. One more time: it is planed economy when it is concerned infrastructure development.
TNR Gold this year should show results of thier new strategy and stable shareholder base, major developments:
1. Insiders are constantly buying:
2. Los Azules is under drill now with 10000 m and Lundins have participated in PP by Operator Minera Andes MAI.v, scoping study will reveal actual size of this 6-10 billion Cu target.
3. El Salto is under drill 3000 m, first hole is going well, pictures are on the web site. According to one broker core looks interesting...
4. Eurika will be next with 20 drill holes of initial drilling.
5. El Tapau drilling is planed for 3000 m.
Stock has been consolidating at around CAD0.3 level and is ready for Juniors Cash Inflow Tide.
Once investors will realise that the end of the world is postponed and all that created money supply is finding its way into Sure Things: Gold, Silver and Commodities will skyrocket. Any positive news will start this rocket as well.